Amazon’s latest artificial intelligence tool is a piece of image recognition software that can learn to guess a human’s age. The feature is powered by Amazon’s Rekognition platform, which is a developer toolkit that exists as part of the company’s AWS cloud computing service. So long as you’re willing to go through the process of signing up for a basic AWS account — that entails putting in credit card info but Amazon won’t charge you — you can try the age-guessing software for yourself.
In what sounds like a smart move on Amazon’s end, the tool gives a wide range instead of trying to pinpoint a specific number, along with the likelihood that the subject of the image is smiling or wearing glasses. Microsoft tried the latter approach back in 2015 with its own AI tool, resulting in some hilariously bad estimates that exposed fundamental weaknesses in how these types of image recognition algorithms function. Still, these experiments are more for fun, and both companies’ cracks at age-guessing algorithms are a good way to mess around with AI if you’re so inclined.
For instance, here’s Amazon’s tool trying to digest an old photo of me in my early twenties:
Here’s what it had to say about a more recent photo:
And here’s what it has to say about a drastically different image of me from nearly ten years ago, sans glasses and short hair:
Needless to say, I am not 30, 47, or any age in between in any of those photos. Microsoft is equally guilty of thinking I am far older than I actually am — perhaps a product of the beard, at least for the first two images. When giving both tools a photo of clean-shaven Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, we get a slightly more accurate description: Amazon thinks Nadella is between 48 and 68 years old, while Microsoft’s tool thinks he’s 67. (Nadella is 49 years old). Trying Bezos yields similar results that are only kinda, sorta on point, yet still within a range of acceptability.
The goal here of course is not to try and trick the software. After all, these tools are not supposed to 100 percent accurate all of the time, and purely for fun in Microsoft’s case. Amazon, on the other hand, offers Rekognition to developers who are interested in implementing general object recognition, labeling, and other likeminded features for their products and services.
In this case, Amazon’s Jeff Barr sees the age range feature as a way to “power public safety applications, collect demographics, or to assemble a set of photos that span a desired time frame,” he writes in a blog post. For those purposes, Amazon’s tool may be good enough. Even when it isn’t, we know it will be getting better all the time, thanks to deep learning methods that train it using billions of publicly available images.
In an ironic twist, on the day that President Trump announces that former Goldman COO Gary Cohn will be in charge of the "phenomenal" plan that will "massively cut taxes," Senator Elizabeth Warren has written to Goldman's Lloyd Blankfein seeking details on the extent to which the bank's employees were involved in drafting of the recent executive orders on banking and fiduciary regulations. Furthermore directly questions Cohn's willingness to "help middle-class families, and will instead favor Wall Street over Main Street."
In what is clearly a cheap shot aimed at Gary Cohn, Reuters reportsDemocratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Baldwin asked Goldman Sachs Group CEO Lloyd Blankfein for details on "lobbying" activities in the bank related to review of the Dodd-Frank Act and the Obama-era fiduciary rule on financial advice. Blankfein was also asked to detail the profits Goldman would make if these reforms came into effect. The senators have asked for any communication between the bank's employees and Cohn, Mnuchin, nominee for the SEC chair Jay Clayton and chief strategist Steve Bannon.
"We've had no involvement in the drafting of any executive orders," a Goldman spokesman said on Friday.
February 9, 2017
We are writing today regarding the relationship between Goldman, Sachs & Co. ("Goldman Sachs") and Mr. Gary Cohn, became the Director of President Trump's National Economic Council ("NEC") in January 2017. We are concerned that Mr. Cohn- who received an the extraordinary $284 million handout from Goldman Sachs as he left his 25-year career with the firm-will be unable to develop economic policies that will help middle-class families, and will instead favor Wall Street over Main Street. We hope you can provide us with information that will assuage our concerns.
The NEC is responsible for "coordinat[ing] the economic policy-making process with respect to domestic and international economic issues" and "coordinat[ing] economic policy advice to the President." The leader of the NEC must approach economic policy making in an objective manner, paying as much attention to the needs of the middle-class workers that drive our economy as the billionaires that sit at the top. In December 2016, President Trump appointed Mr. Cohn as his NEC Director, promising that he would "craft economic policies that ... create many great new opportunities for Americans who have been struggling. "
Mr. Cohn's close financial ties to Goldman Sachs, however, suggest that he may not be able to fulfill the President's promise. As you know, Mr. Cohn worked at Goldman Sachs for 25 years prior to joining the NEC in January.4 And just four days after President Trump's inauguration, we learned that Mr. Cohn's move to the White House helped him "unlock more than $284 million in pent up bonuses, stock holdings and other investments" in Goldman Sachs, including "$65 million in cash to cover his potential future bonuses at the bank" and "$220 billion of Goldman equity he already held or was awaiting, as well as stakes in company-run investment funds. "
The executive orders released by President Trump on Friday last week raise our concerns about the degree to which Mr. Cohn's advice to President Trump is good for Wall Street, but bad for Americans. Mr. Trump released two executive orders with Mr. Cohn at his side, both from the Wall Street wish list: one promised to roll back Dodd-Frank rules put in place after the 2008 Financial Crisis, and another put in place a process that could eliminate new requirements that investment advisers act in their clients best interests. 6 Mr. Cohn then appeared as "the face" of these efforts, stating that he planned to "attack all aspects of Dodd Frank." Goldman Sachs would be a major beneficiary of these efforts to deregulate the financial industry; the company's stock rose by almost 5%, increasing your company's market capitalization by $4.1 billion - the day of President Trump's announcement.
Last week, we sent a letter to Mr. Cohn requesting that he recuse himself from decisions related to Goldman Sachs during his term as NEC Director.9 As we await his response, we would like to request additional information from you to better understand the relationship between Goldman Sachs and Mr. Cohn. Please provide responses to our requests no later than February 22, 2017:
1. Have individuals employed by Goldman Sachs had any communications with Mr. Cohen related to the Trump Administration executive orders or economic policies since he began his service as Director of the National Economic Council? If so, please provide us with information on who these individuals were, the date, times, and nature of these communications, and any documents related to these communications.
2. Mr. Trump named Mr. Cohn as his chief economic adviser on December 12, 2016. Did individuals employed by Goldman Sachs have any communications with Mr. Cohn related to the Trump Administration executive orders or economic policies during the presidential transition? If so, please provide us with information on who these individuals were, the date, times, and nature of these communications, and any documents related to these communications.
3. Mr. Cohn is not the only Goldman Sachs alumnus in the Trump Administration. Steven Mnuchin, a former Goldman partner, has been nominated to be Treasury Secretary. Dina Powell, who ran Goldman's philanthropic activities, has been named as an Adviser to the President. 11 Goldman has been a client of Jay Clayton, the nominee for SEC Chair, in his practice at Sullivan and Cromwell. And chief strategist Steve Bannon is a former Goldman Sachs investment banker.
Have individuals employed by Goldman Sachs had any communications with these Goldman alumni related to the Trump Admirtistration executive orders or economic policies since they began their service in the Trump Administration? If so, please provide us with information on who these individuals were, the date, times, and nature of these communications, and any documents related to these communications.
4. On February 3, 2017, President Trump signed an executive order directing the Secretary of the Treasury to "report to the President. .. on the extent to which existing laws, ... regulations, guidance, reporting and record-keeping requirements, and other Government policies" inhibit the Administration's "Core" financial principles. The President characterized this order as an attempt to "cut[] a lot out of Dodd-Frank." Dismantling Dodd-Frank would be a financial boon for large banks, including Goldman Sachs.
a. Does Goldman Sachs support the policies in this executive order?
b. What financial benefits does Goldman Sachs expect to gain as the result of the changes in the executive order?
c. Has Goldman Sachs lobbied the Trump administration, or will they do so moving forward, on the policies related to this executive order?
5. Mr. Trump signed a second executive order on February 3, 2017, delaying implementation of the Department of Labor's fiduciary rule, which prohibits financial firms from compensating financial advisers in ways that reward them for making recommendations that are not in their clients' best interest. President Trump's executive order directs the Department of Labor to conduct a redundant "economic and legal analysis" of the rule's impact-potentially halting the consumer-friendly policy that was set to go into effect in April 2017.
a. Does Goldman Sachs support the policies in this executive order?
b. What financial benefits does Goldman Sachs expect to gain as the result of the changes in the executive order?
c. Has Goldman Sachs lobbied the Trump administration, or will they do so moving forward, on the policies related to this executive order?
Thank you for your prompt response to our inquiries. If you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to reach out to Brian Cohen of Senator Warren's staff at 202-224-4543 or Brian Conlan of Senator Baldwin's staff at 202-224-5653.
* * *
We are sure the leftists will be pleased to see this mostly political posturing letter - after Warren's indignance during the week - means she is not giving up playing hardball.
Presumably, we will have to see just how "massive" the middle-class tax cuts are in the coming weeks to judge whether Liz Warren and her posse are missing the point entirely.
At the same time that President Trump swore in Senator Jeff Sessions as Attorney General, he signed three executive actions on crime and public safety, including one that targets drug cartels.
"I'm signing three executive actions today designed to restore safety in America,” Trump said in the Oval Office after swearing in Jeff Sessions as attorney general.
"These dangerous times require a determined attorney general," Trump said at an Oval Office ceremony for Sessions, who said rising crime is a "dangerous, permanent trend" in the United States and also promised to "end this lawlessness" of illegal immigration.
It's unclear what any of the actions would do precisely, and the White House did not immediately provide copies of what Trump had signed. Trump said he is directing the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security “to undertake all necessary and lawful actions to break the back of the criminal cartels that have spread across our nation and destroying the blood of our youth.”
Another action, Trump said, establishes a Justice Department task force aimed at reducing violent crime and orders the agency to develop a plan to stop crimes against law enforcement officers, or as Reuters put it, an executive order directing the DOJ to create a plan to "stop crime."
Crushing crime with the stroke of a pen.
As Bloomberg adds, President Trump signs three directives today, including one that will direct DHS and DOJ to “break the back of criminal cartels.” Trump also signs DOJ directive aimed at stopping violent crime, and another DOJ directive to implement a plan to stop crime and violence against police.
With "racist" Sessions in charge of Justice and "racist" Trump calling for an end to violence against the police, we can only imagine what fiction BlackLivesMatters protesters will start to peddle as racial tensions are set to escalate once again.
We discuss Priceline setting a new record high as another example of an overvalued tech stock in an overall tech bubble with a 41 p/e, very reminiscent of the 2000 tech induced market crash, with a bunch of over valued tech stocks leading the markets to unsustainable record highs, only to crash to record lows wiping out years of gains in six months. We have hit the Euphoria phase of the stock market bubble!
When will Central Banks stop doing this bubble strategy with Monetary Policy, it ends the same way every Bubble Monetary Cycle, in a Financial Market Crisis and Economic Crash. James Bullard`s dovish comments today inspired more bubble building, Central Bankers are so irresponsible and asleep at the wheel. They deserve to start going to prison for this crap, nobody can be this incompetent, especially after what just happened with regard to excess risk taking inspired by Fed Monetary Policy in the 2007 Financial Market Crisis!
Snap Inc., the company behind messaging app Snapchat, will in fact be relying on both Amazon Web Services (AWS) and the Google Cloud Platform for its public cloud needs over the next few years.
Today Snap followed up on its S-1 paperwork kicking off the process to go public by releasing an update to its form S-1 conveying, among other things, that it has agreed to spend $1 billion on AWS between January 2017 and December 2021.
The deal ramps up over time: Snap must pay $50 million for AWS services this year, $125 million in 2018, $200 million in 2019, $275 million in 2020, and $350 million in 2021, according to the filing. “If we fail to meet the minimum purchase commitment during any year, we are required to pay the difference,” Snap said.
This builds on a pre-existing relationship between Snap and AWS, one that wasn’t disclosed in the initial S-1. It turns out Snap signed an “enterprise agreement” with AWS in March and that was amended that same month and then amended again this month — hence the $1 billion terms. “Such agreement will continue indefinitely until terminated by either party,” Snap noted.
The $1 billion agreement is just half of what Snap has agreed to spend on the Google cloud. But the AWS commitment is still notable, for a few reasons.
First, it’s a big number, even for public cloud market leader AWS — as big as AWS’ deals with the CIA ($600 million) and Salesforce ($400 million) combined.
Second, the amount suggests that Snap might well end up using AWS for more than just “redundant infrastructure support,” even though that’s what Snap says the AWS deal is for.
Third, the AWS cloud is available in China, unlike the Google cloud, at least for the moment. If Snapchat pops up in China over the next few years, it might well be doing so with the help of AWS, not Google. Which is why it’s important to have AWS now, not later.
With that said, $1 billion isn’t exactly a game changer for AWS in the same way that $2 billion is for the Google Cloud. In the fourth quarter of 2016 AWS reeled in $3.53 billion in revenue. In all of 2016, revenue came out to a staggering $12.2 billion. So yeah, big, but not yooge.
Babak Hodjat believes humans are too emotional for the stock market. So he's started one of the first hedge funds run completely by artificial intelligence.
"Humans have bias and sensitivities, conscious and unconscious," says Hodjat, a computer scientist who helped lay the groundwork for Apple's Siri. "It's well documented we humans make mistakes. For me, it's scarier to be relying on those human-based intuitions and justifications than relying on purely what the data and statistics are telling you."
Babak Hodjat
Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
Hodjat, with 21 patents to his name, is co-founder and top scientist of Sentient Technologies Inc., a startup that has spent nearly a decade—largely in secret—training an AI system that can scour billions of pieces of data, spot trends, adapt as it learns and make money trading stocks. The team of technology-industry vets is betting that software responsible for teaching computers to drive cars, beat the world's best poker players and translate languages will give their hedge fund an edge on Wall Street pros.
The walls of Sentient's San Francisco office are dotted with posters for robots-come-alive movies such as "Terminator." Inside a small windowless trading room, the only light emanates from computer screens and a virtual fire on a big-screen TV. Two guys are quietly monitoring the machine's trades—just in case the system needs to be shut down.
“If all hell breaks loose," Hodjat says, "there is a red button."
Sentient won't disclose its performance or many details about the technology, and the jury is out on the wisdom of handing off trading to a machine. While traditional hedge funds including Bridgewater Associates, Point72 and Renaissance Technologies have poured money into advanced technology, many use artificial intelligence to generate ideas—not to control their entire trading operations.
All the same, Sentient, which currently trades only its own money, is being closely watched by the finance and AI communities. The venture capital firm owned by Hong Kong's richest man, Li Ka-shing, and India's biggest conglomerate, Tata Group, are among backers who have given the company $143 million. (Beyond trading, Sentient's AI system is being applied to a separate e-commerce product.)
Trading is "one of the top 10 places that AI can make a difference," says Nello Cristianini, a professor of artificial intelligence at the University of Bristol who has been advising Sentient. "A trading algorithm can look at the data, make a decision, act and repeat—you can have full autonomy."
Sentient's team includes veterans of Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft and other technology companies. They're part of a small group in Silicon Valley using expertise in data science and the field of artificial intelligence known as machine learning to try and disrupt financial markets.
AI scientists typically have no interest in working for a hedge fund, says Richard Craib, who started the AI hedge fund Numerai. "But they may want to mess around with data sets." Numerai's system makes trades by aggregating trading algorithms submitted by anonymous contributors who participate in a weekly tournament where prizes are awarded in Bitcoin. It recently raised $6 million from investors including Howard Morgan, the co-founder of the quant investment management firm Renaissance Technologies. "It's entirely a data science problem," Craib says.
Another company, called Emma, started a hedge fund last year based on an artificial intelligence system that can write news articles.
Employees of Sentient Technologies in San Francisco.
Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
Hodjat of Sentient spent much of his career focused on the language-detection technology behind smartphone digital assistants. Several employees from his previous company, Dejima, went on to create Apple's Siri. Rather than join, he chose to focus on advances in artificial intelligence. His career goals didn't include finance, but he sees markets as one of the most promising applications for the technology. The vast amounts of publicly available data, along with stronger computers to analyse it for patterns, make the field an ideal fit. "That is the fuel for AI," he says.
Sentient's system is inspired by evolution. According to patents, Sentient has thousands of machines running simultaneously around the world, algorithmically creating what are essentially trillions of virtual traders that it calls "genes." These genes are tested by giving them hypothetical sums of money to trade in simulated situations created from historical data. The genes that are unsuccessful die off, while those that make money are spliced together with others to create the next generation. Thanks to increases in computing power, Sentient can squeeze 1,800 simulated trading days into a few minutes.
An acceptable trading gene takes a few days and then is used in live trading. Employees set goals such as returns to achieve, risk level and time horizon, and then let the machines go to work. The AI system evolves autonomously as it gains more experiences.
Sentient typically owns a wide-ranging batch of U.S. stocks, trading hundreds of times per day and holding positions for days or weeks. "We didn't impose that on the system," says Jeff Holman, the company's chief investment officer. "The artificial intelligence seems to agree with what you get from human intelligence that it's better to spread your bets and have a more diversified portfolio."
As impressive as Sentient's technology appears, it's hard to know if it works. The company says the AI system is beating internal benchmarks, but won't disclose what those are. It shares little about the data used for the AI's decision-making and isn't profitable. The company plans to bring in outside investors later this year. Holman, a Wall Street veteran who joined last year, said the company is limited on what it can say by U.S. Securities Exchange Commission rules restricting marketing by hedge funds that are raising money. "The platform is solid," he says. "It doesn't look like any other strategy I've seen."
Anthony Ledford, the chief scientist at the $19 billion hedge fund Man AHL in London, warns of putting too much faith in this branch of artificial intelligence without more evidence. Man AHL uses machine learning for a portion of its clients money, and Ledford is encouraged by the results. While the company is exploring a standalone machine-learning strategy, he says it's too early to declare success. "There's a lot of hype and promise," Ledford says. "But when you actually ask people how many hundreds of millions dollars they are trading, many of them don't come back with much at all."
Little performance data is available about AI-focused hedge funds. One index that tracks 12 pools that utilize AI as part of its core strategies, called Eurekahedge AI Hedge Fund Index, returned 5 percent last year. That's slightly better than the average hedge fund, but trailed the S&P 500.
Tristan Fletcher, who wrote his doctoral thesis on machine learning in financial markets and works for a hedge fund, says investors may be reluctant to turn over their money completely to a machine. "I know how conservative investors are and I know of no one who would put their money in a system that's fully systematic," says Fletcher. "Machine learning isn't a panacea for everything. You need people who have literal thinking."
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Chen Chen worked for Sentient until 2012 as an analyst. In August 2011, while the company was still known as Genetic Finance and operating in secret, the system was trading when Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S.'s credit rating for the first time, sending markets into turmoil. Chen, now a trader in Hong Kong, went back to review the system's performance for the day and saw it had outperformed the market and made money. He notes that there was no precedent for a U.S. downgrade and wonders how Sentient's AI system made its decisions. "That was a big surprise," he says.
Photo: The Washington Post, Washington Post/Getty Images
Myth
"Human trafficking only happens in other countries. It does not happen in the United States."
Myth
"Human trafficking only happens in other countries. It does not happen in the United States."
Photo: OMAR TORRES, AFP/Getty Images
FACT
"Human trafficking exists in cities, suburbs and rural towns across the United States. Human slavery may even exist in your community. "
FACT
"Human trafficking exists in cities, suburbs and rural towns across the United States. Human slavery may even exist in your community. "
Photo: LUIS ACOSTA, AFP/Getty Images
Myth
"Human trafficking only happens to poor women. "
Myth
"Human trafficking only happens to poor women. "
Photo: Sandy Huffaker, Getty Images
Fact
"Victims of human trafficking can be any age, race, gender or nationality. They can be men or women, young or old, American or from abroad, with or without legal status. "
Fact
"Victims of human trafficking can be any age, race, gender or nationality. They can be men or women, young or old, American or from abroad, with or without legal status. "
Photo: Sandy Huffaker, Getty Images
"Victims are often lured with false promises of well-paying jobs or are manipulated by people they trust. Instead, they are forced into prostitution, domestic servitude, farm or factory labor, or other types of forced labor."
"Victims are often lured with false promises of well-paying jobs or are manipulated by people they trust. Instead, they are forced into prostitution, domestic servitude, farm or factory labor, or other types of
"Traffickers prey on victims with little or no social safety net. They look for victims who are vulnerable because of their illegal immigration status, limited English proficiency, and those who may be in vulnerable situations due to economic hardship, political instability, natural disasters or other causes."
"Traffickers prey on victims with little or no social safety net. They look for victims who are vulnerable because of their illegal immigration status, limited English proficiency, and those who may be in
Myth "It’s easy to spot victims of human trafficking."
Myth "It’s easy to spot victims of human trafficking."
Photo: Globo, Globo Via Getty Images
Fact
"Trafficking victims are often hidden in plain sight, voiceless and scared. You can help bring the perpetrators to justice. Everyone has a role to play in combating human trafficking. We rely on tips from the public to take down human trafficking organizations. "
"Trafficking victims are often hidden in plain sight, voiceless and scared. You can help bring the perpetrators to justice. Everyone has a role to play in combating human trafficking. We rely on tips from
Myth
"If a victim of human trafficking speaks out, they will be removed or deported from the U.S. "
Myth
"If a victim of human trafficking speaks out, they will be removed or deported from the U.S. "
Photo: Globo, Globo Via Getty Images
Fact
"In October 2000, Congress created the "T" nonimmigrant status by passing the Victims of Trafficking and Violence Protection Act (VTVPA). The legislation offers protection to victims and allows law enforcement agencies to investigate and prosecute human trafficking. "
"In October 2000, Congress created the "T" nonimmigrant status by passing the Victims of Trafficking and Violence Protection Act (VTVPA). The legislation offers protection to victims and allows law
Myth
"Human trafficking and human smuggling are the same."
Myth
"Human trafficking and human smuggling are the same."
Photo: Globo, Globo Via Getty Images
Fact
"Human trafficking is exploitation-based. Exploitation is defined as sex trafficking in which a commercial sex act is induced by force, fraud or coercion, or if the person forced to perform such an act is under 18 years of age."
"Human trafficking is exploitation-based. Exploitation is defined as sex trafficking in which a commercial sex act is induced by force, fraud or coercion, or if the person forced to perform such an act is
"Human smuggling is transportation-based and involves deliberately breaking immigration laws when bringing people into the U.S. "
KEEP CLICKING TO SEE HOW SEX WORKERS HAVE LIVED IN OTHER PLACES.
"Human smuggling is transportation-based and involves deliberately breaking immigration laws when bringing people into the U.S. "
KEEP CLICKING TO SEE HOW SEX WORKERS HAVE LIVED IN OTHER PLACES.
Photo: Globo, Globo Via Getty Images
1956: Clients getting acquainted with two prostitutes at a bar in Guatemala City, capital of Guatemala. (Photo by Evans/Three Lions/Getty Images)
1956: Clients getting acquainted with two prostitutes at a bar in Guatemala City, capital of Guatemala. (Photo by Evans/Three Lions/Getty Images)
Photo: Evans, Getty Images
1956: Two clients dancing with prostitutes at a brothel in Guatemala City, capital of Guatemala. (Photo by Evans/Three Lions/Getty Images)
1956: Two clients dancing with prostitutes at a brothel in Guatemala City, capital of Guatemala. (Photo by Evans/Three Lions/Getty Images)
Photo: Evans, Getty Images
1956: A client paying a prostitute at a brothel in Guatemala City, capital of Guatemala. (Photo by Evans/Three Lions/Getty Images)
1956: A client paying a prostitute at a brothel in Guatemala City, capital of Guatemala. (Photo by Evans/Three Lions/Getty Images)
Photo: Evans, Getty Images
1956: Well dressed prostitutes dance and drink with their clients in a Guatemala City brothel.
KEEP CLICKING TO LEARN MORE ABOUT PROSTITUTES IN GUATEMALA.
1956: Well dressed prostitutes dance and drink with their clients in a Guatemala City brothel.
KEEP CLICKING TO LEARN MORE ABOUT PROSTITUTES IN GUATEMALA.
Photo: Evans, Getty Images
Guatemalan footballer Valeria of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea" (Stars of the Line). Members of the female soccer team is made up of prostitutes. Here they are in 2004.
Guatemalan footballer Valeria of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea" (Stars of the Line). Members of the female soccer team is made up of prostitutes. Here they are in 2004.
Photo: YURI CORTEZ, AFP/Getty Images
A soccer league offers sex workers a chance to do things other than work on the streets.
A soccer league offers sex workers a chance to do things other than work on the streets.
Photo: YURI CORTEZ, AFP/Getty Images
"Estrellas de la Linea" created their own game after denouncing that they had been discriminated by authorities and expelled from the local soccer championship because of their profession.
"Estrellas de la Linea" created their own game after denouncing that they had been discriminated by authorities and expelled from the local soccer championship because of their profession.
Photo: ORLANDO SIERRA, AFP/Getty Images
Salvador's Valeria Portillo (C), captain of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea" which is constituted of prostitutes, cheers with her teammmates, 23 September 2004 in Guatemala City.
Salvador's Valeria Portillo (C), captain of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea" which is constituted of prostitutes, cheers with her teammmates, 23 September 2004 in Guatemala City.
Photo: ORLANDO SIERRA, AFP/Getty Images
Estefani, a sexual worker who is member of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea" goes back to her "laboral activities", 23 September 2004 in Guatemala City.
Estefani, a sexual worker who is member of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea" goes back to her "laboral activities", 23 September 2004 in Guatemala City.
Photo: ORLANDO SIERRA, AFP/Getty Images
Estefani, a sexual worker who is member of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea" goes back to her "laboral activities", 23 September 2004 in Guatemala City.
Estefani, a sexual worker who is member of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea" goes back to her "laboral activities", 23 September 2004 in Guatemala City.
Photo: ORLANDO SIERRA, AFP/Getty Images
Maribel, member of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea", which is constituted of prostitutes, gets ready for a training session in Guatemala City, 29 September 2004.
Maribel, member of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea", which is constituted of prostitutes, gets ready for a training session in Guatemala City, 29 September 2004.
Photo: ORLANDO SIERRA, AFP/Getty Images
Members of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea", which is constituted by prostitutes, pose at an old wagon before a training session in Guatemala City, 29 September 2004.
Members of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea", which is constituted by prostitutes, pose at an old wagon before a training session in Guatemala City, 29 September 2004.
Photo: ORLANDO SIERRA, AFP/Getty Images
Members of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea".
Members of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea".
Photo: ORLANDO SIERRA, AFP/Getty Images
Members of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea", which is constituted by prostitutes, train in Guatemala City, 29 September 2004.
Members of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea", which is constituted by prostitutes, train in Guatemala City, 29 September 2004.
Photo: ORLANDO SIERRA, AFP/Getty Images
Members of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea", which is constituted by prostitutes, train in Guatemala City, 29 September 2004.
Members of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea", which is constituted by prostitutes, train in Guatemala City, 29 September 2004.
Photo: ORLANDO SIERRA, AFP/Getty Images
Andrea, goalkeeper of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea", which is constituted by prostitutes, trains in Guatemala City, 29 September 2004.
Andrea, goalkeeper of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea", which is constituted by prostitutes, trains in Guatemala City, 29 September 2004.
Photo: ORLANDO SIERRA, AFP/Getty Images
Beatriz, members of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea", which is constituted by prostitutes, relaxes after a training session in Guatemala City, 29 September 2004.
Beatriz, members of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea", which is constituted by prostitutes, relaxes after a training session in Guatemala City, 29 September 2004.
Photo: ORLANDO SIERRA, AFP/Getty Images
Guatemalan footballer Kimberley (R), member of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea" (Stars of the Line), constituted by prostitutes, vies for the ball with Salvadorean player Maribel, of Salvadorean female soccer team "Las Chicas Super Poderosas" (Mighty girls) during a friendly match 10 october 2004 at the Katia Miranda Complex stadium in San Salvador, El Salvador.
Guatemalan footballer Kimberley (R), member of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea" (Stars of the Line), constituted by prostitutes, vies for the ball with Salvadorean player Maribel, of Salvadorean
Guatemalan footballer Valeria (R) of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea" (Stars of the Line).
Guatemalan footballer Valeria (R) of the female soccer team "Estrellas de la Linea" (Stars of the Line).
Photo: YURI CORTEZ, AFP/Getty Images
The Guatemalan team, which was expelled from the local championship because of the profession of their players, visited El Salvador as part of a tour that will take them to the tourist villages of Livingston and Peten, in Guatemala, and to El Salvador. "Estrellas de la Linea" won the match by 8-1.
The Guatemalan team, which was expelled from the local championship because of the profession of their players, visited El Salvador as part of a tour that will take them to the tourist villages of Livingston
This weekend, Cards Against Humanity purchased an ad during the Super Bowl, the most-watched American television broadcast of the year, reaching 114.4 million viewers.
Cards Against Humanity is known as an innovator in the games space, and we saw an opportunity to apply our unique brand of “outside the box” thinking to the old-fashioned world of Super Bowl commercials. While we succeeded creatively, the advertisement showed a disappointing return on investment ($0), and we are now going out of business.
In this postmortem, we will examine the thinking behind the ad and the invaluable lessons we learned along the way.
What Went Wrong?
We wasted time with establishment thinking. To begin work on the ad, we hired a full-service integrated advertising agency called “Wieden+Kennedy.” They wasted over six months of our precious time pitching concepts like people laughing while playing the game, and amusing card combinations coming to life on screen. Eventually, we realized that they were burdened by conventional thinking and fired them, but this left us with only 48 hours to complete the ad.
Overconfidence in the model. After firing the agency, we conducted extensive market research which demonstrated that the American consumer loves potatoes.
The problem we failed to anticipate was that sports fans ultimately had trouble making the leap from “Super Bowl” to “potato” to “Cards Against Humanity.” This was a real lesson in humility. In hindsight, our model lacked “external validity.” Instead of asking one person if the ad was effective 70 times, we should have asked 70 people one time. This left us susceptible to what statisticians call “correlated errors.”
Bad luck. There are just some things you can’t control. We assumed that potatoes would feature more prominently in this year’s Super Bowl. However, no players were shown eating a potato, and potatoes were not mentioned at all during the game. We gambled big and lost.
Failure to trust our customers. We were worried that consumers would confuse the ad for part of the Super Bowl. This led us to make a fear-based decision to write the word “ADVERTISEMENT” on the potato.
We were asking the wrong questions. This is a classic trap. We spent so much time selecting the right potato for the ad that we never stopped to question whether a potato would convey the essential brand experience of Cards Against Humanity.
Some potato options that we purchased but ultimately discarded
Our ad failed to connect with young people. The potato is a beloved American vegetable with a rich history that is simultaneously hip and timeless. But in today’s modern society, the so-called “rules” of marketing no longer apply. Teens can go anywhere for entertainment, from their portable Nintendo devices to out-of-control blowjob parties. The humble potato just can’t compete.
We were too early. Going into this project, our research showed that most Super Bowl commercials are very exciting to watch. They feature lots of quick camera cuts and cool celebrity spokespeople like Jessica Simpson. Our strategy was to zig where everyone else zagged. We stand by this direction, but the market wasn’t ready for an ad with the courage to stand still in a world that moves.
We didn’t add music. In our concepts for the ad, we imagined cool music playing, like The Rolling Stones. Unfortunately, we spent all of the company’s money buying a Super Bowl ad spot and became fiscally insolvent. This forced us to cut our $1.5 million license for “Sympathy for the Devil.” Looking back, the effectiveness of this concept was 99% based on the audience hearing The Rolling Stones’ “Sympathy for the Devil.”
We forgot to mention our product. There’s no getting around it. We should have included Cards Against Humanity’s name or logo in the ad. Was this our fault? Absolutely. Do we have regrets? Of course. If we could do it all over again, mentioning the name of our product would probably be our first change. Hindsight is 20/20.
Lessons Learned
Most startups fail for one of two reasons: they run out of money, or they fail to reach an audience. We spent all of our money while simultaneously failing to reach an audience. This is a classic blunder.
At Cards Against Humanity, we believe that you can only become a master by trying and failing. In this way, failure is life’s greatest teacher; failure is actually success. At Cards Against Humanity, we fail all the time. We are veterans of failure. And constant failure, plus unlimited capital, is what led us to greatness.
Will we do another ad next year? Yes. If we successfully emerge from Chapter 11, we will be seeking investors to bankroll an ad concept involving popular cereal grain “wheat.”
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