Houston floods show risks of ignoring science and letting developers run rampant

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Since Houston, Texas was founded nearly two centuries ago, Houstonians have been treating its wetlands as stinky, mosquito-infested blots in need of drainage.

Even after it became a widely accepted scientific fact that wetlands can soak up large amounts of flood water, the city continued to pave over them. The watershed of the White Oak Bayou river, which includes much of northwest Houston, is a case in point. From 1992 to 2010, this area lost more than 70% of its wetlands, according to research (pdf) by Texas A&M University.

In the false-color satellite images below, plants and other vegetation appear green, while urbanized and developed areas appear blue and purple. Drag the slider to see how northwest Houston has changed since 1986.

In recent days, the flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey has raised water levels in some parts of the watershed high enough to completely cover a Cadillac. The vanished wetlands wouldn’t have prevented flooding, but they would have made it less painful, experts say.

The Harvey-wrought devastation is just the latest example of the consequences of Houston’s gung-ho approach to development. The city, the largest in the US with no zoning laws, is a case study in limiting government regulations and favoring growth—often at the expense of the environment. As water swamps many of its neighborhoods, it’s now also a cautionary tale of sidelining science and plain common sense. Given the Trump administration’s assault on environmental protections, it’s one that Americans elsewhere should pay attention to.

A distaste for regulation

Wetland loss is one of the many effects of lax rules. The construction of flood-prone buildings in flood plains is another one: The elderly residents of La Vita Bella, a nursing home in Dickinson, east of Houston, were up to their waists in water before they got rescued. The home is within the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) designated flood zone.

Yet another consequence is that too few people have flood insurance. Although federal rules require certain homeowners to carry it, those rules are based on outdated flood data. Only a little over a quarter of the homes in “high risk” areas in Harris County, where Houston sits, have flood insurance. The share is even lower, 15%, in many other areas that will also no doubt suffer water damage from Harvey.

 “We’re going to spend tens of billions of dollars rebuilding Houston exactly like it is now, and then wait for the next one.” And that’s before Trump came into office and started removing layers of regulation. Just 10 days before Harvey struck, the president signed an executive order that rescinded federal flood protection standards put in place by his predecessor, Barack Obama. FEMA and the US Housing and Urban Development Department, the two federal agencies that will handle most of the huge pile of cash expected for the rebuilding of Houston, would have been forced to require any rebuilding to confirm to new, safer codes. Now, they won’t.

“What’s likely to happen is we’re going to spend tens of billions of dollars rebuilding Houston exactly like it is now, and then wait for the next one,” says Rob Moore, a senior policy analyst on water issues for the Natural Resources Defense Council.

To take another example: Obama had greatly expanded the number of wetlands protected by the Clean Water Act. This federal law requires developers who destroy wetlands to mitigate the ecological effects, for instance by creating new wetlands elsewhere. In February, the Trump administration said it would repeal (paywall) Obama’s decision, meaning a lot more wetlands would lose that protection. (The repeal process is still unfolding.)

Not that Houston has ever been a stickler for federal rules. To get a permit under the Clean Water Act, developers who build in protected wetland areas must submit paperwork showing they’ve completed mitigation measures. In 2015, Texas A&M and non-profit research group HARC analyzed a sample of permits issued from 1990 to 2012 in the greater Houston area. They found that in fewer than half of the cases had the developers submitted complete paperwork, and in two thirds of the cases, there was no documentation that any type of mitigation had happened. Another study (pdf) by the same two groups looked at a dozen projects that had obtained permits, and found that only two of them had successfully offset wetland destruction, seven were partially successful, and three were complete failures.

And that’s only projects subject to federal regulations. The researchers found that the vast majority of wetland-disrupting activities aren’t subject to those rules. “The inevitable resultant freshwater wetland loss is therefore often uncounted and unmitigated,” they wrote (pdf).

Draining the swamp

Largely unobstructed either by rules or by natural features such as mountains, the Houston area sprawled. Between 1992 and 2010 alone nearly 25,000 acres (about 10,000 hectares) of natural wetland infrastructure was wiped out, the Texas A&M research shows. Most of the losses were in Harris County, where almost 30% of wetlands disappeared.

Altogether, the region lost the ability to handle nearly four billion gallons (15 billion liters) of storm water. That’s equivalent to $600 million worth of flood water detention capacity, according to the university researchers’ calculations.

To be sure, that’s a drop in the bucket of what Harvey will eventually unleash. The estimate was already at nine trillion gallons a couple of days after the storm made landfall. But saving and restoring wetlands is nonetheless an important part of making Houston more storm resistant, says Mary Edwards, a wetlands specialist at Texas A&M’s AgriLife Extension.

Much of the destroyed wetlands were covered with pavement to accommodate the region’s explosive population growth. So these days, even a run-of-the-mill storm causes water to gush down the streets and can lead to flooding. “We generated a lot of runoff and until now we haven’t been able to keep up,” she said.

It won’t be long before remaining undeveloped places in the Houston area are swallowed up. Take a look at the Brays Bayou watershed, in southwestern Houston. The maps below show how the area lost nearly half of its wetlands, shown in purple, as development (the gray areas) expanded. The area has flooded for the past three years in a row.

Brays_Bayou_Land_Cover_1996Brays_Bayou_Land_Cover_2010

It’s not just wetlands that are being destroyed. Prairies, which also act as floodwater sponges, have been decimated too. Below, maps show the change in the Katy Prairie, west of downtown Houston. By 1996, much of it was gone, but another 10% had been lost by 2010, while the developed acreage grew by 40%, data from HARC shows.

Katie_Prairie_Land_Cover_1996

These maps don’t show what has happened over the past seven years. Bill Bass, the HARC geospatial technology expert who put them together for Quartz, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which compiles the data he used, hasn’t released its latest installment, for 2015. That’s the result of another example of shortsightedness; NOAA, one of the government agencies best equipped to generate information for tracking and responding to climate change, has been underfunded for a while, and Trump has proposed cutting its budget even more.

More people = more storm refugees

Houston has been stuck in a vicious circle. More people means more subdivisions, and more subdivisions means more runoff. That results in more flooding, which ends up affecting more people.

John Jacob, a wetlands expert who runs Texas A&M’s Coastal Watershed Program, has been warning about the dangerous effects of bulldozing natural flood barriers for years. The mission of his program is to share the science with communities to help them better cope with the fact that many of them live not much above sea level in hurricane country. He says he sees signs that Houstonians are finally coming to terms with the need to change their ways.

“The idea that we just don’t care is radically changing,” says Jacob. “The real-estate people, to them Houston is a one-night stand. The rest of us want this to be a place where our grandkids are happy and safe… This storm just cements that there’s consequences to the way we’ve done stuff.”

Heather Timmons contributed to this article.

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Houston: The "Surreal" Before And After Photo

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Courtesy of Weather Channel weather producer, Matthew Sitkowski, here is a photo of what Houston's East Loop at Market Street on the I-610 looks like right now. As Sitkowski says, "this image and the forecast of what is still to fall.... This is surreal." He is right: we added a photo of the same location from February 2016 to show the "before and after." Here is the result:

The following time-lapse video shows the Buffalo Bayou next to Houston rising over the past day...

... and its current state:

The rapid raise of the Buffalo Bayou prompted the evacuation of the KHOU 11 TV studio early on Sunday morning:

Unfortunately, there is no relief in sight, as over 20 inches of rain have already fallen on the Lone Star State. With streets flooded and strewn with power lines and debris, authorities warned the storm's most destructive powers were just beginning. Rainfall that will continue for days could dump more than five feet of water and inundate many communities, including dangerously flood-prone Houston, the nation's fourth-largest city. The latest summary of rainfall in the past 24 hours can be found here. Another 20 to 30 inches of rain is expected through to Wednesday.

Meanwhile, a just issued bulletin from the NWS Houston warns that "rivers are on the rise and MAJOR to RECORD flooding is forecast."

By the time the storm ends, 40 inches of rain (a number which now appears conservative) is expected to fall and an estimated $40 billion worth of damage left behind. Putting the number in context, Hurricane Katrina cost $108 billion, mostly as a result of flooding to New Orleans.

For locals trapped in their house as floodwaters rise, the NWS Houston had some words of advice: "EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS REQUESTED: IF HIGHEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME BECOMES DANGEROUS...GET ON THE ROOF."



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This algorithm cleverly recreates 3D objects from tiny 2D images

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With a lifetime of observing the world informing our perceptions, we’re all pretty good at inferring the overall shape of something we only see from the side, or for a brief moment. Computers, however, are just plain bad at it. Fortunately, a clever shortcut created by a Berkeley AI researcher may seriously improve their performance.

It’s useful to be able to see something in 2D and guess accurately the actual volume it takes up — it would help with object tracking in AR and VR, creative workflows, and so on. But it’s hard!

Going up a dimension means you’ve got a lot more data to think about. Take an image that’s a hundred pixels on each side, for a total of 10,000 pixels. An accurate reproduction of it might be a hundred pixels tall as well, making for a total of a million pixels — voxels, actually, now that they’re 3D. And if you want to be even a little more precise, say go up to 128 pixels, you need two million voxels.

What’s in every one of those voxels (i.e. whether it’s “empty” or “full”) has to be calculated by analyzing the original image, and that calculation piles up fast if you want any real fidelity.

The 2D image at left as rendered with a 16-voxel-cubed volume, 32 cubed, and so on. The quality improves but the computational cost skyrockets.

That’s held back the otherwise highly desirable possibility of extrapolating 3D forms from 2D images. But Christian Häne, at the Berkeley Artificial Intelligence Research lab, figured there had to be a better way. His solution is at once computationally clever and forehead-slappingly simple.

He realized that generally you’re not actually calculating a whole volume of 100x100x100, but only trying to describe the surface of an object. The empty space around it and inside it? Doesn’t matter.

So first his system renders a 3D reconstruction of the 2D image in very low resolution. You can still get a lot from that — for example, that the outer third of the whole volume appears to be empty. Boom, throw all that away.

Next, do a higher-resolution render of the area you kept. Oh, the top and bottom are empty, but the middle is full of pixels, except for a big chunk in the center? Throw out the empty bits, rinse and repeat.

Once you do this a few times, you actually have a 3D volume of high spatial resolution that has taken comparatively little calculation to produce, since it’s only ever calculating parts it knows have meaningful information.

The resulting models were compared with ones generated by more traditional means, and generally they appear to be as good or better, while requiring far less computation to create. You can see more examples in the paper,

which you can download from Arxiv here

.

It’s far from a complete solution, and humans are still orders of magnitude better at this. But this is a nice workaround that actually mirrors some of the ways our own visual system optimizes itself. Part of the reason we’re so good at what we do is because our brain is so good at throwing away data it has deemed superfluous to successful perception. You don’t notice these shortcuts most of the time, but occasionally they manifest in things like optical illusions.

Making computers see more like humans do sometimes means mimicking the brain’s weaknesses as well as its strengths. This doesn’t go far enough to really be called anthromimetic, but it’s close — and more importantly, it works.

Featured Image: Christian Häne / UC Berkeley


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Call of Duty: WII beta test gets new recruits: Comcast cable customers

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Comcast announced today that it is giving access to Call of Duty: WWII‘s beta to all of its Xfinity internet customers. The PlayStation 4 beta starts on August 25, while the Xbox One testing starts on September 1. Xfinity owners have to go to this site before August 31 to receive their code.

Call of Duty: WWII is the next installment in the hit shooter series that has sold over 250 million games. This one, which is coming out for PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and PC on November 3, is taking the series back to its World War II roots after multiple games went in a more sci-fi direction.

Beta tests help studios test a game before its release, but they also serve as glorified demos that can help build excitement. The WWII beta is not open, meaning you need a code to access it. So giving Xfinity users a guaranteed way to play could be a nice bonus for its users.



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Companies from Y Combinator’s Summer 2017 Demo Day (Day 2)

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Y Combinator is not just the most prestigious accelerator out there, it’s also the largest. And so, as has been the case for the past several years, there were too many companies to jam them all into one day.

As a result, we once again braved the traffic of the 101 to bring you all the companies presenting on the second of Y Combinator’s day of demos, for what is the 25th batch of startups that have gone through the program.

Without further ado, here are the startups.

Standard Cognition – AI-powered checkout in store

Standard Cognition is using machine vision to build the checkout of the future. Called autonomous checkout, the technology will allow shoppers to grab what they want and walk out of a store without having to go to a cashier. Standard Cognition believes it tech will enable those companies to save money and reduce theft.

Modern Fertility –  At-home test to check and monitor your fertility

Modern Fertility is selling home fertility tests for women to provide transparency at a fraction of the cost of traditional fertility clinics. Having launched just a week and a half ago, Modern Fertility has managed 70,000 pre-orders and it expects each customer to test on a yearly basis. The company is currently selling direct to consumer but also sees potential in selling to businesses. Businesses like AngelList, Plaid and OpenDoor have expressed interest in sponsoring home fertility care for employees.

Read our previous coverage of Modern Fertility here

Dharma Labs – p2p lending on the blockchain

Dharma Labs is building what it calls the first “protocol for debt on blockchains.” Citing the popularity of ICOs, the startup believes that there’s a “proven demand for cryptoassets that look and act much like equity.” So Dharma has built a mechanism for decentralized peer-to-peer lending. “Anyone in the world can borrow and anyone in the world can lend.”

Caelum Health – Replace prescription drugs with software

Sometimes physicians prescribe drugs because they work, and other times it’s because they’re easy. Caelum Health wants to use software to improve people’s health without prescribing them drugs. It’s starting with irritable bowel syndrome, which affects 20 percent of americans and leads to $55 billion worth of prescriptions. Caelum provides behavioral health treatments that it says are 3x more effective than prescription drugs, and has pilots with 7 of the top 10 health systems.

Greo – Social video app for serious conversations

Greo wants to disrupt Twitter and other online forums by creating a better home for healthy intellectual debate. Created by a team of Stanford students, Greo counts about 850 users. The number is small, but the aim seems to be quality over quantity. By forcing people to use their real identity and exposing people to contrasting opinions, Greo thinks it can fill a growing social niche in an age of partisanship.

WheelStreet – India’s largest motorbike rental marketplace

WheelStreet claims to be “India’s largest motorbike rental marketplace.” The startup estimates that of the 600 million people commuting via motorbike, the majority don’t own one. WheelStreet is looking to bring rental inventory online and make it more affordable for everyone. The team works with rental shops and takes a 20% transaction fee. While WheelStreet only has $32,000 in monthly revenue right now, the team expects this to be a $6 billion market opportunity.

Warren Payment – automation for businesses

Warren wants to automate the process of making B2B payments. For most companies, going through the payment flow requires multiple steps to get vendors onboarded and get purchase orders approved. By automating those processes, Warren can reduce costs for businesses thanks to new APIs that make payments easy. In the US alone, there are 2 billion B2B payments made each year, and Warren wants to charge $0.50 each to ease that pain.

OneLocal – Salesforce for local businesses

As Salesforce grows larger and larger, there’s still no shortage of startups digging for overlooked opportunities. OneLocal is the salesforce for (wait for it) local businesses. The reality is that small businesses don’t keep good tabs on their customers — they’re not as easy to corral as customers, but ignored they are. OneLocal has signed up 115 businesses to the tune of $24,000 in monthly recurring revenue. Like Salesforce, OneLocal aims to up-sell with new enterprise apps, designed specifically to solve problems faced by SMBs.

Flowspace – AWS for warehousing

Flowspace is on-demand warehousing for businesses. The startup claims that “there are no good options for short-term warehouse space.” From candy manufacturers ramping up for Halloween season to fast-growing clothing companies, Flowspace believes that there is a market opportunity for temporary warehouses. They estimate that 400,000 companies in the U.S. are in need of flexible warehousing and that the market opportunity is $3.3 billion.

Goosebump – Chatbot that tells you where to go out

Goosebump is a messenger app that helps users find live music events online. There are two trends driving more live music entertainment: first, the move to listening to new artists online, as well as the need for musicians to make money through live performance. Goosebump is already taking advantage of these trends, with 6,000 weekly active users in Paris. And the company is growing 13 percent week over week, with 44 percent of users active weeks after they’ve joined.

Nimble – Better ATS for school districts

Nimble is building an applicant tracking system designed specifically for schools. Rather than offering just a dressed up spreadsheet, Nimble is offering a predictive tool to help inform hiring decisions. The team didn’t go into too many details, but it’s clear that the system as it is is very broken. A paid pilot is coming this fall and the folks behind Nimble say that they have two letters of intent in hand for said pilots.

Retool – A faster way to build internal tools

Retool markets itself as “a faster way to build internal tools.” The startup estimates that about half of all the code in the world is used for internal company procedures, yet most of the process is continuously replicated because the code is so similar. These companies are “writing the same code over and over again” and wasting time, Retool claims. The team says it has built a tool that makes building this code faster. Retool says they’ve already signed on a large enterprise customer in a paid pilot worth $1.5 million.

Dahmakan – Full stack food delivery for Southeast Asia

Dahmakan delivers ready-to-eat meals in SE Asia, controlling the entire process from food production to delivery. Because cities in Asia have 4x higher urban density than cities in the US and have 1/10 the labor costs, Dahmakan has been able to reach a 37 percent gross margin after food, labor, packaging and delivery costs. After launching in Kuala Lumpur, the company is on a $1.8 million revenue run rate and has plans to expand to eight more markets.

Read our previous coverage of DahMakan here.

Covetly – Collectibles marketplace app

Communities are very powerful in the world of marketplaces. Covetly is looking to build an eBay competitor on the back of niche collectors. With 13,000 monthly active users and just six sellers, the platform has seen $4,000 in sales. The hope seems to be that increasing the number of sellers from six to 500 will drastically increase sales to cannibalize more of the $10 billion collector market.

Read our previous coverage of Covetly here.

Original Tech – Software for banks to accept loan/account applications online

Original Tech is software for banks to accept loan and other account applications online. The team says that they are putting an end to paper applications and helping lenders digitize their financial technology through its mobile-first white label platform. They have signed up 13 contracts in two months and believe this is a $1.5 billion market opportunity.

Read our previous coverage of Original Tech here.

Vanido – Vanido is your personal AI music teacher, starting with singing

Vanido wants to be your AI-based music teacher, starting with helping users learn to sing. Americans spend $1.2 billion on singing lessons every year, and Vanido wants to make those lessons accessible to anyone with a smartphone. Users sing into their smartphone, and the app listens to their voices and corrects them, helping users to improve their signing by 34 percent. Already the company has more than 25,000 monthly active users who have completed 2 million exercises so far.

Entocycle – Sustainable insect protein for farm animals

Entocycle is building an automated factory to produce fish protein feed. The market sounds almost comically niche, but we were reassured that the space is valued at a robust $15 billion. Entocycle’s automated factory actually produces insects. The group feeds waste to the bugs and then, when it’s grown enough, it sells the insects to farms to feed animals. Prices have been steadily increasing for this feed, so the startup believes it can capture a meaningful portion of the market by cutting its own costs and selling to its customers at 20 percent below market rate.

Read our previous coverage of Entocycle here.

Guilded – Team Management for eSports

Guilded built what they’re calling “team management for eSports.” On games like League of Legends and Overwatch, users play in groups and Guilded believes that these teams are looking for help in recruiting and organizing. Guilded says its recently-launched app is already the #1 app for Overwatch teams and claims that they can ultimately reach up to 700 million gamers. The founder previously worked on the growth team at Instagram.

Read our previous coverage of Guilded here.

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Lambda School – An online code bootcamp with no upfront cost

Lambda School trains people to be software engineers in live online classes. Those classes are free to students, and the company makes money off employee referrals to companies looking to hire developers who have graduated. The company has signed up 50 hiring partners who are waiting to snap up graduating students. Its 170 students currently enrolled represent $4 million in future revenue. The company has just a 3 percent approval rate and its costs are less than $3,000 per student, including acquisition costs.

Read our previous coverage of Lambda School here.

Plasticity – APIs for natural language processing.

Between the major cloud providers, there are already a myriad of natural language processing tools available for machine learning developers. Unafraid, Plasticity is moving full steam ahead to become the Twilio of NLP. It has a signed letter of intent from Duck Duck Go worth $1.2 million and interest from others in using the Plasticity API for automating message replies.

Read our previous coverage of Plasticity here.

Piggy – Vanguard for India

Piggy is an app for Indians to invest in their retirement savings. Calling themselves the “Vanguard for India,” they allow users to invest in over 2000 mutual funds. Estimating that there will be over 600 billion invested in Indian retirement accounts by 2025, Piggy believes that that there is a large market opportunity. The team has already accrued $30 million in assets and claims to be growing 90% month-over-month. Piggy says it has been able to grow entirely through word-of-mouth because the commission-free service allows users to earn 1% more annually.

Read our previous coverage of Piggy here.

Fat Lama – Fully insured p2p rental marketplace

Fat Lama is a fully insured peer-to-peer rental marketplace for high-value items. Because all items made available are insured, users are ok with putting expensive DJ equipment, photography equipment and active sports gear on the site. As a result the company was able to do $21,000 in net revenue on more than $80,000 in GMV last month. Also, the company is growing 60 percent month over month, thanks to a trend away from ownership and a move toward borrowing high-value goods on-demand.

Read our previous coverage of Fat Lama here.

Solve – Airport concierge for international travellers

Traveling through airports hasn’t evoked the nostalgia of the golden age of air travel for quite some time. Lines are long, logistics are complex and security is tight. Solve promises to save travelers time in airports. At $125 per person, Solve will handle your luggage, coordinate vehicles and manage arrivals, departures and connections. The service is available in 500 airports and the team is expecting $16,000 in revenue this month.

Read our previous coverage of Solve here.

Sunfolding – Hardware for solar farms

Sunfolding is building “next-generation infrastructure for solar farms.” The team is creating what they are calling the “next generation of trackers,” with machines that are faster and cheaper than the solar trackers of generations past. The startup is marketing itself as a business “replacing complex machinery with air” and has signed up $1.5 million in projects for 2017.

Enzyme – FDA compliance as a service

Enzyme is building software to help life sciences companies with FDA approval and regulatory compliance. Using Enzyme’s software, those companies can avoid spending money on costly consultants which in turn can reduce their compliance costs by up to 50 percent. Since 10 percent of all personnel in biopharma and life sciences companies are related to regulatory issues, it can lower headcount as well. Perhaps most importantly, Enzyme can also make it easier and faster for those companies to bring their products to market.

Surematics – Software that helps structure commercial insurance contracts

Surematics is helping commercial insurance brokers structure complicated deals online. Homeowners and car insurance is enough of a nightmare for most of us to handle but Surematics is targeting even more difficult cases — awkward expensive items like oil rigs. With a dash of blockchain, the startup wants to allow companies to collaborate together to create enforceable contracts.

Templarbit – Protects applications from malicious activity

Templarbit is a startup for protecting applications from malicious activity known as “xss attacks.” The team estimates that these cyber threats count for almost 50% of all security issues. In the first month, the startup has already signed up 15 customers, including Match.com, AdRoll and Mercedes-Benz. The team says their early traction is because they’ve taken a “difficult, manual process” and made it so that just one line of code is needed.

Just Appraised – Better appraisal software for governments

Every year, local governments have to appraise properties to determine their value. Since about a third of all local government revenues come from property taxes, they rely on that data, but collecting the information is inefficient and frequently inaccurate. Just Appraised uses machine learning to evaluate public and private data, which enables it to build a comprehensive proprietary dataset. In addition to money it makes from local governments, that dataset can be resold to other companies relying on property value information in the real estate industry.

Advano – Higher energy density batteries

Advano is building lithium ion batteries that can store more energy at higher density using silicon-based additives. The team of nine scientists says that it has long been known that adding silicon to batteries allows them to store more energy. But unfortunately this has always come with sacrifices in battery life. Advano’s technology does away with this compromise. The company’s letters of intent are valued at $4.2 million and include requests for both both IoT batteries and 9.6MWh battery packs.

AutoHub – Dealer to dealer used car marketplace

AutoHub is creating a marketplace for car dealers to buy and sell used cars from each other. Previously, dealers relied on offline auctions for the roughly eight cars they were buying every week. AutoHub says there is typically an added cost of $850 per car sold, but that its marketplace will charge less than half of that at $400 per car. The team believes that replacing offline auctions is an $8 billion addressable market. So far, AutoHub has sold $400,000 worth of cars in its first six weeks.

Quilt Data – Docker for data

Enterprises like to say they’re data driven, but for many that data is a mess spread across the organization. Quilt wants to help businesses integrate their data sources to make sure everyone in the company is on the same page, and has already been adopted by some of the largest banks. By defining data “packages,” Quilt wants to become a sort of Docker for data, making it more discoverable and actionable across its clients.

Headstart – Using AI to replace the resume screen.

Automated resume reviews are horrible. Large Fortune 500 companies receive millions of job applications each year and the review process is so poor that great apps are missed on the regular. Headstart is adding machine learning into the mix to automatically rank applicants to assist human hiring teams. This tool alone promises to cut hiring time by 60 percent. With $325,000 in annual recurring revenue, Headstart is already making progress capturing the $4 billion market.

Read our previous coverage of Headstart here.

BillionToOne – Fetal genetic testing

BillionToOne is trying to be a “safe prenatal genetic test for all mothers.” The blood test helps check for fetal disorders like sickle cell and beta-thalassemia, without the miscarriage risk that comes through amniocentesis tests. The team claims that the first test they’ve developed is at least 99% accurate. BillionToOne is launching in the U.S. in 2018 and will expand globally, with a focus on market opportunities in India and China.

Bxblue – Marketplace for personal loans in Brazil

Bxblue provides a marketplace for personal loans in Brazil, focused on pensioners and government employees. Those borrowers can get secured loans because they have guaranteed income, and banks love these loans because they can deduct payments direct from borrower’s paychecks. Today the market is almost entirely offline, making it difficult for borrowers to compare rates . It’s a $4 billion market opportunity, with the potential of 42 million Brazilian borrowers Bxblue could go after.

Read our previous coverage of Bxblue here.

Gameday – Fantasy sports app for everyone

Gameday thinks Draft Kings and FanDuel have completely ignored casual fantasy sports players. To fill that void, the startup is simplifying fantasy sports and integrating with Facebook messenger. About 70 percent of the company’s 50,000 weekly active users are first time players of fantasy sports and 60 percent of them have continued to use Gameday over a 20 week period. Eventually Gameday wants to grow to accommodate as many leagues as it can as it aims to grow the entire fantasy space.

Read our previous coverage of Gameday here.

VIDA & Co. – Marketplace for apparel designed on-demand by artists.

VIDA & Co. is a marketplace for “unique products” built on-demand and at scale. The “millennial generation is rejecting the standardized mass produced goods” and so customized products has become a $140 billion market, the startup claims. VIDA & Co. has created a platform for these personalized items. The team is targeting creative people like Instagram photographers or graphic designers and helps them turn their visions into products. VIDA & Co. has already worked with big brands like Steve Madden, HSN and the Golden Globe Awards.

LotusPay – Recurring payments in India

LotusPay wants to become the infrastructure small and medium-sized businesses in India use to power recurring payments. In India, 75 percent of recurring payments are made by consumers who line up to pay with cash or check. But that’s changing, thanks to the government launching e-mandate, a new system that allows consumers to allow businesses to automatically debit their bank accounts. LotusPay has built the payments infrastructure that can be used by businesses to avoid having to build it out themselves, and has an addressable market for 5 million SMEs.

Contract Simply – Construction lending software for banks

Crunchbase

    • Founded 2005
    • Overview Y Combinator is a startup accelerator based in Mountain View, CA. In 2005, Y Combinator developed a new model of startup funding. Twice a year they invest a small amount of money ($120K) in a large number of startups (most recently 68). The startups move to Silicon Valley for 3 months. The YC partners work closely with each company to get them into the best possible shape and refine their pitch …
    • Location Mountain View, CA
    • Categories Finance, Venture Capital, Consulting
    • Website http://ift.tt/hXEExq
    • Full profile for Y Combinator

The fact that large construction projects are delayed by complex payment processes isn’t surprising. Contract Simply is building a platform to expedite the payment process that can involve a complex array of stakeholders. At its core, Contract Simply is a cloud-based workflow management tool that allows for faster capital deployment. The startup counts seven pilot users and projects $4 million in annual recurring revenue.

PreDxion Bio – A blood test to save critically ill patients in the ER.

PreDxion Bio believes that it has a blood test that could cut down on deaths in emergency rooms. The team says that previous blood tests often took over three days to get back and that about half a million people die per year because of the delays. They’ve built a test that can help doctors gain insight into inflammatory biomarkers, making it easier to treat things like trauma and burns. The startup is starting clinical trials this fall at UCSF, Mayo Clinic and Mount Sinai hospitals.

CarDash – Managed marketplace for auto repair

CarDash is a managed marketplace for auto service, going after the $170 billion market for maintenance and repairs in the U.S. The company believes that a managed marketplace is the future of the industry because it inspires trust, provides convenience and offers transparent pricing to consumers. For mechanics, the company provides free software and a line of new customers, also helping to automate the customer service experience for all involved. To date the company has grown by promoting itself as a workplace benefit provided to consumers by their employers, but also offers service direct to consumers.

Read our previous coverage of CarDash here.

HotelFlex – Check into your hotel room at anytime you want

We have all flown into a city on a red eye and landed at an early hour wanting nothing more than a bed and a few pillows. Alas, most hotels have strict check in policies that prevent this from happening. Hotels are complex operations and upending cleaning and other key logistical procedures for convenience isn’t easy. HotelFlex provides infrastructure for hotel guests to pay a premium for more flexible check-in. At a 15 percent up charge, 9 percent of guests were willing to pay the premium. This translates into $170 per room per year in revenue. HotelFlex has an initial pilot with a hotel chain valued at $2 million in annual recurring revenue.

Read our previous coverage of HotelFlex here.

Muzmatch – Where single muslims meet

Muzmatch is an app where single Muslims meet. The startup estimates that there are 400 million single Muslims worldwide and that they are spending $7.2 billion on matchmaking. Muzmatch launched two years ago and has attracted 220,000 users, with 56,000 of them still coming back monthly. Some have gone off the service because they’ve found a match. 6,250 couples have met on the service and they are already plenty of “Muzmatch babies.”

Read our previous coverage of Muzmatch here.

Leon & George – Indoor plants as a service

Leon & George sells plants online for homes and offices, helping users to find the right plants given a certain environment. The plant industry accounts for $40 billion in sales each year. Plants are everywhere and demand is growing, but they can’t be served by traditional ecommerce platforms and don’t work with the existing delivery infrastructure. As a result, Leon & George is expecting to do $55,000 in revenue this month and has a 57% gross margin.

Value Voting – Tech to defeat extremism in US politics

Value Voting is looking to catalyze action in politics by increasing the power of advocacy organizations. The Value Voting platform helps independent advocacy groups share data and collaborate. The team didn’t disclose revenue or growth numbers but insisted that it fully intends to be a for-profit company.

Read our previous coverage of Value Voting here.

AssemblyAI – Customizable Speech-to-text API

AssemblyAI is API for speech recognition. They’ve built “accurate, simple and customizable” technology that the team claims is what “Stripe did to payments,” but for speech. The voice technology industry is growing fast, due to the popularity of Siri, Alexa and Google Home. AssemblyAI believes that 50% of searches will be made by your voice by 2020. “Every single product is going to use voice in some way.” They hope that AssemblyAI’s technology, which can be customized in just one line of code, will gain traction.

Read our previous coverage of AssemblyAI here.

Loop Support – Customer support as a service

Loop Support provides customer support as a service to companies. Using a combination of humans and AI, the company is able to solve tickets faster and cheaper than most companies’ in-house support teams. Reps trains themselves using Loop Support’s software, and can serve companies in their spare time. That allows its clients to scale their support teams up or down at will. The result is a business that is growing 84 percent month over month.

FriendSpot – Next generation group chat

The former Facebook team behind FriendSpot believes that fear of missing out is a key emotion that can form the underpinnings of an entirely new social network. Their idea is to allow users to form specific event-centric chat groups. As more people join each group, incentives increase for others to join. The network is growing by 40 percent per week with 33 percent retention over a 28 period.

Disclosures.io – Property disclosure software

Disclosures.io builds software to help real estate agents manage property disclosures such as leaking roofs and broken sewer lines. Hoping to become the “system of record for all real estate transaction data,” the startup says it is going after real estate agents because they spend about $1 billion per year to manage disclosure documents. Since launching in January, they’ve attracted 615 customers and are working with big names in real estate like Sotheby’s and Pacific Union. Ultimately, the team wants to “build software to support their entire workflow, not just disclosures.”

Helix Nanotechnologies – Making drugs in patients’ muscles via synbio.

Helix Nanotechnologies uses artificial intelligence to help cure genetic diseases. Errors in DNA causes cancer in cells, but by using cutting edge AI, Helix is trying to unlock the nucleus of cells and deliver new DNA. Already, it’s licensing its technology to four major firms, but looking to develop its own cell therapy. With just a shot in the arm a couple of times a year, Helix believes it could build a platform to cure and prevent all genetic diseases.

CureSkin – AI dermatologist on smartphone

India is facing a massive shortage of dermatologists. There simply are not enough doctors to address the existing needs of the massive Indian market. CureSkin is using computer vision to recommend treatment to patients who don’t have access to trained professionals. With just a photo, CureSkin can diagnose approximately 80 percent of skin conditions and recommend treatment regimens. 7,000 patients are using CureSkin each week and half of those users come back for issues later on.

Py – Teach coders new skills on mobile

Py is an app for teaching coders new skills. From Python to iOS development, they help software engineers learn and also match them with jobs. With a ranking system that can identify strengths in categories like data science and app development, Py believes that it will help job seekers demonstrate what they’re good at. With 100,000 monthly active users, Py hopes to make a dent in what it estimates is a $3 billion market opportunity.

Read our previous coverage of Py here.

HealthWiz – SaaS platform for lowering employer healthcare costs

HealthWiz lowers health costs for businesses while also helping their employees find better care. Every year, employers waste $4,000 in healthcare costs due to their employees not choosing the right care providers. When providing HealthWiz as a benefit, their employees can find cheaper and faster ways to get a prescription. The company is going after a market that affects 50 million potential employees and it’s already testing with thousands of users.

CocuSocial – Marketplace for local activities

CocuSocial managed to build the largest marketplace for cooking classes in New York City in just a year of operation. With that as a starting point, the company hopes to spread across the country providing wine tasting, painting classes, dance classes and floral design instruction. Swallowing the entirety of the $27 billion market opportunity might not be feasible in the short term but the team is taking in what it can manage with $21,000 in monthly net revenue on 58 percent month over month growth.

Read our previous coverage of CocuSocial here.

Rev Genomics – Cannabis genomics company

Rev Genomics thinks that it can create the best marijuana with biotechnology. Using everything from CRISPR to genomic selection, the startup believes that it has what it takes to make the “best cannabis in the world.” They are also targeting Botrytis, a fungus which can destroy cannabis crops. By “quantifying the gene expression levels of all 30,000 genes in the cannabis genome,” Rev Genomics says it will create plants with higher yields. The startup hopes to someday be the “Monsanto of Cannibis.”

Tpaga – Mobile wallet for Latin America

Tpaga is looking to own the mobile wallet space in Latin America. The founding team is responsible for Columbia’s largest taxi app. Following in the path of other taxi apps that have added mobile wallets, its 50,000 taxi drivers will serve as the initial users of Tpaga. After that, Tpaga hopes to add a large super market chain, a large gas station chain, 10 cell phone carriers and 25 utilities providers. The app is set to launch on October 1st and the team is using the runway between now and then to ensure a market exists for new users.

NextDrop – The private water marketplace for urban India

NextDrop connects water buyers with water sellers in India, where private water is often delivered by truck. The cost of water has tripled in the last decade and continues to go up, making it more expensive than electricity now. NextDrop launched over the summer, has 3 pilot apartment customers, and is going after a billion-dollar market in urban India.

Mystery Science – Virtual science expert to co-teach class

Mystery Science aims to fix STEM education by giving elementary school teachers a virtual science expert to co-teach classes. Estimating that 94% of elementary schools don’t have science teachers, Mystery Science says that it is addressing this problem with experts Skyping into classrooms everyday. Launched last year, they already brought in $1.4 million in ARR, by convincing schools to pay for its services. This year the startup is forecasting $3.5 million in ARR, with $1.5 million in profit. Mystery Science also plans to expand beyond schools and complete with Discovery and National Geographic with its direct-to-consumer product.

Read our previous coverage of Mystery Science here.



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The Neurodiversity Case for Free Speech

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Editor’s note: this article was updated on August 6th 2017, to better reflect current terminology relating to neurodiversity.

Imagine a young Isaac Newton time-travelling from 1670s England to teach Harvard undergrads in 2017. After the time-jump, Newton still has an obsessive, paranoid personality, with Asperger’s syndrome, a bad stutter, unstable moods, and episodes of psychotic mania and depression. But now he’s subject to Harvard’s speech codes that prohibit any “disrespect for the dignity of others”; any violations will get him in trouble with Harvard’s Inquisition (the ‘Office for Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion’). Newton also wants to publish Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica, to explain the laws of motion governing the universe. But his literary agent explains that he can’t get a decent book deal until Newton builds his ‘author platform’ to include at least 20k Twitter followers – without provoking any backlash for airing his eccentric views on ancient Greek alchemy, Biblical cryptography, fiat currency, Jewish mysticism, or how to predict the exact date of the Apocalypse.

Newton wouldn’t last long as a ‘public intellectual’ in modern American culture. Sooner or later, he would say ‘offensive’ things that get reported to Harvard and that get picked up by mainstream media as moral-outrage clickbait. His eccentric, ornery awkwardness would lead to swift expulsion from academia, social media, and publishing. Result? On the upside, he’d drive some traffic through HuffpostBuzzfeed, and Jezebel, and people would have a fresh controversy to virtue-signal about on Facebook. On the downside, we wouldn’t have Newton’s Laws of Motion.

Let’s take a step back from this alt-history nightmare and consider the general problem of ‘neurodiversity’ and free speech. In this article, I’ll explore the science of neurodiversity, and how campus speech codes and restrictive speech norms impose impossible expectations on the social sensitivity, cultural awareness, verbal precision, and self-control of many neurodivergent people.

I’ll focus on how campus speech codes impose discriminatory chilling effects on academic neurodiversity, partly because I’m a nerdy academic who loathes speech codes. But it’s not just personal. Ever since the Middle Ages, universities have nurtured people with unusual brains and minds. Historically, academia was a haven for neurodiversity of all sorts. Eccentrics have been hanging out in Cambridge since 1209 and in Harvard since 1636. For centuries, these eccentricity-havens have been our time-traveling bridges from the ancient history of Western civilization to the far future of science, technology, and moral progress. Now thousands of our havens are under threat, and that’s sad and wrong, and we need to fix it.

This article is a bit long, because the argument is new (as far as I know), and it requires a bit of background. But I hope you’ll stick with me, because I think the issue is neglected and important. (A note on terminology: universities are commonly assumed to be ‘neurohomogenous’, where everyone is ‘neurotypical’, but in fact they are ‘neurodiverse’ and include many ‘neurodivergent’ people, who cluster into ‘neurominorities’ sharing certain conditions, and who may become ‘Neurodiversity Movement’ activists to advocate for their rights. People with Asperger’s syndrome sometimes call themselves ‘aspies’. The ‘neurodiversity’ term came originally from the Autism Rights Movement, but now includes many variations in brain function apart from the autism spectrum.)

From eccentricity to neurodiversity

Censorship kills creativity, truth, and progress in obvious ways. Without the free exchange of ideas, people can’t share risky new ideas (creativity), test them against other people’s logic and facts (truth), or compile them into civilizational advances (progress). But censorship also kills rational culture in a less obvious way: it silences the eccentric. It discriminates against neurominorities. It imposes a chilling effect on unusual brains that house unusual minds. It marginalizes people who may have great ideas, but who also happen to have mental disorders, personality quirks, eccentric beliefs, or unusual communication styles that make it hard for them to understand and follow the current speech norms that govern what is ‘acceptable’. Harvard’s speech codes and Twitter’s trolls may not prohibit anything in Principiaitself, but they drive away the kinds of eccentric people who write such books because of all the other ‘offensive’ things they sometimes do and say.

Eccentricity is a precious resource, easily wasted. In his book On Liberty (1859): John Stuart Mill warned that ‘the tyranny of the majority’ tends to marginalize the insights of the eccentric:

The amount of eccentricity in a society has generally been proportional to the amount of genius, mental vigour, and moral courage which it contained. That so few now dare to be eccentric, marks the chief danger of the time. (Chapter 3, paragraph 13).

Nowadays, the tyranny of the neurotypical oppressing the neurodivergent may be the chief danger of our time.

The neurotypicality assumption behind speech codes

Campus speech codes may have been well-intentioned at first. They tried to make universities more welcoming to racial and sexual minorities by forcing everyone to speak as inoffensively as possible. But a side-effect of trying to increase demographic diversity was to reduce neurodiversity, by stigmatizing anyone whose brain can’t color inside the lines of ‘appropriate speech’. The more ‘respectful’ campuses became to the neurotypical, the more alienating they became to the neurodivergent.

Here’s the problem. America’s informal ‘speech norms’, which govern what we’re allowed to say and what we’re not, were created and imposed by ‘normal’ brains, for ‘normal’ brains to obey and enforce. Formal speech codes at American universities were also written by and for the ‘neurotypical’. They assume that everyone on campus is equally capable, 100% of the time, of:

  • Using their verbal intelligence and cultural background to understand speech codes that are intentionally vague, over-broad, and euphemistic, to discern who’s actually allowed to say what, in which contexts, using which words;
  • Understand what’s inside the current Overton windowof ‘acceptable ideas’, including the current social norms about what is ‘respectful’ versus what is ‘offensive’, ‘inappropriate’, ‘sexist’, ‘racist’, ‘Islamophobic’, or ‘transphobic’;
  • Use ‘Theory of Mind’ to predict with 100% accuracy which speech acts might be offensive to someone of a different sex, age, race, ethnicity, national origin, sexual orientation, religion, or political outlook;
  • Inhibit ‘inappropriate’ speech with 100% reliability in all social contexts that might be reported or recorded by others;
  • Predict with 100% accuracy what’s likely to trigger outrage by peers, student activists, social media, or mainstream media – any of which might create ‘adverse publicity’ for the university and a speech code inquisition, without due process or right of appeal, for the speaker.

Speech codes assume a false model of human nature – that everyone has the same kind of brain that yields a narrow, ‘normal’ set of personality traits, cognitive and verbal abilities, moral temperaments, communication styles, and capacities for self-inhibition. This neurotypicality assumption is scientifically wrong, because different people inherit different sets of genes that influence how their brains grow and function, and every mental trait shows substantial heritability. These heritable mental traits run deep: they are stable across adolescence and adulthood, and they span everything from social intelligence to political attitudes. They also predict many aspects of human communication – probably including the ability to understand and follow formal speech codes and informal speech norms. The neurodivergent are often just ‘born that way’.

Why speech codes stigmatize the most creative thinkers

When universities impose speech codes, they impose impossible behavioral standards on people who aren’t neurotypical, such as those with Asperger’s, bipolar, Tourette’s, or dozens of other personality quirks or mental ‘disorders’. Historically, neurodiversity was stigmatized with extreme prejudice, but recently the Autism Rights Movement, the National Alliance for Mental Illness, and other advocacy groups have fought for more acceptance. Neurodiversity is even celebrated in recent books such as Thinking in Pictures by Temple Grandin (on Asperger’s syndrome), A Beautiful Mind by Sylvia Nasar (on schizophrenia), The Wisdom of Psychopaths by Kevin Dutton (on Dark Triad traits), and Quiet by Susan Cain (on introversion).

Most of the real geniuses I’ve known are not neurotypical. Especially in evolutionary game theory. They would have a lot of trouble comprehending or following typical university speech codes. I suspect this would have been true for most of the brilliant thinkers who built civilization over the last several millennia. Consider just a few geniuses who seem, given biographical records, to have been on the autism/Asperger’s spectrum: Béla Bartók, Jeremy Bentham, Lewis Carroll, Marie Curie, Charles Darwin, Emily Dickinson, Albert Einstein, Sir Ronald Fisher, Sir Francis Galton, Glenn Gould, Patricia Highsmith, Alfred Hitchcock, Alfred Kinsey, Stanley Kubrick, Barbara McClintock, Gregor Mendel, Bertrand Russell, Nikola Tesla, Mark Twain, Alan Turing, H. G. Wells, and Ludwig Wittgenstein. (Aspies like me enjoy making lists; also see this resource.) Moreover, the world’s richest tech billionaires often show some Asperger-like traits: think Paul Allen, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Larry Page, Peter Thiel, and Mark Zuckerberg. And in movies and TV, outspoken, insensitive aspies are no longer just ‘mad scientist’ side-kicks, but heroic protagonists such as Tony Stark, Sherlock Holmes, Gregory House, Lisbeth Salander, and Dr. Strange.

On the upside, the civilizational contributions from the neurodivergent have been formidable – and often decisive in science and technology. On the downside, Asberger’s traits seem common among academics who have suffered the worst public outrages against things they’ve said and done, that weren’t intended to be offensive at all.

The varieties of neurodiversity

Restrictive speech norms are a problem for people on the autism spectrum, which includes about 1% of the general public, but which is a much higher proportion of academics in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM fields) – like Sheldon Cooper, a Caltech physicist on the TV show The Big Bang Theory. Apart from the autism spectrum, a much larger proportion of students, staff, and faculty at any university have other neurological disorders, mental illnesses, or personality quirks that make it hard to avoid ‘offensive’ speech all of the time – even if they’re ‘high functioning’ and have no trouble doing their academic work. For example, speech codes make no allowance for these conditions:

  • Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder(ADHD) (3%) imposes high impulsivity and a tendency to blurt out inappropriate comments;
  • Tourette syndrome(1%) can include irresistible compulsions to say obscene or derogatory things;
  • Social (pragmatic) communication disorder(a newly recognized disorder, prevalence unknown) impairs abilities to use language ‘appropriately’, to match communication styles to different contexts and listeners, and to read between the lines given subtle or ambiguous language;
  • PTSD(8% prevalence) increases sensitivity to reminders of past trauma (‘triggers’), which can provoke reactive anger, verbal aggression, and offensive speech;
  • Bipolar disorder(4%) can trigger manic phases in which beliefs become more eccentric, and speech and sexual behavior become less inhibited;
  • Schizophreniaspectrum disorders (5% prevalence) often lead to unusual communication styles, social awkwardness, and eccentric views that fall outside the Overton window;
  • Paranoid, schizoid, and schizotypal (‘Cluster A’) personality disorders (4% prevalence) involve social awkwardness, eccentric behaviors, and odd speech patterns, which can come across as insensitive or offensive;
  • Histrionic, narcissistic, borderline, and antisocial (‘Cluster B’) personality disorders (2% prevalence) involve impulsivity, attention-seeking, emotional instability and/or lack of empathy, which result in speech and behavior that often violates social norms.

Some of the prevalence estimates are imprecise, and many people have more than one of these disorders. But together, mental disorders like these affect at least 20% of students, staff, and faculty. That’s higher than the percentage of American college students who are Hispanic (17%), Black (14%), LGBTQ+ (7%), or undocumented immigrants (5%). And for many of these mental disorders, symptom severity peaks at the ages of typical college students: universities are demanding that the neurodivergent inhibit their speech most carefully when they are least able to do so.

Apart from diagnosable mental disorders such as Asperger’s, a substantial minority of people on any campus are on the extremes of the Big Five personality traits, which all have implications for speech code behavior. Low Conscientiousness predicts impulsive, reckless, or short-sighted speech and behavior – i.e. being more likely to violate speech codes. Low Agreeableness predicts being ornery, offensive, and disagreeable – i.e. violating speech codes. High Openness predicts adopting unusual beliefs and eccentric behaviors – i.e. violating speech codes. High Extraversion predicts being hyper-social, hyper-sexual, and hyper-verbal – i.e. especially violating codes about sexual behavior and speech. Since the Big Five traits all show substantial heritability, any speech code that can’t realistically be followed by people who score at an extreme on these Big Five traits, is basically punishing them for the genes they happened to inherit.

Beyond mental disorders and personality quirks, many people on campuses at any given time are in states of ‘transient neurodiversity’ – altered psychological states due to low blood sugar, life stressors, medication side-effects, or ‘smart drugs’ such as caffeine, Ritalin, Adderall, or Modafinil. Also, sleep disorders affect over 20% of people, and the resulting sleep deprivation reduces inhibition. These kinds of transient neurodiversity can also interfere with social sensitivity, Theory of Mind, and verbal inhibition, so can reduce the ability to comply with speech codes. Unless universities want to outlaw fatigue, hunger, heartbreak, meds and coffee it’s hard to maintain the delusion that everyone’s speech will be 100% inoffensive 100% of the time.

How neurodiversity makes it hard to understand speech codes

Since speech codes are written by the neurotypical for the neurotypical, the neurodivergent often find them literally incomprehensible, and it’s impossible to follow a rule that doesn’t make sense. For example, a typical set of ‘respectful campus’, ‘sexual misconduct’, and ‘anti-harassment’ policies prohibits:

  • ‘unwelcome verbal behavior’
  • ‘unwelcome jokes about a protected characteristic’
  • ‘hate or bias acts that violate our sense of community’
  • ‘sexist comments’
  • ‘degrading pictorial material’
  • ‘displaying objectionable objects’
  • ‘negative posters about a protected characteristic’

These quotes are from my university’s recent policies, but they’re pretty standard. I don’t understand what any of these phrases actually allow or prohibit, and I worked on free speech issues in our Faculty Senate for two years, and in our Sexual Misconduct Policy Committee for one year, so I’ve puzzled over them for some time.

Lacking good Theory of Mind, how could a person with Asperger’s anticipate which speech acts would be ‘unwelcome’ to a stranger, or might be considered ‘sexist’ or ‘sexually suggestive’? Lacking a good understanding of social norms, how could they anticipate what counts as a ‘hate act that violates our sense of community’, or what counts as an ‘objectionable object’? Lacking a good understanding of current civil rights legalese, how could any 18-year-old Freshman – neurotypical or not – understand what a ‘protected characteristic’ is?

The language of campus speech codes is designed to give the illusion of precision, while remaining so vague that they can be enforced however administrators want to enforce them, whenever personal complaints, student protests, lawsuits, or adverse publicity make it expedient to punish someone for being ‘offensive’. So, students, staff, and faculty are expected to be able to ‘read between the lines’ of speech codes to understand what is actually forbidden versus what is actually permitted.

But people differ in their ability to understand spoken and written language, including the dry intricacies of administrative policies, the ever-changing euphemisms of PC culture, and the double standards of Leftist identity politics. Deciphering speech codes requires high levels of verbal, social, and emotional intelligence to discern the real meaning behind vague euphemisms and social justice shibboleths, and the neurodivergent may not have the kinds of brains that can make those kinds of inferences.

Speech codes are also intentionally vague so that anyone who’s upset by someone else’s speech can make a complaint, with the subjective feelings of the listener as the arbiter of whether an offense has occurred. In most campus speech codes, there is no ‘reasonable person’ standard for what speech counts as offensive. This means that even if an aspie or schizotypal person develops an accurate mental model of how an average person would respond to a possible speech act, they can’t rely on that. They’re expected to make their speech inoffensive to the most sensitive person they might ever encounter on campus. The result is the ‘coddling culture’ in which administrators prioritize the alleged vulnerabilities of listeners over the communication rights of speakers. In fact, the only lip service given to neurodiversity in campus speech codes is in the (false) assumption that ‘trigger warnings’ and prohibitions against ‘microaggressions’ will be useful in protecting listeners with PTSD or high neuroticism. Administrators assume that the most vulnerable ‘snowflakes’ are always listeners, and never speakers. They even fail to understand that when someone with PTSD is ‘triggered’ by a situation, they might say something in response that someone else finds ‘offensive’.

Systematizing versus empathizing

Autism spectrum disorders are central to the tension between campus censorship and neurodiversity. This is because there’s a trade-off between ‘systematizing’ and ‘empathizing’. Systematizing is the drive to construct and analyze abstract systems of rules, evidence, and procedures; it’s stronger in males, in people with autism/Asperger’s, and in STEM fields. Empathizing is the ability to understand other people’s thoughts and feelings, and to respond with ‘appropriate’ emotions and speech acts; it’s stronger in females, in people with schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and in the arts and humanities. Conservative satirists often mock ‘social justice warriors’ for their ‘autistic screeching’, but Leftist student protesters are more likely to be high empathizers from the arts, humanities, and social sciences, than high systematizers from the hard sciences or engineering.

Consider the Empathy Quotient (EQ) scale, developed by autism researcher Simon Baron-Cohen to measure empathizing versus systematizing. Positively-scored items that predict higher empathy include:

  • ‘I am good at predicting how someone will feel.’
  • ‘I find it easy to put myself in somebody else’s shoes.’
  • ‘I can tune into how someone else feels rapidly and intuitively.’
  • ‘I can usually appreciate the other person’s viewpoint, even if I don’t agree with it.’
  • Negatively-scored items that predict lower empathy include:
  • ‘I often find it difficult to judge if something is rude or polite.’
  • ‘It is hard for me to see why some things upset people so much.’
  • ‘I can’t always see why someone should have felt offended by a remark.’
  • ‘Other people often say that I am insensitive, though I don’t always see why.’

Reading these items, it seems like a higher EQ score would strongly predict ability to follow campus speech codes that prohibit causing offense to others. People on the autism spectrum, such as those with Asperger’s, score much lower on the EQ scale. (Full disclosure: I score 14 out of 80.) Thus, aspies simply don’t have brains that can anticipate what might be considered offensive, disrespectful, unwanted, or outrageous by others – regardless of what campus speech codes expect of us. From a high systematizer’s perspective, most ‘respectful campus’ speech codes are basically demands that they should turn into a high empathizer through sheer force of will. Men also score lower on the EQ scale than women, and Asperger’s is 11 times more common in men, so speech codes also impose ‘disparate impact’ on males, a form of sex discrimination that is illegal under federal law.

The ways that speech codes discriminate against systematizers is exacerbated by their vagueness, overbreadth, unsystematic structure, double standards, and logical inconsistencies – which drive systematizers nuts. For example, most speech codes prohibit any insults based on a person’s sex, race, religion, or political attitudes. But aspie students often notice that these codes are applied very selectively: it’s OK to insult ‘toxic masculinity’ and ‘patriarchy’, but not to question the ‘wage gap’ or ‘rape culture’; it’s OK to insult ‘white privilege’ and the ‘Alt-Right’ but not affirmative action or ‘Black Lives Matter’; it’s OK to insult pro-life Catholics but not pro-sharia Muslims. The concept of ‘unwelcome’ jokes or ‘unwelcome’ sexual comments seems like a time-travel paradox to aspies – how can you judge what speech act is ‘unwelcome’ until after you get the feedback about whether it was welcome?

Even worse, most campus speech codes are associated with social justice theories of gender feminism, critical race theory, and social constructivism, which reject the best-established scientific findings about sex differences, race differences, and behavior genetics. Requiring aspies to buy into speech codes based on blatant falsehoods violates our deepest systematizer values of logic, rationality, and realism. For an example of a systematizer’s exasperation about unprincipled speech codes, see this letter by a Cornell student with high-functioning autism.

To test my intuitions about these issues, I ran an informal poll of my Twitter followers, asking ‘Which condition would make it hardest to follow a college speech code that prohibits all ‘offensive’ or ‘disrespectful’ statements?’. There were 655 votes across four response options: 54% for ‘Asperger’s’, 19% for ‘Schizophrenia’, 14% for ‘Bipolar’, and 13% for ‘ADHD’. The results of this one-item survey, from a small sample of my eccentric followers, should not be taken seriously as any kind of scientific research. They simply show I’m not the only person who thinks that Asperger’s would make it hard to follow campus speech codes.

In fact, to many STEM students and faculty, empathizers seem to have forged campus speech codes into weapons for aspie-shaming. In a world where nerds like Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk are the most powerful innovators, speech codes seem like the revenge of the anti-nerds.

How speech codes impose disparate impact on neurominorities

When a policy is formally neutral, but it adversely affects one legally protected group of people more than other people, that’s called ‘disparate impact’, and it’s illegal. People with diagnosed mental disorders qualify as ‘disabled’ people under the 1990 Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) and other federal laws, so any speech code at a public university that imposes disparate impact on neurominorities is illegal.

What is the disparate impact here? Given restrictive speech codes and speech norms, neurodivergent people know that at any time, they might say something ‘offensive’ that could lead to expulsion, firing, or denial of tenure. They live in fear. They feel a chilling effect on their speech and behavior. They learn to self-censor.

Consider how speech codes can feel wretchedly discriminatory to neurominorities:

  • Imagine you’re a grad student in the social sciences and you hear about peers getting into trouble making off-the-cuff remarks when teaching controversial classes, such as Human Sexuality, American History, or Social Psychology. You are deterred from teaching, and drift away into private industry.
  • Imagine you are a man with Asperger’s syndromedoing a science Ph.D. and you see social justice activists destroying nerdy male scientists for their non-PC views, trivial mistakes, or fictional offenses, as in the cases of Matt Tayloror Tim Hunt. You realize you’ll probably make some similar misjudgment sooner or later if you stay in academia, so you leave for a Bay Area tech start-up that’s more forgiving of social gaffes.
  • Imagine you’re an anthropology professor with Asperger’s, so you can’t anticipate whether people will find your jokes hilarious or offensive until you tell them. But you get better student course evaluations when you try to be funny. Now your university imposes a new speech code that says, basically, ‘Don’t say anything that people might find offensive’. You need good course evaluations for promotion and tenure, but your brain can’t anticipate your students’ reactions to your quirky sense of humor.
  • Imagine you’re an undergrad, but you have bipolar disorder, so sometimes you get into manic states, when you become more outspoken in classes about your non-PC views on sexual politics.
  • Imagine you’re a university system administrator with Tourette syndrome, so that sometimes in meetings with other IT staff, you can’t help but blurt out words that some consider racially or sexually offensive.

In response to these chilling effects, neurodivergent academics may withdraw from the social and intellectual life of the university. They may avoid lab group meetings, post-colloquium dinners, faculty parties, and conferences, where any tipsy comment, if overheard by anyone with a propensity for moralistic outrage, could threaten their reputation and career. I’ve seen this social withdrawal happen more and more over the last couple of decades. Nerdy, eccentric, and awkward academics who would have been outspoken, hilarious, and joyful in the 1980s are now cautious, somber, and frightened.

This withdrawal from the university’s ‘life of the mind’ is especially heart-breaking to the neurodivergent, who often can’t stand small talk, and whose only real social connections come through vigorous debate about dangerous ideas with their intellectual equals. Speech codes don’t just censor their words; they also decimate their relationships, collaborations, and social networks. Chilling effects on speech can turn an aspie’s social life into a frozen wasteland. The resulting alienation can exacerbate many mental disorders, leading to a downward spiral of self-censorship, loneliness, despair, and failure. Consider political science professor Will Moore: he had high-functioning autism, and was so tired of accidentally offending colleagues that he killed himself this April; his suicide note is here. If being driven to suicide isn’t disparate impact, what is?

There’s an analogy here between neurodiversity and ideological diversity. Campus speech codes have marginalized both over the last couple of decades. American universities are now dominated by progressive Leftistsregistered Democrats, and social justice activists. They are hostile and discriminatory against students, staff, and faculty who are centrist, libertarian, conservative and/or religious. There are real career costs to holding certain political views in academia – even if those views are shared by most Americans. This problem of ideological diversity is already being addressed by great organizations such as the Heterodox Academy and the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education, by online magazines such as Quillette, and by free speech advocates such as Alice Dreger, Jonathan Haidt, Sam Harris, Laura Kipnis, Scott Lilienfeld, Greg Lukianoff, Camille Paglia, Jordan Peterson, Steven Pinker, and Bret Weinstein. By contrast, the neurodiversity problem has not been discussed much, although it might be easier to solve through anti-discrimination lawsuits. In principle, speech codes discriminating against certain ideologies is a form of disparate impact, but at the moment, being a Republican or a Neoreactionary is not a ‘protected class’ under federal anti-discrimination law, whereas having a disability such as a mental disorder is.

Conclusion: What to do about neurodiversity and free speech

Campus speech codes discriminate against neurominorities. They impose unrealistic demands, fears, and stigma on the large proportion of students, staff, and faculty who have common mental disorders, or extremes on the Big Five personality traits, or transient disinhibition due to sleep deprivation or smart drugs. As a practical matter, it is virtually impossible for someone with Asperger’s, bipolar, ADHD, low Agreeableness, low Conscientiousness, extreme fatigue, or Modafinil mania to understand what kinds of speech acts are considered acceptable, and to inhibit the production of such speech 100% of the time, in 100% of educational and social situations.

In a future article, I’ll outline a legal strategy to use the ADA to eliminate campus speech codes that discriminate against neurominorities.

For the moment, just consider this: every campus speech code and restrictive speech norm is a Sword of Damocles dangling above the head of every academic whose brain works a little differently. We feel the sharpness and the weight every day. After every class, meeting, blog, and tweet, we brace for the moral outrage, public shaming, witch hunts, and inquisitions that seem to hit our colleagues so unpredictably and unfairly. Like visitors from a past century or a foreign culture, we don’t understand which concepts are admissible in your Overton window, or which words are acceptable to your ears. We don’t understand your verbal and moral taboos. We can’t make sense of your double standards and logical inconsistencies. We don’t respect your assumption that empathizing should always take precedence over systematizing. Yet we know you have the power to hurt us for things we can’t help. So, we suffer relentless anxiety about our words, our thoughts, our social relationships, our reputations, and our careers.

That era is over. Neurodiversity is finding its voice and its confidence. People with mental disorders and eccentric personalities have rights too, and we will not be intimidated by your stigma and shaming. We will demand our rights under the ADA through the Department of Education, the Department of Justice, and in federal district courts. We will educate administrators about the discriminatory side-effects of their bad policies. We will shatter your Swords of Damocles and raise our freak flags to fly over campuses around the world.

For centuries, academia has been a haven for neurodiversity – a true ‘safe space’ for eccentric thought and language, for thinking the unthinkable and saying the unsayable. We will make it that haven again, and there is nothing that university administrators can do to stop us. Everything is on our side: behavioral science, intellectual history, federal law, public opinion, and liberal academia’s own most sacred values of diversity and inclusivity. Neurodiversity is here to stay, and we will not be silenced any longer.

If the neurodivergent stand up for our free speech rights, campus speech codes will go extinct very quickly. In the future, they will be considered a weird historical curiosity of runaway virtue-signaling in early 21st-century American academia. The freedom to think eccentric thoughts and say eccentric things must be protected again. The freedom to be eccentric must be restored. Newton must be welcomed back to academia.

 

Further resources:
ADA.gov at U.S. Department of Justice
Autistic Self Advocacy Network
Autism Research Centre
Autism Research Institute
Disability Rights Education and Defense Fund
Foundation for Individual Rights in Education
Heterodox Academy
National Alliance for Mental Illness

Acknowledgements: For helpful feedback on earlier drafts, thanks to Jean Carroll, Diana Fleischman, Jonathan Haidt, Claire Lehmann, Greg Lukianoff, and many fine people on Twitter.

 

Geoffrey Miller is a tenured associate professor of psychology at the University of New Mexico, where he’s fought for several years to eliminate speech codes. He is the author of The Mating Mind, Mating Intelligence, Spent, and What Women Want. His research has focused on sexual selection, mate choice, human sexuality, intelligence, humor, creativity, personality traits, evolutionary psychopathology, behavior genetics, consumer behavior, evolutionary aesthetics, research ethics, virtue signaling, and Effective Altruism. He did a podcast called The Mating Grounds; follow him on Twitter @primalpoly.

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Student mistook examples of unsolved math problems for homework, solves them

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CLAIM

A student mistook examples of unsolved statistics problems for a homework assignment and solved them.

TRUE

RATING

TRUE

ORIGIN

A legend about the “unsolvable math problem” combines one of the ultimate academic wish-fulfillment fantasies — a student not only proves himself the smartest one in his class, but also bests his professor and every other scholar in his field of study — with a “positive thinking” motif which turns up in other urban legends: when people are free to pursue goals unfettered by presumed limitations on what they can accomplish, they just may manage some extraordinary feats through the combined application of native talent and hard work:

A young college student was working hard in an upper-level math course, for fear that he would be unable to pass. On the night before the final, he studied so long that he overslept the morning of the test.

When he ran into the classroom several minutes late, he found three equations written on the blackboard. The first two went rather easily, but the third one seemed impossible. He worked frantically on it until — just ten minutes short of the deadline — he found a method that worked, and he finished the problems just as time was called.

The student turned in his test paper and left. That evening he received a phone call from his professor. “Do you realize what you did on the test today?” he shouted at the student.

“Oh, no,” thought the student. I must not have gotten the problems right after all.

“You were only supposed to do the first two problems,” the professor explained. “That last one was an example of an equation that mathematicians since Einstein have been trying to solve without success. I discussed it with the class before starting the test. And you just solved it!”

And this particular version is all the more interesting for being based on a real-life incident!

One day In 1939, George Bernard Dantzig, a doctoral candidate at the University of California, Berkeley, arrived late for a graduate-level statistics class and found two problems written on the board. Not knowing they were examples of “unsolved” statistics problems, he mistook them for part of a homework assignment, jotted them down, and solved them. (The equations Dantzig tackled are more accurately described not as unsolvable problems, but rather as unproven statistical theorems for which he worked out proofs.)

Six weeks later, Dantzig’s statistic professor notified him that he had prepared one of his two “homework” proofs for publication, and Dantzig was given co-author credit on another paper several years later when another mathematician independently worked out the same solution to the second problem.

George Dantzig recounted his feat in a 1986 interview for the College Mathematics Journal:

It happened because during my first year at Berkeley I arrived late one day at one of [Jerzy] Neyman’s classes. On the blackboard there were two problems that I assumed had been assigned for homework. I copied them down. A few days later I apologized to Neyman for taking so long to do the homework — the problems seemed to be a little harder than usual. I asked him if he still wanted it. He told me to throw it on his desk. I did so reluctantly because his desk was covered with such a heap of papers that I feared my homework would be lost there forever. About six weeks later, one Sunday morning about eight o’clock, [my wife] Anne and I were awakened by someone banging on our front door. It was Neyman. He rushed in with papers in hand, all excited: “I’ve just written an introduction to one of your papers. Read it so I can send it out right away for publication.” For a minute I had no idea what he was talking about. To make a long story short, the problems on the blackboard that I had solved thinking they were homework were in fact two famous unsolved problems in statistics. That was the first inkling I had that there was anything special about them.

A year later, when I began to worry about a thesis topic, Neyman just shrugged and told me to wrap the two problems in a binder and he would accept them as my thesis.

The second of the two problems, however, was not published until after World War II. It happened this way. Around 1950 I received a letter from Abraham Wald enclosing the final galley proofs of a paper of his about to go to press in the Annals of Mathematical Statistics. Someone had just pointed out to him that the main result in his paper was the same as the second “homework” problem solved in my thesis. I wrote back suggesting we publish jointly. He simply inserted my name as coauthor into the galley proof.

Dr. Dantzig also explained how his story passed into the realm of urban legendry:

The other day, as I was taking an early morning walk, I was hailed by Don Knuth as he rode by on his bicycle. He is a colleague at Stanford. He stopped and said, “Hey, George — I was visiting in Indiana recently and heard a sermon about you in church. Do you know that you are an influence on Christians of middle America?” I looked at him, amazed. “After the sermon,” he went on, “the minister came over and asked me if I knew a George Dantzig at Stanford, because that was the name of the person his sermon was about.”

The origin of that minister’s sermon can be traced to another Lutheran minister, the Reverend Schuler [sic] of the Crystal Cathedral in Los Angeles. He told me his ideas about thinking positively, and I told him my story about the homework problems and my thesis. A few months later I received a letter from him asking permission to include my story in a book he was writing on the power of positive thinking. Schuler’s published version was a bit garbled and exaggerated but essentially correct. The moral of his sermon was this: If I had known that the problem were not homework but were in fact two famous unsolved problems in statistics, I probably would not have thought positively, would have become discouraged, and would never have solved them.

The version of Dantzig’s story published by Christian televangelist Robert Schuller contained a good deal of embellishment and misinformation which has since been propagated in urban legend-like forms of the tale such as the one quoted at the head of this page: Schuller converted the mistaken homework assignment into a “final exam” with ten problems (eight of which were real and two of which were “unsolvable”), claimed that “even Einstein was unable to unlock the secrets” of the two extra problems, and erroneously stated that Dantzig’s professor was so impressed that he “gave Dantzig a job as his assistant, and Dantzig has been at Stanford ever since.”

George Dantzig (himself the son of a mathematician) received a Bachelor’s degree from University of Maryland in 1936 and a Master’s from the University of Michigan in 1937 before completing his Doctorate (interrupted by World War II) at UC Berkeley in 1946. He later worked for the Air Force, took a position with the RAND Corporation as a research mathematician in 1952, became professor of operations research at Berkeley in 1960, and joined the faculty of Stanford University in 1966, where he taught and published as a professor of operations research until the 1990s. In 1975, Dr. Dantzig was awarded the National Medal of Science by President Gerald Ford.

George Dantzig passed away at his Stanford home at age 90 on 13 May 2005.

Sightings:   This legend is used as the setup of the plot in the 1997 movie Good Will Hunting. As well, one of the early scenes in the 1999 film Rushmore shows the main character daydreaming about solving the impossible question and winning approbation from all.

Sources:

Albers, Donald J. and Constance Reid.   “An Interview of George B. Dantzig: The Father of Linear Programming.”
    College Mathematics Journal.   Volume 17, Number 4; 1986   (pp. 293-314).

Brunvand, Jan Harold.   Curses! Broiled Again!
    New York: W. W. Norton, 1989.   ISBN 0-393-30711-5   (pp. 278-283).

Dantzig, George B.     “On the Non-Existence of Tests of ‘Student’s’ Hypothesis Having Power Functions Independent of Sigma.”
    Annals of Mathematical Statistics.   No. 11; 1940   (pp. 186-192).

Dantzig, George B. and Abraham Wald.   “On the Fundamental Lemma of Neyman and Pearson.”
    Annals of Mathematical Statistics.   No. 22; 1951   (pp. 87-93).

Pearce, Jeremy.   “George B. Dantzig Dies at 90.”
    The New York Times.   23 May 2005.



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The first trailer for Philip K. Dick anthology series promises surreal sci-fi

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Philip K. Dick is responsible for some of science fiction’s most iconic movies, such as Blade Runner, Minority Report, and Total Recall, and some of his short stories will be the basis for a new anthology show called Philip K. Dick’s Electric Dreams. The first trailer for the show has arrived, and it looks like it’s going to be just as weird as the stories it’s based on.

Philip K. Dick’s Electric Dreams will consist of ten episodes, each of which will be based off of a selection of the author’s short stories. The show will star an array of recognizable actors, such as Benedict Wong, Steve Buscemi, Anna Paquin, Terrance Howard, and Cranston himself. This first trailer promises a really surreal sci-fi series. There’s empty cities, pig men, creepy children in a forest, robots, and quite a bit more.

Philip K. Dick was a prolific and paranoid storyteller

Dick earned a reputation as a prolific storyteller who often explored themes of authority, alternate universes, and the uncertain state of reality, and this show looks like it really captures the spirit of those stories. The trailer shows off characters who discover that their parents are aliens, realize they have lost memories, and or that there are alternate worlds. The show also appears to nicely follow Channel 4’s other science fiction anthology show, Black Mirror, which ended up moving to Netflix in 2015. Amazon is also home to another Philip K. Dick adaptation, The Man in the High Castle, about an alternate world in which the Allies lost World War II.

Sony Pictures and the UK’s Channel 4 announced last year that they were teaming up to create the show, with Breaking Bad’s Bryan Cranston, Justified’s Michael Dinner, and Battlestar Galactica’s Ronald D. Moore producing. The show will be distributed in the United States by Amazon Video, but interestingly, our first look at the show comes not from Amazon, but from Australian streaming company Stan.

There’s no indication when the show will be released for US, European, or Australian audiences, other than “soon.”



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The Irrationality of Alcoholics Anonymous (2015)

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J.G. is a lawyer in his early 30s. He’s a fast talker and has the lean, sinewy build of a distance runner. His choice of profession seems preordained, as he speaks in fully formed paragraphs, his thoughts organized by topic sentences. He’s also a worrier—a big one—who for years used alcohol to soothe his anxiety.

J.G. started drinking at 15, when he and a friend experimented in his parents’ liquor cabinet. He favored gin and whiskey but drank whatever he thought his parents would miss the least. He discovered beer, too, and loved the earthy, bitter taste on his tongue when he took his first cold sip.

His drinking increased through college and into law school. He could, and occasionally did, pull back, going cold turkey for weeks at a time. But nothing quieted his anxious mind like booze, and when he didn’t drink, he didn’t sleep. After four or six weeks dry, he’d be back at the liquor store.

By the time he was a practicing defense attorney, J.G. (who asked to be identified only by his initials) sometimes drank almost a liter of Jameson in a day. He often started drinking after his first morning court appearance, and he says he would have loved to drink even more, had his schedule allowed it. He defended clients who had been charged with driving while intoxicated, and he bought his own Breathalyzer to avoid landing in court on drunk-driving charges himself.

In the spring of 2012, J.G. decided to seek help. He lived in Minnesota—the Land of 10,000 Rehabs, people there like to say—and he knew what to do: check himself into a facility. He spent a month at a center where the treatment consisted of little more than attending Alcoholics Anonymous meetings. He tried to dedicate himself to the program even though, as an atheist, he was put off by the faith-based approach of the 12 steps, five of which mention God. Everyone there warned him that he had a chronic, progressive disease and that if he listened to the cunning internal whisper promising that he could have just one drink, he would be off on a bender.

J.G. says it was this message—that there were no small missteps, and one drink might as well be 100—that set him on a cycle of bingeing and abstinence. He went back to rehab once more and later sought help at an outpatient center. Each time he got sober, he’d spend months white-knuckling his days in court and his nights at home. Evening would fall and his heart would race as he thought ahead to another sleepless night. “So I’d have one drink,” he says, “and the first thing on my mind was: I feel better now, but I’m screwed. I’m going right back to where I was. I might as well drink as much as I possibly can for the next three days.”

He felt utterly defeated. And according to AA doctrine, the failure was his alone. When the 12 steps don’t work for someone like J.G., Alcoholics Anonymous says that person must be deeply flawed. The Big Book, AA’s bible, states:

Rarely have we seen a person fail who has thoroughly followed our path. Those who do not recover are people who cannot or will not completely give themselves to this simple program, usually men and women who are constitutionally incapable of being honest with themselves. There are such unfortunates. They are not at fault; they seem to have been born that way.

J.G.’s despair was only heightened by his seeming lack of options. “Every person I spoke with told me there was no other way,” he says.

The 12 steps are so deeply ingrained in the United States that many people, including doctors and therapists, believe attending meetings, earning one’s sobriety chips, and never taking another sip of alcohol is the only way to get better. Hospitals, outpatient clinics, and rehab centers use the 12 steps as the basis for treatment. But although few people seem to realize it, there are alternatives, including prescription drugs and therapies that aim to help patients learn to drink in moderation. Unlike Alcoholics Anonymous, these methods are based on modern science and have been proved, in randomized, controlled studies, to work.

For J.G., it took years of trying to “work the program,” pulling himself back onto the wagon only to fall off again, before he finally realized that Alcoholics Anonymous was not his only, or even his best, hope for recovery. But in a sense, he was lucky: many others never make that discovery at all.

The debate over the efficacy of 12-step programs has been quietly bubbling for decades among addiction specialists. But it has taken on new urgency with the passage of the Affordable Care Act, which requires all insurers and state Medicaid programs to pay for alcohol- and substance-abuse treatment, extending coverage to 32 million Americans who did not previously have it and providing a higher level of coverage for an additional 30 million.

Nowhere in the field of medicine is treatment less grounded in modern science. A 2012 report by the National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse at Columbia University compared the current state of addiction medicine to general medicine in the early 1900s, when quacks worked alongside graduates of leading medical schools. The American Medical Association estimates that out of nearly 1 million doctors in the United States, only 582 identify themselves as addiction specialists. (The Columbia report notes that there may be additional doctors who have a subspecialty in addiction.) Most treatment providers carry the credential of addiction counselor or substance-abuse counselor, for which many states require little more than a high-school diploma or a GED. Many counselors are in recovery themselves. The report stated: “The vast majority of people in need of addiction treatment do not receive anything that approximates evidence-based care.”

Alcoholics Anonymous was established in 1935, when knowledge of the brain was in its infancy. It offers a single path to recovery: lifelong abstinence from alcohol. The program instructs members to surrender their ego, accept that they are “powerless” over booze, make amends to those they’ve wronged, and pray.

Alcoholics Anonymous is famously difficult to study. By necessity, it keeps no records of who attends meetings; members come and go and are, of course, anonymous. No conclusive data exist on how well it works. In 2006, the Cochrane Collaboration, a health-care research group, reviewed studies going back to the 1960s and found that “no experimental studies unequivocally demonstrated the effectiveness of AA or [12-step] approaches for reducing alcohol dependence or problems.”

The Big Book includes an assertion first made in the second edition, which was published in 1955: that AA has worked for 75 percent of people who have gone to meetings and “really tried.” It says that 50 percent got sober right away, and another 25 percent struggled for a while but eventually recovered. According to AA, these figures are based on members’ experiences.

In his recent book, The Sober Truth: Debunking the Bad Science Behind 12-Step Programs and the Rehab Industry, Lance Dodes, a retired psychiatry professor from Harvard Medical School, looked at Alcoholics Anonymous’s retention rates along with studies on sobriety and rates of active involvement (attending meetings regularly and working the program) among AA members. Based on these data, he put AA’s actual success rate somewhere between 5 and 8 percent. That is just a rough estimate, but it’s the most precise one I’ve been able to find.

I spent three years researching a book about women and alcohol, Her Best-Kept Secret: Why Women Drink—And How They Can Regain Control, which was published in 2013. During that time, I encountered disbelief from doctors and psychiatrists every time I mentioned that the Alcoholics Anonymous success rate appears to hover in the single digits. We’ve grown so accustomed to testimonials from those who say AA saved their life that we take the program’s efficacy as an article of faith. Rarely do we hear from those for whom 12-step treatment doesn’t work. But think about it: How many celebrities can you name who bounced in and out of rehab without ever getting better? Why do we assume they failed the program, rather than that the program failed them?

When my book came out, dozens of Alcoholics Anonymous members said that because I had challenged AA’s claim of a 75 percent success rate, I would hurt or even kill people by discouraging attendance at meetings. A few insisted that I must be an “alcoholic in denial.” But most of the people I heard from were desperate to tell me about their experiences in the American treatment industry. Amy Lee Coy, the author of the memoir From Death Do I Part: How I Freed Myself From Addiction, told me about her eight trips to rehab, starting at age 13. “It’s like getting the same antibiotic for a resistant infection—eight times,” she told me. “Does that make sense?”

“I honestly thought AA was the only way anyone could ever get sober, but I learned that I was wrong.”

She and countless others had put their faith in a system they had been led to believe was effective—even though finding treatment centers’ success rates is next to impossible: facilities rarely publish their data or even track their patients after discharging them. “Many will tell you that those who complete the program have a ‘great success rate,’ meaning that most are abstaining from drugs and alcohol while enrolled there,” says Bankole Johnson, an alcohol researcher and the chair of the psychiatry department at the University of Maryland School of Medicine. “Well, no kidding.”

Alcoholics Anonymous has more than 2 million members worldwide, and the structure and support it offers have helped many people. But it is not enough for everyone. The history of AA is the story of how one approach to treatment took root before other options existed, inscribing itself on the national consciousness and crowding out dozens of newer methods that have since been shown to work better.

A meticulous analysis of treatments, published more than a decade ago in The Handbook of Alcoholism Treatment Approaches but still considered one of the most comprehensive comparisons, ranks AA 38th out of 48 methods. At the top of the list are brief interventions by a medical professional; motivational enhancement, a form of counseling that aims to help people see the need to change; and acamprosate, a drug that eases cravings. (An oft-cited 1996 study found 12-step facilitation—a form of individual therapy that aims to get the patient to attend AA meetings—as effective as cognitive behavioral therapy and motivational interviewing. But that study, called Project Match, was widely criticized for scientific failings, including the lack of a control group.)

As an organization, Alcoholics Anonymous has no real central authority—each AA meeting functions more or less autonomously—and it declines to take positions on issues beyond the scope of the 12 steps. (When I asked to speak with someone from the General Service Office, AA’s administrative headquarters, regarding AA’s stance on other treatment methods, I received an e-mail stating: “Alcoholics Anonymous neither endorses nor opposes other approaches, and we cooperate widely with the medical profession.” The office also declined to comment on whether AA’s efficacy has been proved.) But many in AA and the rehab industry insist the 12 steps are the only answer and frown on using the prescription drugs that have been shown to help people reduce their drinking.

People with alcohol problems also suffer from higher-than-normal rates of mental-health issues, and research has shown that treating depression and anxiety with medication can reduce drinking. But AA is not equipped to address these issues—it is a support group whose leaders lack professional training—and some meetings are more accepting than others of the idea that members may need therapy and/or medication in addition to the group’s help.

AA truisms have so infiltrated our culture that many people believe heavy drinkers cannot recover before they “hit bottom.” Researchers I’ve talked with say that’s akin to offering antidepressants only to those who have attempted suicide, or prescribing insulin only after a patient has lapsed into a diabetic coma. “You might as well tell a guy who weighs 250 pounds and has untreated hypertension and cholesterol of 300, ‘Don’t exercise, keep eating fast food, and we’ll give you a triple bypass when you have a heart attack,’ ” Mark Willenbring, a psychiatrist in St. Paul and a former director of treatment and recovery research at the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, told me. He threw up his hands. “Absurd.”

Part of the problem is our one-size-fits-all approach. Alcoholics Anonymous was originally intended for chronic, severe drinkers—those who may, indeed, be powerless over alcohol—but its program has since been applied much more broadly. Today, for instance, judges routinely require people to attend meetings after a DUI arrest; fully 12 percent of AA members are there by court order.

Whereas AA teaches that alcoholism is a progressive disease that follows an inevitable trajectory, data from a federally funded survey called the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions show that nearly one-fifth of those who have had alcohol dependence go on to drink at low-risk levels with no symptoms of abuse. And a recent survey of nearly 140,000 adults by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that nine out of 10 heavy drinkers are not dependent on alcohol and, with the help of a medical professional’s brief intervention, can change unhealthy habits.

We once thought about drinking problems in binary terms—you either had control or you didn’t; you were an alcoholic or you weren’t—but experts now describe a spectrum. An estimated 18 million Americans suffer from alcohol-use disorder, as the DSM-5, the latest edition of the American Psychiatric Association’s diagnostic manual, calls it. (The new term replaces the older alcohol abuse and the much more dated alcoholism, which has been out of favor with researchers for decades.) Only about 15 percent of those with alcohol-use disorder are at the severe end of the spectrum. The rest fall somewhere in the mild-to-moderate range, but they have been largely ignored by researchers and clinicians. Both groups—the hard-core abusers and the more moderate overdrinkers—need more-individualized treatment options.

“We cling to this one-size-fits-all theory even when a person has a small problem.”

The United States already spends about $35 billion a year on alcohol- and substance-abuse treatment, yet heavy drinking causes 88,000 deaths a year—including deaths from car accidents and diseases linked to alcohol. It also costs the country hundreds of billions of dollars in expenses related to health care, criminal justice, motor-vehicle crashes, and lost workplace productivity, according to the CDC. With the Affordable Care Act’s expansion of coverage, it’s time to ask some important questions: Which treatments should we be willing to pay for? Have they been proved effective? And for whom—only those at the extreme end of the spectrum? Or also those in the vast, long-overlooked middle?

For a glimpse of how treatment works elsewhere, I traveled to Finland, a country that shares with the United States a history of prohibition (inspired by the American temperance movement, the Finns outlawed alcohol from 1919 to 1932) and a culture of heavy drinking.

Finland’s treatment model is based in large part on the work of an American neuroscientist named John David Sinclair. I met with Sinclair in Helsinki in early July. He was battling late-stage prostate cancer, and his thick white hair was cropped short in preparation for chemotherapy. Sinclair has researched alcohol’s effects on the brain since his days as an undergraduate at the University of Cincinnati, where he experimented with rats that had been given alcohol for an extended period. Sinclair expected that after several weeks without booze, the rats would lose their desire for it. Instead, when he gave them alcohol again, they went on week-long benders, drinking far more than they ever had before—more, he says, than any rat had ever been shown to drink.

Sinclair called this the alcohol-deprivation effect, and his laboratory results, which have since been confirmed by many other studies, suggested a fundamental flaw in abstinence-based treatment: going cold turkey only intensifies cravings. This discovery helped explain why relapses are common. Sinclair published his findings in a handful of journals and in the early 1970s moved to Finland, drawn by the chance to work in what he considered the best alcohol-research lab in the world, complete with special rats that had been bred to prefer alcohol to water. He spent the next decade researching alcohol and the brain.

Sinclair came to believe that people develop drinking problems through a chemical process: each time they drink, the endorphins released in the brain strengthen certain synapses. The stronger these synapses grow, the more likely the person is to think about, and eventually crave, alcohol—until almost anything can trigger a thirst for booze, and drinking becomes compulsive.

Sinclair theorized that if you could stop the endorphins from reaching their target, the brain’s opiate receptors, you could gradually weaken the synapses, and the cravings would subside. To test this hypothesis, he administered opioid antagonists—drugs that block opiate receptors—to the specially bred alcohol-loving rats. He found that if the rats took the medication each time they were given alcohol, they gradually drank less and less. He published his findings in peer-reviewed journals beginning in the 1980s.

Subsequent studies found that an opioid antagonist called naltrexone was safe and effective for humans, and Sinclair began working with clinicians in Finland. He suggested prescribing naltrexone for patients to take an hour before drinking. As their cravings subsided, they could then learn to control their consumption. Numerous clinical trials have confirmed that the method is effective, and in 2001 Sinclair published a paper in the journal Alcohol and Alcoholism reporting a 78 percent success rate in helping patients reduce their drinking to about 10 drinks a week. Some stopped drinking entirely.

I visited one of three private treatment centers, called the Contral Clinics, that Sinclair co-founded in Finland. (There’s an additional one in Spain.) In the past 18 years, more than 5,000 Finns have gone to the Contral Clinics for help with a drinking problem. Seventy-five percent of them have had success reducing their consumption to a safe level.

The Finns are famously private, so I had to go early in the morning, before any patients arrived, to meet Jukka Keski-Pukkila, the CEO. He poured coffee and showed me around the clinic, in downtown Helsinki. The most common course of treatment involves six months of cognitive behavioral therapy, a goal-oriented form of therapy, with a clinical psychologist. Treatment typically also includes a physical exam, blood work, and a prescription for naltrexone or nalmefene, a newer opioid antagonist approved in more than two dozen countries. When I asked how much all of this cost, Keski-Pukkila looked uneasy. “Well,” he told me, “it’s 2,000 euros.” That’s about $2,500—a fraction of the cost of inpatient rehab in the United States, which routinely runs in the tens of thousands of dollars for a 28-day stay.

When I told Keski-Pukkila this, his eyes grew wide. “What are they doing for that money?” he asked. I listed some of the treatments offered at top-of-the-line rehab centers: equine therapy, art therapy, mindfulness mazes in the desert. “That doesn’t sound scientific,” he said, perplexed. I didn’t mention that some bare-bones facilities charge as much as $40,000 a month and offer no treatment beyond AA sessions led by minimally qualified counselors.

As I researched this article, I wondered what it would be like to try naltrexone, which the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved for alcohol-abuse treatment in 1994. I asked my doctor whether he would write me a prescription. Not surprisingly, he shook his head no. I don’t have a drinking problem, and he said he couldn’t offer medication for an “experiment.” So that left the Internet, which was easy enough. I ordered some naltrexone online and received a foil-wrapped package of 10 pills about a week later. The cost was $39.

Dan Saelinger

The first night, I took a pill at 6:30. An hour later, I sipped a glass of wine and felt almost nothing—no calming effect, none of the warm contentment that usually signals the end of my workday and the beginning of a relaxing evening. I finished the glass and poured a second. By the end of dinner, I looked up to see that I had barely touched it. I had never found wine so uninteresting. Was this a placebo effect? Possibly. But so it went. On the third night, at a restaurant where my husband and I split a bottle of wine, the waitress came to refill his glass twice; mine, not once. That had never happened before, except when I was pregnant. At the end of 10 days, I found I no longer looked forward to a glass of wine with dinner. (Interestingly, I also found myself feeling full much quicker than normal, and I lost two pounds. In Europe, an opioid antagonist is being tested on binge eaters.)

I was an n of one, of course. My experiment was driven by personal curiosity, not scientific inquiry. But it certainly felt as if I were unlearning something—the pleasure of that first glass? The desire for it? Both? I can’t really say.

Patients on naltrexone have to be motivated to keep taking the pill. But Sari Castrén, a psychologist at the Contral Clinic I visited in Helsinki, told me that when patients come in for treatment, they’re desperate to change the role alcohol has assumed in their lives. They’ve tried not drinking, and controlling their drinking, without success—their cravings are too strong. But with naltrexone or nalmefene, they’re able to drink less, and the benefits soon become apparent: They sleep better. They have more energy and less guilt. They feel proud. They’re able to read or watch movies or play with their children during the time they would have been drinking.

In therapy sessions, Castrén asks patients to weigh the pleasure of drinking against their enjoyment of these new activities, helping them to see the value of change. Still, the combination of naltrexone and therapy doesn’t work for everyone. Some clients opt to take Antabuse, a medication that triggers nausea, dizziness, and other uncomfortable reactions when combined with drinking. And some patients are unable to learn how to drink without losing control. In those cases (about 10 percent of patients), Castrén recommends total abstinence from alcohol, but she leaves that choice to patients. “Sobriety is their decision, based on their own discovery,” she told me.

Claudia Christian, an actress who lives in Los Angeles (she’s best known for appearing in the 1990s science-fiction TV show Babylon 5), discovered naltrexone when she came across a flier for Vivitrol, an injectable form of the drug, at a detox center in California in 2009. She had tried Alcoholics Anonymous and traditional rehab without success. She researched the medication online, got a doctor to prescribe it, and began taking a dose about an hour before she planned to drink, as Sinclair recommends. She says the effect was like flipping a switch. For the first time in many years, she was able to have a single drink and then stop. She plans to keep taking naltrexone indefinitely, and has become an advocate for Sinclair’s method: she set up a nonprofit organization for people seeking information about it and made a documentary called One Little Pill.

In the United States, doctors generally prescribe naltrexone for daily use and tell patients to avoid alcohol, instead of instructing them to take the drug anytime they plan to drink, as Sinclair would advise. There is disagreement among experts about which approach is better—Sinclair is adamant that American doctors are missing the drug’s full potential—but both seem to work: naltrexone has been found to reduce drinking in more than a dozen clinical trials, including a large-scale one funded by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism that was published in JAMA in 2006. The results have been largely overlooked. Less than 1 percent of people treated for alcohol problems in the United States are prescribed naltrexone or any other drug shown to help control drinking.

To understand why, you have to first understand the history.

The American approach to treatment for drinking problems has roots in the country’s long-standing love-hate relationship with booze. The first settlers arrived with a great thirst for whiskey and hard cider, and in the early days of the republic, alcohol was one of the few beverages that was reliably safe from contamination. (It was also cheaper than coffee or tea.) The historian W. J. Rorabaugh has estimated that between the 1770s and 1830s, the average American over age 15 consumed at least five gallons of pure alcohol a year—the rough equivalent of three shots of hard liquor a day.

Religious fervor, aided by the introduction of public water-filtration systems, helped galvanize the temperance movement, which culminated in 1920 with Prohibition. That experiment ended after 14 years, but the drinking culture it fostered—secrecy and frenzied bingeing—persists.

In 1934, just after Prohibition’s repeal, a failed stockbroker named Bill Wilson staggered into a Manhattan hospital. Wilson was known to drink two quarts of whiskey a day, a habit he’d attempted to kick many times. He was given the hallucinogen belladonna, an experimental treatment for addictions, and from his hospital bed he called out to God to loosen alcohol’s grip. He reported seeing a flash of light and feeling a serenity he had never before experienced. He quit booze for good. The next year, he co-founded Alcoholics Anonymous. He based its principles on the beliefs of the evangelical Oxford Group, which taught that people were sinners who, through confession and God’s help, could right their paths.

AA filled a vacuum in the medical world, which at the time had few answers for heavy drinkers. In 1956, the American Medical Association named alcoholism a disease, but doctors continued to offer little beyond the standard treatment that had been around for decades: detoxification in state psychiatric wards or private sanatoriums. As Alcoholics Anonymous grew, hospitals began creating “alcoholism wards,” where patients detoxed but were given no other medical treatment. Instead, AA members—who, as part of the 12 steps, pledge to help other alcoholics—appeared at bedsides and invited the newly sober to meetings.

Science can’t yet fully explain why some heavy drinkers become physiologically dependent on alcohol and others don’t, or why some recover while others founder.

A public-relations specialist and early AA member named Marty Mann worked to disseminate the group’s main tenet: that alcoholics had an illness that rendered them powerless over booze. Their drinking was a disease, in other words, not a moral failing. Paradoxically, the prescription for this medical condition was a set of spiritual steps that required accepting a higher power, taking a “fearless moral inventory,” admitting “the exact nature of our wrongs,” and asking God to remove all character defects.

Mann helped ensure that these ideas made their way to Hollywood. In 1945’s The Lost Weekend, a struggling novelist tries to loosen his writer’s block with booze, to devastating effect. In Days of Wine and Roses, released in 1962, Jack Lemmon slides into alcoholism along with his wife, played by Lee Remick. He finds help through AA, but she rejects the group and loses her family.

Mann also collaborated with a physiologist named E. M. Jellinek. Mann was eager to bolster the scientific claims behind AA, and Jellinek wanted to make a name for himself in the growing field of alcohol research. In 1946, Jellinek published the results of a survey mailed to 1,600 AA members. Only 158 were returned. Jellinek and Mann jettisoned 45 that had been improperly completed and another 15 filled out by women, whose responses were so unlike the men’s that they risked complicating the results. From this small sample—98 men—Jellinek drew sweeping conclusions about the “phases of alcoholism,” which included an unavoidable succession of binges that led to blackouts, “indefinable fears,” and hitting bottom. Though the paper was filled with caveats about its lack of scientific rigor, it became AA gospel.

Jellinek, however, later tried to distance himself from this work, and from Alcoholics Anonymous. His ideas came to be illustrated by a chart showing how alcoholics progressed from occasionally drinking for relief, to sneaking drinks, to guilt, and so on until they hit bottom (“complete defeat admitted”) and then recovered. If you could locate yourself even early in the downward trajectory on that curve, you could see where your drinking was headed. In 1952, Jellinek noted that the word alcoholic had been adopted to describe anyone who drank excessively. He warned that overuse of that word would undermine the disease concept. He later beseeched AA to stay out of the way of scientists trying to do objective research.

But AA supporters worked to make sure their approach remained central. Marty Mann joined prominent Americans including Susan Anthony, the grandniece of Susan B. Anthony; Jan Clayton, the mom from Lassie; and decorated military officers in testifying before Congress. John D. Rockefeller Jr., a lifelong teetotaler, was an early booster of the group.

In 1970, Senator Harold Hughes of Iowa, a member of AA, persuaded Congress to pass the Comprehensive Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Prevention, Treatment, and Rehabilitation Act. It called for the establishment of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, and dedicated funding for the study and treatment of alcoholism. The NIAAA, in turn, funded Marty Mann’s nonprofit advocacy group, the National Council on Alcoholism, to educate the public. The nonprofit became a mouthpiece for AA’s beliefs, especially the importance of abstinence, and has at times worked to quash research that challenges those beliefs.

In 1976, for instance, the Rand Corporation released a study of more than 2,000 men who had been patients at 44 different NIAAA-funded treatment centers. The report noted that 18 months after treatment, 22 percent of the men were drinking moderately. The authors concluded that it was possible for some alcohol-dependent men to return to controlled drinking. Researchers at the National Council on Alcoholism charged that the news would lead alcoholics to falsely believe they could drink safely. The NIAAA, which had funded the research, repudiated it. Rand repeated the study, this time looking over a four-year period. The results were similar.

After the Hughes Act was passed, insurers began to recognize alcoholism as a disease and pay for treatment. For-profit rehab facilities sprouted across the country, the beginnings of what would become a multibillion-dollar industry. (Hughes became a treatment entrepreneur himself, after retiring from the Senate.) If Betty Ford and Elizabeth Taylor could declare that they were alcoholics and seek help, so too could ordinary people who struggled with drinking. Today there are more than 13,000 rehab facilities in the United States, and 70 to 80 percent of them hew to the 12 steps, according to Anne M. Fletcher, the author of Inside Rehab, a 2013 book investigating the treatment industry.

The problem is that nothing about the 12-step approach draws on modern science: not the character building, not the tough love, not even the standard 28-day rehab stay.

Marvin D. Seppala, the chief medical officer at the Hazelden Betty Ford Foundation in Minnesota, one of the oldest inpatient rehab facilities in the country, described for me how 28 days became the norm: “In 1949, the founders found that it took about a week to get detoxed, another week to come around so [the patients] knew what they were up to, and after a couple of weeks they were doing well, and stable. That’s how it turned out to be 28 days. There’s no magic in it.”

Dan Saelinger

Tom McLellan, a psychology professor at the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine who has served as a deputy U.S. drug czar and is an adviser to the World Health Organization, says that while AA and other programs that focus on behavioral change have value, they don’t address what we now know about the biology of drinking.

Alcohol acts on many parts of the brain, making it in some ways more complex than drugs like cocaine and heroin, which target just one area of the brain. Among other effects, alcohol increases the amount of GABA (gamma-aminobutyric acid), a chemical that slows down activity in the nervous system, and decreases the flow of glutamate, which activates the nervous system. (This is why drinking can make you relax, shed inhibitions, and forget your worries.) Alcohol also prompts the brain to release dopamine, a chemical associated with pleasure.

Over time, though, the brain of a heavy drinker adjusts to the steady flow of alcohol by producing less GABA and more glutamate, resulting in anxiety and irritability. Dopamine production also slows, and the person gets less pleasure out of everyday things. Combined, these changes gradually bring about a crucial shift: instead of drinking to feel good, the person ends up drinking to avoid feeling bad. Alcohol also damages the prefrontal cortex, which is responsible for judging risks and regulating behavior—one reason some people keep drinking even as they realize that the habit is destroying their lives. The good news is that the damage can be undone if they’re able to get their consumption under control.

Studies of twins and adopted children suggest that about half of a person’s vulnerability to alcohol-use disorder is hereditary, and that anxiety, depression, and environment—all considered “outside issues” by many in Alcoholics Anonymous and the rehab industry—also play a role. Still, science can’t yet fully explain why some heavy drinkers become physiologically dependent on alcohol and others don’t, or why some recover while others founder. We don’t know how much drinking it takes to cause major changes in the brain, or whether the brains of alcohol-dependent people are in some ways different from “normal” brains to begin with. What we do know, McLellan says, is that “the brains of the alcohol-addicted aren’t like those of the non-alcohol-dependent.”

Bill Wilson, AA’s founding father, was right when he insisted, 80 years ago, that alcohol dependence is an illness, not a moral failing. Why, then, do we so rarely treat it medically? It’s a question I’ve heard many times from researchers and clinicians. “Alcohol- and substance-use disorders are the realm of medicine,” McLellan says. “This is not the realm of priests.”

When the Hazelden treatment center opened in 1949, it espoused five goals for its patients: behave responsibly, attend lectures on the 12 steps, make your bed, stay sober, and talk with other patients. Even today, Hazelden’s Web site states:

People addicted to alcohol can be secretive, self-centered, and filled with resentment. In response, Hazelden’s founders insisted that patients attend to the details of daily life, tell their stories, and listen to each other … This led to a heartening discovery, one that’s become a cornerstone of the Minnesota Model: Alcoholics and addicts can help each other.

That may be heartening, but it’s not science. As the rehab industry began expanding in the 1970s, its profit motives dovetailed nicely with AA’s view that counseling could be delivered by people who had themselves struggled with addiction, rather than by highly trained (and highly paid) doctors and mental-health professionals. No other area of medicine or counseling makes such allowances.

There is no mandatory national certification exam for addiction counselors. The 2012 Columbia University report on addiction medicine found that only six states required alcohol- and substance-abuse counselors to have at least a bachelor’s degree and that only one state, Vermont, required a master’s degree. Fourteen states had no license requirements whatsoever—not even a GED or an introductory training course was necessary—and yet counselors are often called on by the judicial system and medical boards to give expert opinions on their clients’ prospects for recovery.

Fourteen states had no license requirements for addiction counselors—not even a GED or an introductory course.

Mark Willenbring, the St. Paul psychiatrist, winced when I mentioned this. “What’s wrong,” he asked me rhetorically, “with people with no qualifications or talents—other than being recovering alcoholics—being licensed as professionals with decision-making authority over whether you are imprisoned or lose your medical license?

“The history—and current state—is really, really dismal,” Willenbring said.

Perhaps even worse is the pace of research on drugs to treat alcohol-use disorder. The FDA has approved just three: Antabuse, the drug that induces nausea and dizziness when taken with alcohol; acamprosate, which has been shown to be helpful in quelling cravings; and naltrexone. (There is also Vivitrol, the injectable form of naltrexone.)

Reid K. Hester, a psychologist and the director of research at Behavior Therapy Associates, an organization of psychologists in Albuquerque, says there has long been resistance in the United States to the idea that alcohol-use disorder can be treated with drugs. For a brief period, DuPont, which held the patent for naltrexone when the FDA approved it for alcohol-abuse treatment in 1994, paid Hester to speak about the drug at medical conferences. “The reaction was always ‘How can you be giving alcoholics drugs?’ ” he recalls.

Hester says this attitude dates to the 1950s and ’60s, when psychiatrists regularly prescribed heavy drinkers Valium and other sedatives with great potential for abuse. Many patients wound up dependent on both booze and benzodiazepines. “They’d look at me like I was promoting Valley of the Dolls 2.0,” Hester says.

There has been some progress: the Hazelden center began prescribing naltrexone and acamprosate to patients in 2003. But this makes Hazelden a pioneer among rehab centers. “Everyone has a bias,” Marvin Seppala, the chief medical officer, told me. “I honestly thought AA was the only way anyone could ever get sober, but I learned that I was wrong.”

Stephanie O’Malley, a clinical researcher in psychiatry at Yale who has studied the use of naltrexone and other drugs for alcohol-use disorder for more than two decades, says naltrexone’s limited use is “baffling.”

“There was never any campaign for this medication that said, ‘Ask your doctor,’ ” she says. “There was never any attempt to reach consumers.” Few doctors accepted that it was possible to treat alcohol-use disorder with a pill. And now that naltrexone is available in an inexpensive generic form, pharmaceutical companies have little incentive to promote it.

In one recent study, O’Malley found naltrexone to be effective in limiting consumption among college-age drinkers. The drug helped subjects keep from going over the legal threshold for intoxication, a blood alcohol content of 0.08 percent. Naltrexone is not a silver bullet, though. We don’t yet know for whom it works best. Other drugs could help fill in the gaps. O’Malley and other researchers have found, for example, that the smoking-cessation medication varenicline has shown promise in reducing drinking. So, too, have topirimate, a seizure medication, and baclofen, a muscle relaxant. “Some of these drugs should be considered in primary-care offices,” O’Malley says. “And they’re just not.”

In late August, I visited Alltyr, a clinic that Willenbring founded in St. Paul. It was here that J.G. finally found help.

After his stays in rehab, J.G. kept searching for alternatives to 12-step programs. He read about baclofen and how it might ease both anxiety and cravings for alcohol, but his doctor wouldn’t prescribe it. In his desperation, J.G. turned to a Chicago psychiatrist who wrote him a prescription for baclofen without ever meeting him in person and eventually had his license suspended. Then, in late 2013, J.G.’s wife came across Alltyr’s Web site and discovered, 20 minutes from his law office, a nationally known expert in treating alcohol- and substance-use disorders.

J.G. now sees Willenbring once every 12 weeks. During those sessions, Willenbring checks on J.G.’s sleep patterns and refills his prescription for baclofen (Willenbring was familiar with the studies on baclofen and alcohol, and agreed it was a viable treatment option), and occasionally prescribes Valium for his anxiety. J.G. doesn’t drink at all these days, though he doesn’t rule out the possibility of having a beer every now and then in the future.

The whole idea made Jean uncomfortable. How did people get better by recounting the worst moments of their lives to strangers? Still, she went.

I also talked with another Alltyr patient, Jean, a Minnesota floral designer in her late 50s who at the time was seeing Willenbring three or four times a month but has since cut back to once every few months. “I actually look forward to going,” she told me. At age 50, Jean (who asked to be identified by her middle name) went through a difficult move and a career change, and she began soothing her regrets with a bottle of red wine a day. When Jean confessed her habit to her doctor last year, she was referred to an addiction counselor. At the end of the first session, the counselor gave Jean a diagnosis: “You’re a drunk,” he told her, and suggested she attend AA.

The whole idea made Jean uncomfortable. How did people get better by recounting the worst moments of their lives to strangers? Still, she went. Each member’s story seemed worse than the last: One man had crashed his car into a telephone pole. Another described his abusive blackouts. One woman carried the guilt of having a child with fetal alcohol syndrome. “Everybody talked about their ‘alcoholic brain’ and how their ‘disease’ made them act,” Jean told me. She couldn’t relate. She didn’t believe her affection for pinot noir was a disease, and she bristled at the lines people read from the Big Book: “We thought we could find a softer, easier way,” they recited. “But we could not.”

Surely, Jean thought, modern medicine had to offer a more current form of help.

Then she found Willenbring. During her sessions with him, she talks about troubling memories that she believes helped ratchet up her drinking. She has occasionally had a drink; Willenbring calls this “research,” not “a relapse.” “There’s no belittling, no labels, no judgment, no book to carry around, no taking away your ‘medal,’ ” Jean says, a reference to the chips that AA members earn when they reach certain sobriety milestones.

In his treatment, Willenbring uses a mix of behavioral approaches and medication. Moderate drinking is not a possibility for every patient, and he weighs many factors when deciding whether to recommend lifelong abstinence. He is unlikely to consider moderation as a goal for patients with severe alcohol-use disorder. (According to the DSM‑5, patients in the severe range have six or more symptoms of the disorder, such as frequently drinking more than intended, increased tolerance, unsuccessful attempts to cut back, cravings, missing obligations due to drinking, and continuing to drink despite negative personal or social consequences.) Nor is he apt to suggest moderation for patients who have mood, anxiety, or personality disorders; chronic pain; or a lack of social support. “We can provide treatment based on the stage where patients are,” Willenbring said. It’s a radical departure from issuing the same prescription to everyone.

The difficulty of determining which patients are good candidates for moderation is an important cautionary note. But promoting abstinence as the only valid goal of treatment likely deters people with mild or moderate alcohol-use disorder from seeking help. The prospect of never taking another sip is daunting, to say the least. It comes with social costs and may even be worse for one’s health than moderate drinking: research has found that having a drink or two a day could reduce the risk of heart disease, dementia, and diabetes.

To many, though, the idea of non-abstinent recovery is anathema.

No one knows that better than Mark and Linda Sobell, who are both psychologists. In the 1970s, the couple conducted a study with a group of 20 patients in Southern California who had been diagnosed with alcohol dependence. Over the course of 17 sessions, they taught the patients how to identify their triggers, how to refuse drinks, and other strategies to help them drink safely. In a follow-up study two years later, the patients had fewer days of heavy drinking, and more days of no drinking, than did a group of 20 alcohol-dependent patients who were told to abstain from drinking entirely. (Both groups were given a standard hospital treatment, which included group therapy, AA meetings, and medications.) The Sobells published their findings in peer-reviewed journals.

In 1980, the University of Toronto recruited the couple to conduct research at its prestigious Addiction Research Foundation. “We didn’t set out to challenge tradition,” Mark Sobell told me. “We just set out to do good research.” Not everyone saw it that way. In 1982, abstinence-only proponents attacked the Sobells in the journal Science; one of the writers, a UCLA psychologist named Irving Maltzman, later accused them of faking their results. The Science article received widespread attention, including a story in The New York Times and a segment on 60 Minutes.

Over the next several years, four panels of investigators in the United States and Canada cleared the couple of the accusations. Their studies were accurate. But the exonerations had scant impact, Mark Sobell said: “Maybe a paragraph on page 14” of the newspaper.

America spends $35 billion a year on substance-abuse treatments, yet heavy drinking causes 88,000 deaths a year.

The late G. Alan Marlatt, a respected addiction researcher at the University of Washington, commented on the controversy in a 1983 article in American Psychologist. “Despite the fact that the basic tenets of [AA’s] disease model have yet to be verified scientifically,” Marlatt wrote, “advocates of the disease model continue to insist that alcoholism is a unitary disorder, a progressive disease that can only be arrested temporarily by total abstention.”

What’s stunning, 32 years later, is how little has changed.

The Sobells returned to the United States in the mid-1990s to teach and conduct research at Nova Southeastern University, in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. They also run a clinic. Like Willenbring in Minnesota, they are among a small number of researchers and clinicians, mostly in large cities, who help some patients learn to drink in moderation.

“We cling to this one-size-fits-all theory even when a person has a small problem,” Mark Sobell told me. “The idea is ‘Well, this may be the person you are now, but this is where this is going, and there’s only one way to fix it.’ ” Sobell paused. “But we have 50 years of research saying that, chances are, that’s not the way it’s going. We can change the course.”

During my visit to Finland, I interviewed P., a former Contral Clinic patient who asked me to use only his last initial in order to protect his privacy. He told me that for years he had drunk to excess, sometimes having as many as 20 drinks at a time. A 38-year-old doctor and university researcher, he describes himself as mild-mannered while sober. When drunk, though, “it was as if some primitive human took over.”

His wife found a Contral Clinic online, and P. agreed to go. From his first dose of naltrexone, he felt different—in control of his consumption for the first time. P. plans to use naltrexone for the rest of his life. He drinks two, maybe three, times a month. By American standards, these episodes count as binges, since he sometimes downs more than five drinks in one sitting. But that’s a steep decline from the 80 drinks a month he consumed before he began the treatment—and in Finnish eyes, it’s a success.

Sari Castrén, the psychologist I met at Contral, says such trajectories are the rule among her patients. “Helping them find this path is so rewarding,” she says. “This is a softer way to look at addiction. It doesn’t have to be so black and white.”

J.G. agrees. He feels much more confident and stable, he says, than he did when he was drinking. He has successfully drunk in moderation on occasion, without any loss of control or desire to consume more the next day. But for the time being, he’s content not drinking. “It feels like a big risk,” he says. And he has more at stake now—his daughter was born in June 2013, about six months before he found Willenbring.

Could the Affordable Care Act’s expansion of coverage prompt us to rethink how we treat alcohol-use disorder? That remains to be seen. The Department of Health and Human Services, the primary administrator of the act, is currently evaluating treatments. But the legislation does not specify a process for deciding which methods should be approved, so states and insurance companies are setting their own rules. How they’ll make those decisions is a matter of ongoing discussion.

Still, many leaders in the field are hopeful—including Tom McLellan, the University of Pennsylvania psychologist. His optimism is particularly poignant: in 2008, he lost a son to a drug overdose. “If I didn’t know what to do for my kid, when I know this stuff and am surrounded by experts, how the hell is a schoolteacher or a construction worker going to know?” he asks. Americans need to demand better, McLellan says, just as they did with breast cancer, HIV, and mental illness. “This is going to be a mandated benefit, and insurance companies are going to want to pay for things that work,” he says. “Change is within reach.”



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