Zelda: Breath of the Wild tips: How to kill Guardians, Korok Seeds, weapon durability, and more

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Let's get serious.


The new Zelda game is incredible, and it is also complicated. Breath of the Wild has interlocking systems that enable you to do some incredible things, but you may find yourself overwhelmed when you start. And I’m here to help.

Before we get into it, a piece of advice: Don’t sell the loot you collect unless you’re sure you don’t need it. You can sell the items you craft, like food or elixirs, but you will have a use for just about anything in your inventory. And you don’t want to sell all your Ancient Shafts only to find out you need them an hour later.

OK, now let’s get on to the tips.

Understanding weapon durability

Your weapons are going to break. Get used to it.

Early on, the weapons you find and take from other creatures seem like they are made from balsa wood and built by a blacksmith who hates their job. It’s common for a new spear or sword to crumble after just three fights.

You can get frustrated with this, or you can accept it. The tip here is that you should use this as an opportunity to experiment with different kinds of weapons. And you should also try to hang on to at least one strong weapon in case you come across a more powerful enemy. The strength of the weapon is the number in the box on the inventory screen, and you can tell if a weapon is more or less durable than normal by reading the flavor text on the inventory screen.

Beyond that, just know that you’ll start regularly getting awesome weapons later on.

How to get more stamina and more heart containers

PRAY TO ME!

Above: PRAY TO ME!

Breath of the Wild doesn’t have pieces of heart containers hidden around the world, and you won’t get a full container often, either. Instead, you’ll expand your life meter and stamina bar by completing the more than 100 challenge dungeons. Spirits Orbs are standard reward for solving one of the smaller puzzle dungeons, and you can go pray to a goddess statue and select either an extra heart or more stamina after collecting four of them.

You can find goddess statues in most villages, but you can always find one at the Temple of Time or in the center of Kakariko Village.

What to do with Korok seeds?

Soon after you start, you’ll begin finding little forest spirits called Koroks. They’ll reward you with seeds for uncovering them. You should take those seeds to the river north of the Dueling Peaks Stable. Don’t cross the bridge; instead, walk around the river until you find a giant Korok who is sad about his lost maracas. Follow his quest to get his maracas, and then he will accept your seeds in exchange or expanding your inventory slots.

Cooking 101

I don’t think you’ll need to download a list of recipes for Breath of the Wild. You could, but I think that’s a waste of time. Instead, you should learn the basic rules of how this system works.

Here’s what you should know:

  • You can cook in any frying pan. If it’s not already over a fire, you’ll have to start one. You can light the fire under a pan using a nearby fire and a torch, flame arrows, or a flaming weapon. But it’s most efficient to place a flint stone (found in ore deposits) next to the wood and striking it with a metal weapon.
  • Cooking meat, fruit, veggies, and other substantial foods will make them slightly more effective.
  • Mixing ingredients together in the pan is the key to making complex meals that will provide you a lot of health, extended status effects, and more.
  • But don’t mix items at random — try to pair meat together with salt to make salt-grilled meat that can replace a lot of hearts.
  • For status effects, pay attention to the name of the ingredients. The Staminoka Fish and the Stamella Shroom can both replenish your stamina, cooking them together can have a compounding effect that increases the effectiveness of the meal.
  • Don’t mix together two different kinds of effects, as they’ll cancel each other out.
  • Don’t throw in a bunch of ingredients for the hell of it. If you mix together a multiple mushrooms and one piece of meat, the result may cancel out the meat to give you a mushroom skewer that you could’ve made without wasting the meat.
  • Early during your adventure, mixing two or three ingredients is better than three or four because you probably don’t need a meal that replenishes 11 hearts. You’d be better off with four meals that recover 3 hearts each.

But really, you should experiment. Cooking is something you can learn in this game, and I think it’s really best if you go for it.

Elixirs 101

Making elixirs is similar to cooking, but it’s maybe a bit easier.

Here’s what you should know:

  • For most elixirs, you can mix a status-affected bug or reptile with monster parts to get what you want.
  • The flavor text will tell you what something like the Sunset Firefly does (it improves your stealth rating), and you can pop it into the pan with four bokoblin horns to get a long-lasting elixir.
  • If you want a more powerful elixir, you can try using some of the more rare monster parts.
  • Be careful: Read the text for the monster parts. If it says something like, “it may have a use,” don’t mix it for an elixir. Save it because you’ll need it for other kinds of upgrades.

Upgrading your clothing with monster parts and chu jelly

Speaking of Kakariko Village, just to its north, you’ll find the Ta’loh Naeg Shrine. Walk past that into the forest and you’ll quickly discover a Great Fairy Fountain. This fairy will improve your clothing if you give her certain monster parts. All of the monster parts that she accepts will say something such as “it may have other uses” in the flavor text.

Give me your clothes!

Above: Give me your clothes!

Image Credit: Jeff Grubb/GamesBeat

How to easily catch bugs and fish

Are you finding that bugs and fish always scamper away from you before you can grab ’em? Then you should get the stealth Shieka armor from the armor shop in Kakariko Village. It’s expensive (try cooking some meals and selling them if you need the cash immediately, and be sure to sell your precious stones). If you buy the whole set, you can easily sneak up on bugs and fish even without going into the stealth stance. It makes catching those critters much easier.

What to do with Luminous Stones

There’s a Zora near the front of the Zora domain that shows up after you finish the temple in that area. He wants 10 Luminous Stones, so try to save them until you meet him

How to use the camera to find certain items

One of the most important items in Breath of the Wild is the camera. You’ll get it from the Hateno Ancient Tech Lab on the outskirts of Hateno Village. You can use it to scan everything in the world to add it to your Hyrule Compendium. Once it’s in your compendium, you can set your Sheikah Sensor to help you track down that item. You’ll need this if you’re trying to quickly complete certain side-quests.

How to spot active Guardians and then kill them

The camera also has another use. You can point it at the dilapidated Guardians, and the camera will tell you if it’s going to suddenly come to life and attack you.

Come at me!

Above: Come at me!

Image Credit: GamesBeat

When you do get into combat with a Guardian, you’ll likely have a tough time beating them. Here’s a couple of tricks:

  • Find a Guardian shield and only use it to fight Guardians. If you hit the A button while holding the lock-on targeting button right after the Guardian fires its blue-colored blast at you (and I mean right after you see that blue coloring), you’ll deflect the attack right back at the ancient machine. If you time it right, this will also not do any damage to your shield.
  • If you are struggling with the shield, you’ll need Ancient weapons. You can get these by traveling to the Northeast to the Akkala Ancient Tech Lab. There, you can trade in more ancient parts (which you pick up from broken or defeated Guardians) and rupees to buy items like swords, arrow, bows, and more that are designed to kill Guardians.
  • But you should probably get good with the shield trick.

Are you wondering how to do something and don’t see it here?

Hey, email me if you have an unanswered question about Breath of the Wild. Let’s figure this out together, so we can expand this guide for everybody!



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Blockchain Venture Capital Expert Joins Ciphrex

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PRESS RELEASE:

SAN DIEGO–(BUSINESS WIRE)–March 2, 2017–

Ciphrex Corp., a leading software company in the emerging field of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, announced that Alyse Killeen, an experienced venture capitalist and one of the earliest investors in the bitcoin ecosystem, has joined its Board of Advisors.

This Smart News Release features multimedia. View the full release here: http://ift.tt/2lhhyeB

Ciphrex's Venture Capital Advisor Alyse Killeen (Photo: Business Wire)

Ciphrex’s Venture Capital Advisor Alyse Killeen (Photo: Business Wire)

Killeen, now Managing Partner at StillMark Co., an investment advisory and venture investment group, is an enthusiastic advocate of decentralized consensus network technologies that enable transactions in digital assets. She is a recognized and sought-after advisor to startups in the cryptotech space, including Netki and Factom. She is a board director of BitGive – the first Bitcoin non-profit – and her prominence in blockchain-related venture funding was featured in a recent Forbes magazine article.

“I am extremely pleased to welcome Alyse Killeen as a member of our team,” said Eric Lombrozo, Co-CEO of Ciphrex. “She brings unique insights and a strategic vision that is scarce in this space, she is a delight to work with, and I look forward to her participation and contributions to Ciphrex’s success.”

In describing her decision to join the Ciphrex team, Killeen stated, “Eric Lombrozo is a world class leader in the field of decentralized consensus technology. He has an exceptional clarity and depth of knowledge of the bitcoin blockchain and the unique opportunities to create value upon that infrastructure. He has built at Ciphrex one of the most competent and qualified teams in the industry.”

Killeen is also a Mentor at Plug and Play Center – Silicon Valley’s premier technology startup accelerator. And, in addition to her involvement in enterprise and infrastructure technology ventures, she is the Lead VC-in-Residence at XRC Labs at the Parsons School of Design in New York – a technology accelerator for the next generation of innovation in the retail and consumer goods sectors.

About Ciphrex

Ciphrex creates technologies to build the peer-to-peer payment network infrastructure required to securely store and transact digital assets. The company’s enterprise grade software is based on public-key cryptography and blockchain technology focusing on security and scalability. Contact us at info@ciphrex.com.

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Ciphrex
Enrique Lombrozo, 858-456-4656
enrique@ciphrex.com



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A Giant Neuron Has Been Found Wrapped Around the Brain

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For the first time, scientists have detected a giant neuron wrapped around the entire circumference of a mouse's brain, and it's so densely connected across both hemispheres, it could finally explain the origins of consciousness. 

Using a new imaging technique, the team detected the giant neuron emanating from one of the best-connected regions in the brain, and say it could be coordinating signals from different areas to create conscious thought.

 

This recently discovered neuron is one of three that have been detected for the first time in a mammal's brain, and the new imaging technique could help us figure out if similar structures have gone undetected in our own brains for centuries.

At a recent meeting of the Brain Research through Advancing Innovative Neurotechnologies initiative in Maryland, a team from the Allen Institute for Brain Science described how all three neurons stretch across both hemispheres of the brain, but the largest one wraps around the organ's circumference like a "crown of thorns". 

You can see them highlighted in the image at the top of the page.

Lead researcher Christof Koch told Sara Reardon at Nature that they've never seen neurons extend so far across both regions of the brain before.

Oddly enough, all three giant neurons happen to emanate from a part of the brain that's shown intriguing connections to human consciousness in the past - the claustrum, a thin sheet of grey matter that could be the most connected structure in the entire brain, based on volume.

This relatively small region is hidden between the inner surface of the neocortex in the centre of the brain, and communicates with almost all regions of cortex to achieve many higher cognitive functions such as language, long-term planning, and advanced sensory tasks such as seeing and hearing.

 

"Advanced brain-imaging techniques that look at the white matter fibres coursing to and from the claustrum reveal that it is a neural Grand Central Station," Koch wrote for Scientific American back in 2014. "Almost every region of the cortex sends fibres to the claustrum."

The claustrum is so densely connected to several crucial areas in the brain that Francis Crick of DNA double helix fame referred to it a "conductor of consciousness" in a 2005 paper co-written with Koch.

They suggested that it connects all of our external and internal perceptions together into a single unifying experience, like a conductor synchronises an orchestra, and strange medical cases in the past few years have only made their case stronger.

Back in 2014, a 54-year-old woman checked into the George Washington University Medical Faculty Associates in Washington, DC, for epilepsy treatment. 

This involved gently probing various regions of her brain with electrodes to narrow down the potential source of her epileptic seizures, but when the team started stimulating the woman's claustrum, they found they could effectively 'switch' her consciousness off and on again.

Helen Thomson reported for New Scientist at the time:

"When the team zapped the area with high frequency electrical impulses, the woman lost consciousness. She stopped reading and stared blankly into space, she didn't respond to auditory or visual commands and her breathing slowed. 

As soon as the stimulation stopped, she immediately regained consciousness with no memory of the event. The same thing happened every time the area was stimulated during two days of experiments."

According to Koch, who was not involved in the study, this kind of abrupt and specific 'stopping and starting' of consciousness had never been seen before.

Another experiment in 2015 examined the effects of claustrum lesions on the consciousness of 171 combat veterans with traumatic brain injuries.

They found that claustrum damage was associated with the duration, but not frequency, of loss of consciousness, suggesting that it could play an important role in the switching on and off of conscious thought, but another region could be involved in maintaining it.

And now Koch and his team have discovered extensive neurons in mouse brains emanating from this mysterious region.

In order to map neurons, researchers usually have to inject individual nerve cells with a dye, cut the brain into thin sections, and then trace the neuron's path by hand.

It's a surprisingly rudimentary technique for a neuroscientist to have to perform, and given that they have to destroy the brain in the process, it's not one that can be done regularly on human organs.

Koch and his team wanted to come up with a technique that was less invasive, and engineered mice that could have specific genes in their claustrum neurons activated by a specific drug.

"When the researchers fed the mice a small amount of the drug, only a handful of neurons received enough of it to switch on these genes," Reardon reports for Nature.

"That resulted in production of a green fluorescent protein that spread throughout the entire neuron. The team then took 10,000 cross-sectional images of the mouse brain, and used a computer program to create a 3D reconstruction of just three glowing cells."

We should keep in mind that just because these new giant neurons are connected to the claustrum doesn't mean that Koch's hypothesis about consciousness is correct - we're a long way from proving that yet.

It's also important to note that these neurons have only been detected in mice so far, and the research has yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal, so we need to wait for further confirmation before we can really delve into what this discovery could mean for humans.

But the discovery is an intriguing piece of the puzzle that could help up make sense of this crucial, but enigmatic region of the brain, and how it could relate to the human experience of conscious thought.

The research was presented at the 15 February meeting of the Brain Research through Advancing Innovative Neurotechnologies initiative in Bethesda, Maryland.



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The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Review

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The moment I realized The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild might actually be my favorite Zelda adventure ever struck me like lightning — literally.

While running through the picturesque green fields of Hyrule, a massive storm unexpectedly rolled in. As heavy rain began to pour, a strong wind rustled the tall grass, and in the distance I could hear the crack of lightning. The sharp sound rapidly came closer and closer until “zap!” I was electrocuted to death by a bolt. Every time I restarted, the same thing would happen. I couldn’t understand why the lightning was targeting me, the helpless hero, until I realized that both the spear and shield on my back were made of metal. With the steel unequipped, I was able to safely make my through the storm.

Breath of the Wild has something that’s been missing from the series for years: surprise. Most recent Zelda adventures have become formulaic, abiding by a rigid and proven structure that offers nostalgia and familiarity, but little room for revelations, either big or small. Breath of the Wild is more open and natural than its predecessors, letting you discover things — like how lightning works — through experimentation. It isn’t always as curated and cinematic as other Zelda games, but the unpredictability makes it feel like a true adventure, where you’re uncovering your own path, instead of hitting your marks and following the script.

Zelda games have always been large, but Breath of the Wild feels uniquely grand, a massive open world filled with so much to do that I suspect most players — even those who complete the main story — will miss large swaths of the map. The scale could have been daunting, but the joy of discovery and the satisfaction that comes from finding your own way make it inviting instead. I want to go the places I’ve yet to discover. I want to uncover new secrets and abilities. I want more.

At 50 hours into the game, I still haven’t reached the end of Breath of the Wild. In some ways it feels like I’ve only scratched the surface. But even still, these bold changes have profoundly altered my expectations of what a Zelda adventure can be. And I’m entirely convinced that this is the best Zelda game I’ve ever played.

This review contains light spoilers for the early hours of Breath of the Wild.

Breath of the Wild opens with series hero Link awakening in a dark cavern. A mysterious disembodied voice guides him to a tablet that has a passing resemblance to both the Switch and Nintendo's maligned Wii U controller. The tablet helps to navigate this version of Hyrule — the fantasy realm that has long been the heart of Zelda adventures. As you learn in the very early parts of the game, a century ago, powerful evil destroyed much of the world, allowing nature to reclaim castles, and littering the land with abandoned machines of war. People still exist, in small towns and stables, but much of Hyrule is beset by hordes of monsters who have bivouacked into the hills. This is a dangerous place. Naturally, your job is to set things right.

The lack of direction can be disorienting at first

One of the game’s greatest strengths is how it goes about explaining how you will do that — or just as often, not explaining it. Breath of the Wild rarely gives you explicit directions as to what to do. Instead, it tells (or shows) you what needs to happen, and lets you fill in the rest. One line of quests tasks you with uncovering shrines (more on those later) using only lines from a poem or a riddle as guidance. Another presents a series of images of scenic Hyrule locations from before the calamity, and asks you to find them as they are now. In order to defeat Ganon you’ll need to first uncover four “divine beasts” scattered throughout the world. Of course, the game doesn’t even tell you what a divine beast is.

This lack of direction can be disorienting at first. I played Breath of the Wild immediately after finishing another huge role playing game, Horizon Zero Dawn, and it was a jarring transition. After spending 40 hours playing a game that literally pointed me in the right direction at all times, now I was forced to fend for myself. But it very quickly turned into a liberating sensation. Instead of worrying if I was following the correct path, for the first dozen hours or so, I largely ignored the story altogether. Instead, I trekked across Hyrule activating the specific towers found in each region, which not only help fill in the details of the map but also provide crucial fast-travel points.

Even the act of filling out Breath of the Wild’s map instils a deep sense of adventure. In most open-world games, particularly Ubisoft titles like Far Cry or Assassin’s Creed, your map is overburdened with icons from the very beginning. You can spot where everything from a city to a treasure chest is located before you even start exploring. It can feel overwhelming. Breath of the Wild, meanwhile, does the opposite. When you first start out the map is almost completely empty. You can see the dividing lines between the various regions that make up Hyrule, but none of their details. It’s only once you start exploring that it fills out. A town won’t appear on your map until you actually go there, which you can only do by finding it on your own. Discovering a new place or thing truly feels like an act of discovery.

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the WildThe Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

Breath of the Wild features two significant additions that completely changed how I viewed the world around me. In addition to the usual methods of traversal — foot, horse, and fast travel — Link now also has the ability to climb nearly every surface you come across. If you spot a mountain, a castle, or virtually anything else, you can climb it. The only restriction is Link’s stamina — which expands over time and can be augmented with things like potions — but even then there are ways around it if you’re clever. This marks a fundamental shift for the series. Instead of an impediment, walls and mountains are now just another potential pathway. Often I would bypass monster-plagued roads altogether and simply climb the comparatively safe mountain instead.

Link’s climbing ability is made all the more useful and important by a seemingly innocuous paraglider, which lets Link temporarily soar through the air. In short order, it became a pivotal part of the game, and my main method of transportation. Instead of walking or riding to a new location, I would climb the nearest high point — a mountain, or maybe a tower — and then glide in the direction of where I wished to be. The act of getting somewhere became exciting in and of itself. There’s a certain pleasure that comes from just having enough energy to reach the top of a tower before losing your grip, or sailing peacefully above enemy camps as the monsters sleep below, unaware.

I was constantly discovering new places and puzzles, both elaborate and diminutive

Not only is Breath of the Wild’s map large; it’s also dense. I was constantly discovering new places and puzzles, both elaborate and diminutive. One of my favorite additions to the game is the shrines — glowing caverns scattered liberally across the map. Each one is like a miniature, self-contained Zelda dungeon. Early on these shrines serve as tutorials, showing necessary details about Link’s powers — like his ability to temporarily halt time or use bombs — but later they essentially become puzzle boxes, which approach Portal-levels of cleverness. The shrines also simplify the Zelda dungeon formula in an almost mobile game-like manner, resulting in satisfyingly quick puzzles that can usually be completed in less than 15 minutes or so. Even better, unlike typical Zelda puzzles, those in Breath of the Wild’s shrines often have multiple solutions.

Many other additions help bring Breath of the Wild in line with contemporary open-world games like The Witcher or Skyrim, while also contributing to its overwhelming focus on adventure and discovery. Link can now cook, for instance, gathering ingredients in the wild, using them to make food that replenishes health or buffs abilities. I found myself especially taken with this feature, scouring the world for new vegetables and meats, and seeing what I could make of them. Again, cooking isn’t really explained, making it all the more compelling. Whipping up a tasty mushroom rice ball or meat-stuffed pumpkin using guesswork instead of a recipe is satisfying. I especially love the way ingredients dance and jump in the pot as you prepare a meal.

There are also survival elements, forcing you to protect Link from extreme heat and cold. You’ll often find him shivering or sweating because of the weather, his health depleting. Weapons, too, give way. For the first time in a Zelda game your swords and shields degrade as you use them. But weapons are everywhere. You can even pick up a downed skeleton’s arm to bludgeon beasts, its fingers still twitching as you swing it about. Using your best equipment becomes a risky choice, not an assumption.

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the WildThe Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

Even though Breath of the Wild introduces RPG-like elements such as crafting and a greater focus on gear, it’s missing a very distinct kernel of the genre: experience. In most RPGs, numbers determine almost everything you can do. If you’re a level 5 character in a typical RPG, you definitely don’t want to head into a dungeon filled with level 10 enemies, and there’s a whole range of items and abilities you can’t use until you grind long enough to meet the appropriate level. This effectively walls off large portions of the world until you’ve achieved a numerical level of success.

Breath of the Wild scraps this logic. Link gets more health and stamina as you progress, and you can acquire stronger weapons and armor, but he never gets stronger himself. He doesn’t learn to swing a sword or shoot a bow any better. But you do. Breath of the Wild offers a more open and expansive world to explore, but it also demands more of its players than other Zeldas, forcing you to get better and smarter to survive. It’s the most challenging Zelda I’ve played in many years, but also the most satisfying. (Though it never approaches the daunting difficulty of games like Bloodborne or Dark Souls.)

Despite the changes, it still feels like a Zelda adventure

All of these many changes fundamentally alter the Zelda formula. But what’s perhaps most remarkable about Breath of the Wild is that it still feels like a Zelda adventure — and it’s more than just the familiar setting and characters, or the stirring rendition of the Zelda theme that plays in the background. Breath of the Wild may be the biggest Zelda game to date, but it’s also an experience that distills the essence of the series into something more pure. More recent Zelda games have become bogged down with needless hand holding, an overabundance of tutorials, and overly-complicated narratives. Breath of the Wild gets away from that. It changes the Zelda formula in dramatic ways, yet paradoxically it feels more Zelda than almost any game in the series before. By going big and open, Breath of the Wild gets at the heart at what a Zelda game should be.

This new direction, and shaking up of the age-old formula that has come to define the series, helps Breath of the Wild return to what made Zelda so beloved in the first place. More so than just about any game series, Zelda’s heart lies in exploration, that moment of seeing a towering mountain in the distance and realizing that eventually you’ll be able to reach the top. Breath of the Wild takes this idea, cuts out the fluff, and expands upon it. It pulls ideas from other games, like crafting or survival, yet makes them feel perfectly at home in its beloved universe. It’s exactly the Zelda game I’ve been waiting for.

Just watch out for lightning.

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild launches March 3rd on Nintendo Switch and Wii U.



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Ed Thorp’s Advice on How to Live a Good Life

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Ed Thorp’s Advice on How to Live a Good Life

I’ve done a lot of reading and studying about quantitative investment strategies and investors over the years and one of the running themes I’ve found in the various books and articles I’ve read over time is the name Ed Thorp. Thorp is a pioneer in the quantitative investment world who was so far ahead of his time that he was developing strategies, pricing relationships and market theories that would later turn into Nobel Prize-winning ideas and billion dollar hedge fund strategies.

I first came across Thorp through his old book, Beat the Dealerwhen I became interested in Blackjack at a young age (it helped me marginally at the casinos). His blackjack system was so successful that the casinos had to change their rules in the 1960s to make it harder for him to beat them.

So I was excited to read Thorp’s new book, A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street, How I Beat the Dealer and the Marketsabout his life, gambling stories, and investment ideas.

One of the more interesting aspects of Thorp’s story was when he shut down his ultra-successful hedge fund, Princeton Newport Partners, in the late-1980s. He likely left billions of dollars on the table considering how much money hedge fund managers make these days but he had a really great perspective on the whole thing:

As Princeton Newport Partners closed I reflected on the proposition that what matters in life is how you spend your time.

Though the ending of PNP was traumatic for us all, and the future wealth destroyed was in the billions, it freed us to do more of what we enjoyed most: spend time with each other and the family and friends we loved, travel, and pursue our interests.

Success on Wall Street was getting the most money. Success for us was having the best life.

He also shared the story of a couple billionaires to illustrate his point:

When J. Paul Getty was the richest man in the world and manifestly not fulfilled, he said the happiest time of his life was when he was sixteen, riding waves off the beach in Malibu, California. In 2000, Los Angeles Times Magazine, speaking of new multibillionaire Henry T. Nicholas III of Broadcom Corporation, said, “It’s 1:30 a.m. He’s just turned 40—at his desk, in a dimly lit office. He hasn’t seen his wife and children, ‘my reason for living,’ for several days. ‘The last time we talked, [Stacey] told me she missed the old days, when I was at TRW and we lived in a condo. She told me she wants to go back to that life.’ But they can’t go back because he can’t let up.” (They later divorced.)

There are a couple ideas that came to mind when I read this passage. One is that there’s a huge difference between contentment and happiness. And two is that there’s something to be said for figuring out what enough means to you personally.

People often say that their ultimate goal is to achieve happiness. I think this is an incomplete way to view the world because there are many things you can do that can make you happy, but few people are ever able to be content once they find that elusive happiness. Billionaire J. Paul Getty saying he was happiest at age 16 riding waves off the beach in Malibu is pretty telling. He had all the money he would ever need but he was more fulfilled as a teenager on the beach.

I remember listening to Jerry Seinfeld talk with Howard Stern a few years ago and Stern asked him why he decided to end the show Seinfeld after 9 seasons (even though he was reportedly being offered $5 million an episode to come back). Seinfeld said it was more of a quality of life decision for him than anything. He wanted to go out on top and knew he didn’t really need any more money. He was content going out on his own terms.

Obviously, all of these stories entail people with more money than they could ever spend in a lifetime. But this idea still applies for those of us who don’t have hundreds of millions of dollars. I don’t know how many times over the years I’ve thought to myself, “If I can just make $xx/year, I’ll be set.” This works until you reach that level and realize there’s always another level you’ll be searching for and ‘enough’ becomes a moving target. It becomes an endless game where all of your effort that goes into doing what you think will make you happy actually leaves you miserable.

I loved Thorp’s ideas that time is all that matters in life and having the best life is more important than having the most money. The first step might be to understand the difference between the pursuit of happiness and the figuring out how to be content with what you have.

Source:
A Man for All Markets

Further Reading:
The Personal Success Equation

*******



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The Dow Streak May Be Finally Over, But In February Everything Was Up

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Just because...

 

The Record Winning Streak Is Over...

 

They desperately tried to ramp it but failed

NOTE: Today was the worst day for Small Caps since October

*  *  *

Banks, Bonds, Bullion, and Broad equity indices were all up in February...

 

So was VIX...a massive divergence for a month

 

Dow led the way this month with a 4th monthly gain in a row for stocks

 

Bonds were bid for the month with 2Y underperforming...

 

The USD Index closed the month lower...(Loonie weakest among the majors)

 

March rate-hike-odds have soared in the last few days from 37% to 54%...

 

But the Dollar isn't buying it at all (and nor are bonds)... So WTF is going on in Fed Funds Futures?

ForexLive has some ideas...

There hasn't been much in the way of economic news in the past few days. Durable goods orders and GDP were weak; consumer confidence was strong. Fed speak was repetitious. But Fed funds futures hike probabilities have shot to 54% from 37% since Thursday.

 

Why?

 

One idea is pure manipulation. A bank that wants to see a hike might be buying Fed funds futures to try and somehow manipulate the Fed's thinking.

 

Or it could be some other kind of leak from the Fed?

 

Or maybe someone is just making a big bet it's going to happen as they take a closer look at the data.

 

What's curious is that the US dollar hasn't gone along for the ride. That suggests it's not fundamental.

While on the topic we note that 1 Year OIS topped 1.00% for the first time since Nov 2008...

*  *  *

Mixed picture for today in bond-land with the long-end rallying and short-end dragged by the shift in FF futures... (Note the major flattening of the curve)

 

The US Treasury Curve has collapsed to its flattest since the election... but banks don't care...

 

But stocks dropped and erased yesterday's gains (before a desperate ramp into the close again)

 

Orrin Hatch comments at around 12ET that it's "very difficult to change the current tax system because the Democrats are very uncooperative" seemed to spark the selling (and VIX buying). Of course that was ramped back above 20,800. Then again we saw selling pressure in the last 30 mins but once The Dow breached 20,800, a sudden buying panic resurfaced...

 

Target was monkeyhammered...but most retailers had an ugly day (SIG on sexual harrassment suits)

 

For the second day in a row, the dollar index rallied during the US day session after overnight weakness (and the Loonie was smashed lower)

 

WTI and RBOB ended the day lower but bounced back notably on OPEC cut compliance and White House ethanol mandate denials...

 

Gold topped $1250 and Silver topped $18 on the month...



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Linamar: Runaway Powertrain Priced At Recession Levels

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I. Introduction

Linamar (OTCPK:LIMAF) is a Canada based auto parts supplier (trading as LNR on the TSX) that operates primarily in the Powertrain/Driveline segment. It's the second largest automotive supplier in Canada after Magna International (NYSE:MGA) and competes with OEM suppliers around the world. Linmar derives 60% of its automotive revenues from North America, 30% from Europe, and 10% from Asia (mainly China and India).

In addition to its Powertrain/Driveline business (85% of revenues), the company manufactures industrial work platforms under the Skyjack brand, a niche market that Linamar dominates with a >40% market share. Barriers to entry are high as the top three manufacturers account for 98.9% of the market. Linamar estimates that the global market for Skyjack products will be worth $8B by 2020. The company hopes to eventually capture a 15% share (or $1.2B in revenues). Given the competitive dynamics within this space, its estimate seems conservative.

The story of Linamar's origins makes it almost impossible to root against the company. Founded out of the basement of Frank Hasenfratz, an Hungarian immigrant who escaped Soviet occupation in the 1960s, it has since grown into a multibillion dollar company that's still being run like a family business. Frank's daughter Linda Hasenfratz is currently CEO with a senior management team that's been with the company since the early 90s.

II. Financials

  • Price: $59.75
  • Shares outstanding: 65.2M
  • Market Cap: $3.75B
  • Revenues (TTM): $5.87B
  • Gross Margin: ~16%
  • Operating Margin: ~11%
  • Debt to EBITDA: 1.2
  • EBIT/Interest Coverage: 20x

Note: all dollar figures are in CAD

For starters, Linamar has an exceptionally strong balance sheet. The majority of its debt was only recently issued to fund its acquisition of Montupet, a French aluminum castings company, which was completed back in Q4 2015.

Over the past five years, Linamar has been on a growth tear, with 13% annual revenue growth, 34% earnings growth, and >20% return on equity. This performance is reflected in its stock chart:

The company is targeting $10B in revenues by 2020, an achievable figure considering it already has $7.7B of annual sales lined up in booked business. This also assumes an extremely conservative scenario of flat automotive growth over the next four years (source: Linamar 2015 annual report).

III. Mispriced Opportunity

Despite consistent double-digit top and bottom line growth, Linamar's stock price has been volatile of late and is now trading at a 30% discount from its highs in mid-2015. After the Trump victory, it traded below $48, before rebounding to $58 per share.

Any way you look at it, the stock is trading at depressed valuations: 7x forward earnings, 4.8x EBITDA and 0.7x sales.

There are several reasons for this but the top three in ascending order in magnitude are as follow:

  • Peak auto fears
  • Turmoil in European markets (e.g. Brexit, French elections)
  • Thematic risks in Trump policies (e.g. border tax, regulatory uncertainty)

There are many reasons why these fears are misplaced. To address each point:

1. Peak Auto: Linamar's growth is largely driven by market share expansion rather than auto sector growth

There's been a prevailing misconception that Linamar is subject to the same peak auto risks as its large competitor Magna International. In reality, the company is agnostic to all but the worst case scenario for the auto sector (i.e. a recession driven decline).

For example, in FY15, Linamar's revenue grew by 24% year over year vs. auto sector growth of 2%. Even when you exclude the impact of acquisitions, Linamar's organic growth rate is still around 12-14%, or seven times the industry average.

2. Turmoil in Europe is overblown

According to its Q3 2016 filings (post Brexit), content per vehicle (CPV) continues to grow by double digits irrespective of geography. In fact, Europe was a positive outlier, up 54% quarter over quarter.

3. Trump Risk: In the worst case scenario, U.S. consumers and large competitors (including U.S. Big Auto) would be hurt a lot more

Linamar's strong relative operating margins (11% vs Magna's 8%), the nature of its product line (powertrains are the most complex and costly systems to insource) and its cost leadership position enables it to adopt a nimbler response to policy changes. Given that an auto part moves across borders at least six to seven times before it's installed in a vehicle, a border tax would in reality be a tax on the U.S. consumer, whose displeasure would surely be heard by the Trump administration.

IV. Other Catalysts

In addition to continued market share expansion, Linamar's stock could potentially outperform its peer group due to the imminent availability of free cash flow to fund dividend and share repurchases.

A conservative 10% operating earnings growth yields $1B in operating cash flow for FY17. Subtract $400M in CapEx (vs. $376M TTM), and another $300-400M to reduce debt-to-EBITDA under 1, this leaves $200M-300M for dividends and share repurchases. In the most recent Q3 2016 call, Linamar CEO provided the following guidance:

Linda Hasenfratz

Yes. Of course, we do consider our share repurchase or dividend of other ways that we can try to return money to shareholders. Our primary priority right now is debt reduction I mean we've increased the debt quite a bit with the acquisition of Montupet at the beginning of the year and we've been saying along that our number one role is to get our leverage down under one, we're sitting at 1.16 now. So, we're not far from that goal. Once we reached that goal then we can assess other uses of capital including share buyback or dividends.

V. Management

It's hard not to look at Linamar's management through rose colored lenses. Here's this gem from Linamar's 2015 Annual Report on management's strategic principles (highlights are mine):

Strategy

The overarching principle in strategy development at Linamar is to develop a strategy that will drive success in a variety of outcomes; a strategy based on optionality. That means identifying long term markets of opportunity, reviewing technology challenges and opportunities in each and assessing the likelihood of a variety of scenarios. We then endeavour to develop a strategy that is not betting on success in a particular market, technology or outcome but can in fact have great success regardless of outcomes.

In addition, management has a long track record of acting as owner/operators with a 100-year vision for the company (with specific milestones to be reached).

One way I assess management quality is to examine their operating decisions during a crisis. 2009 provides the perfect case study: the automotive industry was in shambles as both General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Chrysler filed for bankruptcy, and Linamar's stock plummeted 90% to under $4 a share. Management's actions during this period speak to their long-term orientation and growth mentality:

  • Cut its workforce in half
  • Prepaid their long-term debt
  • Repurchased $67M worth of its own shares
  • Made $130M in purchases for manufacturing facilities abroad
  • Maintained $100M in cash reserves

VI. Valuation

Barring a major catastrophe within the industry and using a conservative 5-7% earnings growth rate over the next four years, I can't see how Linamar fails to achieve at least $9 EPS by 2020. This implies a minimum upside of 30% (or around $78-80 per share), although I think the base case favors continued market share expansion with a $90 price target within a 2-3 year time frame.

VII. Recommendation & Trading Strategy

While I consider myself a long-term value investor, I don't rely completely upon bottom-up analysis when making investment decisions. The contrarian in me incorporates macro considerations. I've built a starter position in Linamar and will be adding if/when volatility returns to the global markets.

This article is part of Seeking Alpha PRO. PRO members receive exclusive access to Seeking Alpha's best ideas and professional tools to fully leverage the platform.

Disclosure: I am/we are long LIMAF.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.



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Sam Harris and Richard Dawkins Condemned Because Alt-Right Likes Them

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Gustav Klimt - Beech Grove I - Google Art ProjectIn the "great rift" that has divided many atheists over the years, guilt by association generally referred to negatively evaluating someone on the basis of who they associate with and/or promote. For example, a blogger who promoted the work of Sam Harris might be judged as "gross and racist" for doing so. Whatever faults Sam was perceived to have must apply to this blogger because otherwise he or she could not possibly value anything Sam had to say. This sort of guilt by association involved condemning someone who chose to associate with persons who critics considered "problematic."

As irrational and counter to freethought as this sort of thing was, it could have been much worse. At least with this type of guilt by association, the condemned was being negatively evaluated on the basis of a choice he or she had made (i.e., the choice to associate with or promote someone who Scientologists might label a "suppressive person"). This was part of what led those issuing the condemnation to feel it was justified. They were condemning someone for something that person had done, something they regarded as a bad decision.

There is a different type of guilt by association, though, and it is one that is much less rational, far harder to justify, and more toxic. This other type of guilt by association has nothing whatsoever to do with any decisions someone makes or any actions he or she has taken. It involves condemning someone for the actions of others, actions over which the condemned has no control. In fact, the condemned does not even typically know what is happening until it is far too late.

This sounds vague, so we need an example. Suppose that a blogger writes a post critical of Islam in which she highlights the perils of women living in a predominately Muslim country like Saudi Arabia. Now suppose that a member of a thoroughly vile far-right group (i.e., a group that is genuinely bigoted against Muslims) finds her post, decides that a portion of it would serve to advance their cause, and begins to promote it. Perhaps it is shared on this group's social media channels where other members of the group "like" or retweet it. This second type of guilt by association occurs when others decide to condemn our blogger because members of this far-right group like her and have promoted her work. They are bad people, so anything they like must be bad.

Granted, some of those seeking to condemn our blogger may recognize that condemning someone because someone else likes their work is more than a little unfair. But instead of backing off, they seek evidence to support their condemnation. They'll go through every word the blogger has written to find anything they can use against her. And if they can't find much, some will go so far as to distort what they find to justify their condemnation. They will accuse her of saying things she never said and twist her words into whatever they need her to have said in order to feel justified in their condemnation.

I realize that the problem with hypothetical examples like this is that they may sound unrealistic. Here's a concrete example of the sort of guilt by association I am describing here in the form of an unfortunate piece written by Stephen Ledrew at Religion Dispatches. Essentially, Sam Harris is condemned for a combination of the distortions Ledrew engages (Sam has rebutted these distortions repeatedly on The Rubin Report) and because some of the dreaded "alt-right" has supported some of what Sam has said. Ledrew gives Richard Dawkins the same treatment. His argument boils down to this: these men are bad because some bad people like them.

This is a particularly toxic form of guilt by association. Harris and Dawkins are responsible for their own words and deeds; they are not responsible for who likes them. The same is true for you or I. The notion of condemning someone on the basis of who likes them is about as irrational and tribalistic as it gets. As freethinkers, we can do better.

Copyright © 2017 Atheist Revolution.


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Gundlach: Ignore Stocks, "There Is A Stealth Flight To Safety Going On"

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Not only is the Trump rally over, but stocks are the last to get the memo. That's the current market summary according to DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach who told Reuters that "there is a stealth flight to safety going on."

Among key indicators, Gundlach pointed to German Bunds and especially Schatz (2Yr), noting that "German bond yields are leading the way down," adding that "Gold is rising." He also warned that "speculators remain massively short bonds and the market is going to squeeze them out."

As we showed last Friday, the yield on German Schatz plunged to a record -0.96%. Earlier that day, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said "I've no idea why Bunds are rallying so hard at the moment."

That said, a simple reason for the collapse in German yields may have little to do with political risk or fear of the upcoming European elections, and everything to do with the ECB running out of eligible securities to monetize. As Citi's Jamie Searle calculated last week, the ECB needs to buy around EU80b in 1y-6y German paper by year-end, and as a result traders are merely frontrunning the ECB. As a result, Citi expects that not only will the 2Y tumble below 1% but the 10Y Bund yield will plunge again, dropping as low as -0.10%.

Back in the US, US yields have given up much of their "Trumflation", post-election gains, and on Friday, the 10-year traded at 2.32%, compared with 2.388% late on Thursday. Yields fell as low as 2.313 percent, the lowest since November.

Gundlach, who oversees $101 billion, first introduced his view on the 10-year yield's bottom in January. He then said on an investor webcast: "I think the 10-year Treasury will go below 2.25 percent ... not below 2 percent" before edging up again. As of this moment, we are just 7 basis point away from Gundlach being proven correct again.

As a result of the latest inflation trade unwind, Gundlach said the U.S. Treasury should consider issuing ultra-long-term obligations. "I’d issue the longest maturity Treasuries that the market accepts," Gundlach said. "Start with 40-year, then keep extending if the market allows it. Do 100 if you can get there. The timing is good right now." Of course, the mere hint that the US would so dramatically change its issuance calendar would very likely result in another steep selloff on concerns about duration realignment, and the sudden "unpredictable" shift in the world's deepest and most liquid bond market.

Meanwhile, touching on stocks which soared in the last minute - literally - of trading to close at yet another all time high, Gundlach noted that "stocks are out of sync with the stealth flight to safety. Lots of hope built in."

Back in December, Gundlach said that "the bar was so low on Trump to the point people were expecting markets will go down 80 percent and global depression - and now this guy is the Wizard of Oz and so expectations are high. There's no magic here." So far the magic remains, even if it is on the back of retail investors rushing into ETFs , even as the smart money is selling.

Despite the historical accuracy of Gundlach forecasts, DoubleLine's flagship Total Return Fund (with $54.7 billion in assets) has trailed its peer category so far this year, posting year-to-date returns of 0.70% lagging 73% of its peer category. However, if the like of Goldman are correct, and volatility returns to stocks in the coming days, leading to a wholesale flight to safety into fixed income, we are confident that DoubleLine will fade the gap with his competitors on very short notice.



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