Jason Day was ranked No. 1 in Strokes-Gained Putting for the 2016 season. His average Strokes Gained on the field per round was an incredible 1.13 strokes (4.52 strokes per event). For context, this is the largest advantage recorded over the 13 years for which Strokes-Gained Putting is now available. This article explains how his performance was superior, and why I believe it is the best ALL TIME.
What is Strokes-Gained Putting?
The PGA Tour added its new Strokes-Gained Putting analysis in 2011. It was a revolutionary breakthrough in analysis, and a huge departure from the myopic, one-dimensional putting stats of yesteryear (number of putts per round and number of putts per GIR’s).
Simply stated, Strokes-Gained Putting places a numeric value on each putting opportunity based on distance from the hole. The result of the shot (or putt) is: [Start Value – Number of Putts to Hole Out]. The starting distance values on the PGA Tour are based upon the average performance on Tour since 2004 when ShotLink was implemented. My company, ShotByShot.com, uses start values that are based on the average performance of all of the “Scratch” rounds recorded in our system since 2003 (Scratch = 0 differential from Slope Adjusted Course Rating).
Start = 8 ft. Value = 1.50 (A Tour player will make this putt 50 percent of the time).
# Putts: 1; SG = 0.5 (1.5 – 1.0 = 0.5)
# Putts: 2; SG = 0-.5 (1.5 – 2.0 = -0.5)
Here’s an example of how Strokes-Gained Putting works. Let’s say a golfer has an 8-foot putt, which the stats say a player should make 50 percent of the time. The putt is given a value of 1.5. If the golfer makes it, he/she gains 0.5 strokes on the field. If the golfer misses it, he/she loses 0.5 strokes on the field.
There is a complete explanation of Strokes Gained and its history on my website: ShotByShot.com.
Back to J. Day
I have conducted a detailed study of the No. 1-ranked player each year since 2011. The results provide valuable perspective for the Tour players with whom I work. Because the Tour now produces this analysis as far back as ShotLink was collecting the data, I can now include players from 2004 forward.
P.S. I found it worthy to note that Ben Crane was the best putter on Tour for two consecutive years and Luke Donald for THREE!
Jason Day vs. the No. 1s
I was immediately curious to see what Day did to overshadow all of the prior No. 1s. Could it be that he three-putted fewer times than the other 12? No! Day’s 2.4 percent rate of three-putts per holes played was actually the second highest among his No. 1 peers.
Side Note: For the benefit of the rest of us, the average 10-handicap’s three-putt avoidance is 8.5 percent, or almost three times that of the Tour’s 3.04 percent average.
And no, Day also did not one-putt with greater frequency than the other No. 1s. It was his unusual consistency that set him apart.
We all have our good and bad days on the greens AND, so do the best putters on Tour… except Day in 2016. In 16 events this year where Strokes Gained was measured, he never had a negative Strokes-Gained Putting result. None of the No. 1s had ever done that.
Have a look at the numbers in the graph below. Only Tiger came close in 2004 with only one negative Strokes-Gained event.
Jason Day vs. 2016 Tour Average
Finally, I looked into exactly what separated Day by 1.13 shots every round from the rest of the Tour in 2016. Only 18 percent of the difference resulted from fewer three-putts (see three-putt avoidance above). The remaining 82 percent resulted from increased one-putts, particularly Day’s very high standard in the range of 6-to-15 feet.
My research showed me long ago that on Tour the range of 6-10 feet separates the good putters from the pack, while the range of 11-20 feet determines the winners. Day’s putting no doubt played a major role in his three wins, ten Top-10s, $8+ million earned and his No. 1 ranking.
Is Jason’s 2016 putting season the best EVER?
We can easily agree that it is the best since 2004. The numbers are clear. And I don’t believe that there could have been a better putting season prior to 2004, because there have been too many important advancements in technology and agronomy in the past 14 years.
Technology: The quality and consistency of the balls and putters has dramatically improved, and so have the instruction tools. Further, with vastly improved analysis by distance ranges, players have much better information on exactly where they need to work to compete.
Agronomy: Putting surfaces are simply much better. Improved strains of grass and dramatically improved maintenance equipment and practices produce consistently smoother putting surfaces.
We will never know for sure, but I am confident that Day’s performance, at least as captured by ShotLink, is the best ever. It will be fun to see if it can be topped in the years to come.
from GolfWRX http://www.golfwrx.com
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