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AQR Capital’s Chief Investment Officer describes his unique value & momentum quant strategy.   Are Markets Efficient? Baloney, Says Cliff Asness Hat tip Mike   Apr 22, 2014

The post Cliff Asness: Are Markets Efficient? appeared first on The Big Picture.

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By Robert Huebscher of Advisor Perspectives

Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, U.S.-centric portfolios should diversify globally.

Gundlach is the founder and chief investment officer of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital, a leading provider of fixed-income mutual funds and ETFs. He spoke to investors via a conference call on January 10. Slides from that presentation are available here. This webinar was his annual forecast for the global markets and economies for 2017.

Before we look at his 2017 predictions, let’s review his forecasts from a year ago. His two highest conviction forecasts were that the Fed would not raise rates more than once, despite the Fed’s own predictions, and that Trump would win the presidency. Both predictions were accurate.

But he was also downbeat on emerging markets, and singled out Brazil and Shanghai as likely underperformers. Brazil turned out to be the best-performing emerging market last year, gaining 69.1%, but he was correct about Shanghai, which was the worst performing market, losing 16.5%.

Gundlach said he had a “low conviction” prediction that the yield on the 10-year Treasury would break to the upside. It began 2016 at 2.11% and ended at 2.45%. He said the probability was that U.S. equities would decline in 2016, yet the markets gained approximately 13%. Gold, he said, would hit $1,400 at some point in 2016. It began the year at approximately $1,100, hit a high of $1,365 during the summer and closed at approximately $1,150. 

Let’s look at his forecasts for 2017, including the one which he called “the chart of the webcast.”

Doomed by debt?

The U.S. household debt-servicing ratio is at its lowest level since 1980, according to Gundlach, despite what he called an “explosion” in private-sector debt. That ratio would change adversely if rates rise, he cautioned, although that might be offset by an increase in income.

Public-sector debt is at 75% of GDP, not including the portion of the debt owned by the Fed, he said. Gundlach has warned of fiscal debt problems, as he has done in the past, but pointed out that since 2011 federal debt has “leveled out” as a percentage of GDP. But he warned that Trump’s policies would lead to a “steeper slope upwards” as compared to the congressional budget office (CBO) debt projections, which show a 141% debt-to-GDP ratio by 2046.

Trump may deliver the tax cuts he promised to the rich in return for infrastructure and defense spending, Gundlach said, and that would lead to structural debt problems – it would get us to the 141% level sooner than in 2046, he said. Those spending initiatives will not kick in this year, he noted, and might take as long as two years to get going.

Gundlach offered data showing that the deficit will increase faster than it has in the post-crisis period, although those projections were made prior to Trump’s victory, and that the portion of the deficit allocated to mandatory (entitlement) spending has grown steadily over the last 50 years.

The recession watch

The historical pattern has been that a recession has occurred during the first term of a new president, especially when following a two-term presidency. But Gundlach said that the leading economic indicators (LEIs) are positive, and there has never been a recession without those indicators going negative. CEO confidence is “moving up” and consumer confidence is “exploding,” he said, which further supports his prediction that a recession is not imminent.

“President Trump will lead to a breakout of the ‘forever 2% GDP growth’ we have seen for six to seven years,” Gundlach said. “Animal spirits have been stirred.” He noted that a small-business sentiment report released that day was the most bullish it had been in a long time.

“I guess optimism is infectious,” he said.

He also relies on comparisons of the unemployment rate to its moving average as a recession warning. He said those metrics are not signaling a recession either. He added that the PMIs are saying that the “pattern of recession is being avoided.”

Inflation

Investors should brace for moderately higher inflation. Inflation indicators, other than the PCE, are in an uptrend, he said. The internet-based PriceStats gauge is exactly in line with the CPI, and the ECRI inflation metric corroborates the rise in inflation. In response to some analysts who recently predicted a bond-market rally, Gundlach said, “A forecast of a 1.5% 10-year yield looks awfully shaky.”

The inflation break-even rate, based on the difference between nominal Treasury and TIPS yields, is at 2%, its highest level since late 2014. That seems like a “reasonable” price he said, and TIPS and nominal Treasury bonds are fairly valued with respect to each other.

Short term rates are heading up, including LIBOR. The 2% implied inflation forecast is for the next five years, which he said was possible but higher inflation is more likely. Average hourly earnings and overall wage growth are rising in the U.S., Europe and Japan, he said.

Commodities put in a “massive double bottom” in January of 2016, Gundlach said, and gold bottomed in December of 2015; both are rising now. He said he has advocated a “permanent” gold position since 1990, although he is not “wildly bullish” on it, particularly following the Trump victory. Copper has fallen recently, which supports the modest bond rally that has occurred since mid-December. Oil inventories are very high and that is why Gundlach thinks $70/barrel oil is unlikely. Oil prices will vacillate between mid-$40s and high-$50s, he said.

But the biggest story about inflation is in Germany. Below is what Gundlach called “the chart of the webcast”:

For a long time, German inflation was at or below the yield on its sovereign 10-year bond. But this chart shows that German CPI is now 1.7%, its highest level in 16 years. Yet the chart shows that the 10-year Bund yield is a mere 25 basis points, implying sharply negative real yields.

Gundlach asked, rhetorically, how German yields can stay at that level with this much inflation. Bunds, he said, are vulnerable.

The Fed

Gundlach predicted that the Fed would not raise rates in March, but would in June and probably again later in the year. He assigned a 50% probability to a third rate increase.

Since 2014, the Fed has been systematically reducing its projections of where short-term rates would be in 2017, according to Gundlach. Late last year, when inflation was starting to increase, the Fed was at its lowest projection.

As a result, a narrative is developing that the Fed is “behind the curve” with respect to raising rates, but Gundlach doesn’t think so. He said that lower rates will help finance the big infrastructure bill that is coming.

Gundlach cited academic research that claimed to show that the Fed Funds rate would have needed to be at -3% to achieve the same effect as the quantitative easing (QE) programs it followed in the post-crisis period. Since it is no longer engaged in QE, it is effectively tightening at approximately that 300 basis point rate, and that policy has led to recessions in the past. But he cautioned against making too much of an inference from that research, because rates are at a different (lower) level that at the time of prior recessions.

Bond market projections

The 10-year closed at 2.38% on the day he spoke. He said it will go below 2.25% but not below 2% in the current rally. Analysts’ forecasts for the 10-year yield have been consistently too high over the last five years. Now forecasters are predicting a flat year, but Gundlach had a different view.

“I think rates are going to rise in 2017,” he said. “For sure rates are going to rise.”

Moreover, as he said in his prior webcast, if the 10-year yield surpasses 3%, “the bond bull market is over from a classic chart perspective.” He said that would also mean “trouble” for equity markets.

Gundlach noted that another prominent bond manager had made the same prediction, but said the threshold was 2.60% instead of 3%. But Gundlach pointed out that the yield had already reached 2.64% last year. He did not name this manager, but it almost certainly was Bill Gross.

In the short-term, though, he said, “We are going to see another leg up on bond yields after this rally.”

Over the medium term, Gundlach said the 10-year yield could hit 6% in four years, about the time of the next presidential election. He noted that inflation and economic growth are already at levels similar to 2006, when interest rates were at 6%. A move to 6% would not be bad for bond investors, he said, given the opportunity to reinvest coupons at higher yields, and returns might be similar to what investors would have received on a stagnant 1.5% yield.

Junk bonds are “way off their highs,” Gundlach said. They did great until mid-December but now are “muddling along.” Many investors think that because high-yield debt ended 2016 at a high price they are not vulnerable to an interest rate increases, he said. But that is incorrect, according to Gundlach; if rates move higher, high-yield bonds will not go up in price because spreads have already tightened. The high-yield ETF JNK tracked the S&P 500 in 2016, but that will not repeat in 2017, he said. In 2016, credit spreads drove prices; now it will be interest rates.

Gundlach said he is neither bullish nor is he bearish on the dollar. The dollar will be supported by Fed rate hikes, but Gundlach doubted that the dollar (based on the DXY index) will go above $120 (it was at $102 on the day he spoke). Trump understands that a strong dollar sounds better than it actually is, Gundlach said, and that influences his dollar forecast, which is in opposition to the consensus, which favors a stronger dollar.

The ratio of copper-to-gold prices is a “fantastic” coincident indicator of the economy and interest rates, Gundlach said. If copper keeps softening or gold goes up, it will support a bond rally in the short term.

Investment recommendations

Diversify outside of the U.S., Gundlach said. Usually analysts call for this following rallies outside the U.S., he said, which has not universally been the case. But the U.S. is “richly valued” and Gundlach said now is the time to look at other markets.

U.S. stocks are at a high level relative to earnings, he said. Analysts are expecting a 20% increase in earnings, which would be helped by Trump’s proposed tax cuts, according to Gundlach. But there is a lot of anticipated profit margin expansion in analyst earnings projections, he said. “Unless earnings really pick up,” he said, “there will be a problem.”

Wages have picked up and the gross operating surplus across corporations has gone down, he said. The Shiller CAPE is getting near its 1929 levels, fueling his believe that that the U.S. is richly valued.

Gundlach noted a few markets that he liked – and a few he didn’t.

He favors India, which has been one of his picks for the last several years for long-term price appreciation

Mexico is “massively exposed” to a potential tariff increase, he said, since 80% of exports are to the U.S. “I am not fond of Mexican investments given that uncertainty.”

Given his neutral outlook on the dollar, he recommended an allocation to emerging markets. He noted that the S&P 500 has been outperforming emerging-market equities over the recent past, and that a reversal of that trend is coming.

Gundlach also likes the Nikkei. He said that Abenomics is supportive of Japanese equities through automatic buying by the Bank of Japan. That policy is shrinking the Japanese market by 6% annually, he said. The yen will weaken more, so investors should hedge their currency exposure, according to Gundlach.

But Gundlach doesn’t recommend Europe because of “election risks” in France and the Netherlands. “It is a bad bet to expect the populism trend to change,” he said. “There will be trouble in the next year.”

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Last Saturday, January 7, marked the 17th edition of the U.S. Army All-American Bowl, in San Antonio, Texas. WHOOP was on hand as an official sponsor for the event, which featured 100 of the nation’s best high school football players.

In a matchup pitting East vs. West, the East emerged with a 27-17 victory in front of a record crowd of 40,568. Most Valuable Player honors went to Clemson-bound quarterback Hunter Johnson, who threw a 61-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter to Henry Ruggs III (not yet committed) for the game’s first score.

Beyond the game itself, the week-long exhibition included a Coaches Academy, team practices and a National Combine for underclassmen hoping to one day be All-Americans.

For the 100 players who participated in the Bowl, it represented the culmination of outstanding high school careers. Prior to arriving in San Antonio, many had already committed to the college of their choosing. Others used the weekend as a chance to showcase their decision, such as the nation’s top-ranked defensive back Jeffrey Okudah, who announced he’ll be attending Ohio State.

Running back Najee Harris, considered by many to be the No. 1 overall recruit in the country, opted to let his choice be known by flying directly from the game to Alabama, where he’ll suit up next year for the Crimson Tide.

Okudah made a pair of tackles on Saturday and broke up one pass play for the West squad, while his teammate Harris rushed for 23 yards on eight carries. Prior to the game, both Okudah (above) and Harris (below) trained with WHOOP Straps during West team practice.

Train the right way, the whoop way. @whoop #ArmyBowl http://pic.twitter.com/OBumtaLTx2

— #ArmyBowl (@ArmyAllAmerican) January 5, 2017

The National Combine, held the day before the Bowl, included 600 underclassmen from around the country.  Modeled after the NFL Scouting Combine, players took part in drills such as the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, power pushup and shuttle runs.

For the younger players looking to become elite, what can they do to take the next step? The opportunity to measure oneself against the nation’s best can be a hard reality check. There will always be someone who is bigger, faster, stronger–someone with a higher vertical leap and a better 40 time.

It’s an extremely fine line that exists between the most physically gifted athletes and those just below. Smart training habits in the next year or two could make all the difference in determining which of the 600 combine participants eventually make it to the Bowl game.

Working out harder is not always the answer. Properly managing Strain, as well as prioritizing Sleep and Recovery are essential for optimizing performance. Players who embrace this through a better understanding of their body’s can get that edge necessary to make it to the next level.

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Throughout the last two decades, the popularity and participation of hockey have increased around the world. The underlying driving force of hockey’s growth is the result of increased media coverage. This growing interest translates into increased participation at the grassroots level. As participation increases, so too does the level of talent. Over time, the caliber of talent rises, and now more diversity exists in the NHL.

Up until the 1970s, the National Hockey League had been mainly comprised of Canadian players.

Things are changing now, thanks to new media.

The early 1970s experienced a mass influx of non-Canadian nationalities playing in the NHL, the greatest rise being held by Americans.

The NHL’s popularity in the United States is largely due to the continual growth of media coverage. Ice hockey participation in the U.S. has increased by nearly nine percent since 2010, according to the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF).

In November 2013, the NHL embarked on a 12-year, $5.2-billion media rights agreement with Rogers Communications. This meant all national rights to NHL games would be exclusive to Rogers beginning in the 2014-15 season.

Since then, the NHL sold overseas distribution rights to IMG in October 2015, which provides NHL game coverage to the United Kingdom. NHL media rights were also sold to Eurovision to broadcast games in Russia. Beginning in the 2016-17 season, NHL games have become more accessible to Russians than they’ve ever been. Modern Times Group also entered into a five-year partnership renewal deal with the NHL. This includes broadcast and online exclusivity rights for NHL games across the Nordic countries.

Media & Hockey’s Growth

New digital advancements are quickly making their way onto the hockey world’s center stage. Gary Bettman, the NHL’s commissioner, has proven to be a reliable source of change when it comes to growing the league globally. Bettman has embraced change time and time again, and he’s done so with open arms. In early 2015, the NHL entered a multi-year partnership with SAP SE, now known as the official cloud software provider of the NHL. This technology provides fans with data and enhanced analytical insights unlike any the league has ever witnessed. Starting in the 2016-17 season, the NHL’s website also started offering out-of-market fans with enhanced live game digital streaming.

The World Cup of Hockey became an event to endure changes too, as new technology like microchips were embedded into the puck and player jerseys. Tablets were integrated onto benches and around the rink for coaches to use as needed. Rogers started offering NHL games in 4K, and the NHL launched a new arena app in 2016.

Teams and fans aren’t the only beneficiaries of Bettman’s open-arms policy either. Digital sponsorship innovations are just as much a priority to growing the game, as enhancing the fan experience. The World Cup allowed sponsors to experiment with virtual ads on rink boards. Other new digital media sponsorship opportunities are constantly rolling out in the NHL, especially with social media campaigns.

Fans everywhere are getting more access and instant access to their favorite teams with greater ease than ever. As a result, the demand for print media has decreased substantially. In fact, Rogers digital consumer magazine revenue is exceeding its newsstand revenue by 50 percent. Furthermore, beginning January 2017, the Rogers Sportsnet magazine will no longer be available in its print format. This is one of several print editions the media conglomerate has eliminated in an effort to meet their audiences where they are.

A New Digital Hockey Era

As new media quickly floods the hockey scene, the internet is quickly becoming the main touch-point for fans. This includes those residing in non-North American countries, with a focus being in Europe where the game is seeing a great deal of growth. According to the IIHF 2016 Survey of Players, the Czech Republic ranked third of top hockey nations in the world. This isn’t surprising considering where the majority of European players are coming from in the CHL Import Draft. As expected, the Czech Republic has seen the most players drafted since 1992 by far.

The NCAA is also seeing more European players now than ever before. Their Division 1 men’s hockey program has an all-time high of 82 European hockey players enrolled for the 2016-17 season. Furthermore, North America produced 23 of the 30 first round draft picks of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. Countries overseas are indeed producing some of the league’s most elite talent and it’s happening at an increasing rate. With larger talent pools forming around the world, the CHL, the NCAA and the NHL are experiencing greater diversity. This also means their corresponding fan bases are as well.

International Tournaments

Nations outside of North America have been gaining traction in hockey’s high-calibre department for quite some time. Although Team Europe did not win the 2016 World Cup of Hockey, they were very close to beating Canada, who managed to score two goals during the last 90 seconds of the final game, for a 2-1 victory.

On television, 3.1 million Canadians watched Canada versus Russia in the World Cup’s semifinals, which was the highest-rated game in the past year. According to the IIHF, Russia is seeing serious growth in hockey participation, as participation in the sport has increased by 61 percent between 2010 and 2016.

Since 1994, there’s been six Winter Olympics. Although Canada has won half of these gold medals (2014, 2010 and 2002), European countries have won the others: Sweden (2006, 1994), and the Czech Republic (1998). An astounding 15 million Canadians watched the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic men’s hockey game when Canada beat Sweden to win gold. However, Canada’s victory against Team USA in the 2010 Olympic gold-medal game was the most-watched hockey game in the U.S. in 30 years. Nearly half of the Canadian population watched the entire game on average (16.6 million viewers), while 80 percent of Canadians watched some part of the game (26.5 million).

The difference in viewership numbers between the 2010 and 2014 Olympics is largely due to countries who played in the gold-medal games. The rising popularity of hockey in the U.S. is feeding American competition, which raises a new challenge for Canadian players. As any champion rises to the challenge, so do their viewership ratings upon success.

The World Junior Championships is where we’re seeing the U.S. have the biggest long-term impact of their increased hockey participation. Over the last two decades, Canada has won seven gold medals in the World Juniors (2015, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 1997). Finland has won three (2016, 2014, 1998), as well as Russia (2011, 2003, 1999), and the Czech Republic (2002, 2001, 2000). Sweden has one (2012), and the USA has four (2017, 2013, 2010, 2004). Although Canada has won the most, the U.S. won them more recently and consistently.

Finland is also seeing a rise in viewership ratings and has experienced a 14 percent increase in hockey participation between 2010 and 2016. During the 2016 World Junior Championships, 15.3 million Canadians tuned in to watch Finland beat Russia, 4-3, in overtime. Almost 2.5 million Finns tuned in for at least part of the tournament’s final game as well. That’s a little less than half of Finland’s population.

Historically, World Junior games haven’t drawn a great deal of interest in European countries, except for when the host country competes in the gold-medal game. During the 2016 World Juniors, though, the tournament was broadcast live in nine of the 10 participating countries for the first time ever.

There was a surge in viewership ratings in Finland when they beat the Swedes at the 2014 World Juniors for the gold-medal game. Higher viewership ratings in Finland can also be attributed to the tournament being aired on free television. In recent years, it had been offered on pay TV only.

The Canada-Finland quarter-finals also drew 2.55 million Canadian viewers on TSK and RDS, which was the second-highest Canadian audience. The Canada-United States preliminary-round on Boxing Day, though, had the best rating and attracted 2.9 million viewers.

Hockey’s growth in new markets has spawned greater talent, and with more talent comes more national wins. One of the many ripple effects this has on non-traditional hockey markets is an increased demand for coverage. In essence, new media is the driving force growing the game on a global scale.

Although its impacts are not immediate, media coverage generates interest for hockey in new markets. In turn, hockey participation rises in these markets, and therefore so does their level of competition. With greater competition comes greater talent, and with greater talent comes more wins. This then fuels viewership ratings and resets the global growth cycle for hockey once again.

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Hulu has released the first trailer for its upcoming show The Handmaid’s Tale.

The tense teaser shows off Elizabeth Moss’s character Offred, a handmaid in the Republic of Gilead. We also get glimpses of the times before the collapse of the United States into an oppressive theocratic regime in which women are stripped of their rights.

The Handmaid’s Tale is adapted from the 1985 dystopian novel by Margaret Atwood. Atwood wrote the novel in response to rise of extreme-right religious groups in the 1980s. Atwood is serving as a Consulting Producer for the series.

Hulu has ordered 10 episodes for the first season, which will premiere on Hulu on April 26th, 2017.

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Sara Holbrook (Jennifer Hearn)

Badly worded or poorly conceived questions on standardized tests are not uncommon (remember the question about a “talking pineapple” on a New York test in 2012?). But here’s something new: The author of source material on two Texas standardized tests says she can’t actually answer the questions about her own work because they are so poorly conceived. She also says she can’t understand why at least one of her poems — which she calls her “my most neurotic” — was included on a standardized test for students.

The author is Sara Holbrook, who has written numerous books of poetry for children, teens and adults, as well as professional books for teachers. She also visits schools and speaks at educator conferences worldwide, with her partner Michael Salinger, providing teacher and classroom workshops on writing and oral presentation skills. Her first novel, “The Enemy, Detroit 1954″ will be released March 7, 2017.

In this amusing but sobering post, Holbrook writes about the episode.  This first appeared on the Huffington Post, and Holbrook gave me permission to republish.

The tests on which Holbrook’s poems appeared are the STARR, the State of Texas Assessments of Academic Readiness. The questions were released by the Texas Education Agency. Teachers use past test questions to prepare students for future exams.

 

By Sara Holbrook

When I realized I couldn’t answer the questions posed about two of my own poems on the Texas state assessment tests (STAAR Test), I had a flash of panic – oh, no! Not smart enough. Such a dunce. My eyes glazed over. I checked to see if anyone was looking. The questions began to swim on the page. Waves of insecurity. My brain in full spin.

The two poems in question are “A Real Case,” appearing on the 2014 Grade 7 STAAR Reading Test, and “Midnight,” appearing on the 2013 Grade 8 STAAR Reading Test. Both poems originally appeared in “Walking on the Boundaries of Change,” Boyds Mills Press, 1998.

Let me begin by confessing that “A Real Case” is my most neurotic poem. I have a pile of them to be sure, but this one is the sour cherry on top. The written evidence of my anxieties, those evil gremlins that ride around on tricycles in my mind shooting my self-confidence with water pistols. How in the name of all that’s moldy did this poem wind up on a proficiency test?

Dose of reality: test makers are for-profit organizations. My poems are a whole lot cheaper than Mary Oliver’s or Jane Kenyon’s, so there’s that. But how would your vulnerable, nervous, number two pencil-gripping seventh grade self have felt opening your test packet to analyze poetic lines such as this:

I’m just down with a sniffly case/of sudden-self-loathing-syndrome … an unexpected extra serving/ of just-for-now-self-hate.

Seriously? Hundreds of my poems in print and they choose THAT one? Self-loathing and self-hate? Kids need an extra serving of those emotions on testing day?

I apologize to those kids. I apologize to their teachers. Boy howdy, I apologize to the entire state of Texas. I know the ‘90s were supposed to be some kind of golden age, but I had my bad days and, clearly, these words are the pan drippings of one of them. Did I have a purpose for writing it?

Does survival count?

Teachers are also trying to survive as they are tasked with teaching kids how to take these tests, which they do by digging through past tests, posted online. Forget joy of language and the fun of discovery in poetry, this is line-by-line dissection, painful and delivered without anesthetic. One teacher wrote to me last month, working after 10 p.m., trying to figure out the test maker’s interpretation of my poem “Midnight.” This poem isn’t quite as jarring as “A Real Case,” simply symptomatic of aforementioned neuroses: It’s about insomnia.

“Hello Mrs. Holbrook. My name is Sean, and I’m an 8th grade English teacher in Texas. I’m attempting to decipher the number of stanzas in your poem, ‘Midnight’. This isn’t clear from the formatting in our most recent benchmark. The assessment asks the following question:

“Dividing the poem into two stanzas allows the poet to―

1. A) compare the speaker’s schedule with the train’s schedule.

B ) ask questions to keep the reader guessing about what will happen

1. C) contrast the speaker’s feelings about weekends and Mondays
2. D) incorporate reminders for the reader about where the action takes place.

The answer is C) to contrast the speaker’s feelings about weekends and Mondays.

How many stanzas are in this poem? Where are they located? I would appreciate your help. Thank you so much!”

Oh, goody. I’m a benchmark. Only guess what? The test prep materials neglected to insert the stanza break. I texted him an image of how the poem appeared in the original publication. Problem one solved. But guess what else? I just put that stanza break in there because when I read it aloud (I’m a performance poet), I pause there. Note: that is not an option among the answers because no one ever asked me why I did it.

These test questions were just made up, and tragically, incomprehensibly, kids’ futures and the evaluations of their teachers will be based on their ability to guess the so-called correct answer to made up questions.

Then I went online and searched Holbrook/MIDNIGHT/Texas and the results were terrifying. Dozens of districts, all dissecting this poem based on poorly formatted test prep materials.

These test questions were just made up, and tragically, incomprehensibly, kids’ futures and the evaluations of their teachers will be based on their ability to guess the so-called correct answer to made up questions.

Texas, please know, this was not the author’s purpose in writing this poem.

At the end of this article is a question-by-question breakdown of the test questions on A REAL CASE and my thinking as I attempted to answer them. But fair warning:  Your eyes are going to glaze over as you read through them. But try to hang in there. Pretend your future depends on it. That you might not be promoted into the next grade with all the other kids your height and will have to remain in seventh for the rest of your life if you don’t pass. Seventh grade! That muddy trough where kids try to keep afloat clinging to the wispy thread of: This won’t last forever.  But if you don’t pass this blamed (blaming) test, it just might. Oh no!  Put a pencil between your teeth, bite down, and open your test packet.

Meantime, here is my question:

1. Does this guessing game mostly evidence:

A    the literacy mastery of the student?

B    the competency of the student’s teacher?

C    the absurdity of the questions?

D    the fact that the poet, although she has never put her head in an oven, definitely has issues.

Let’s go with D since I definitely have issues, including issues with these ridiculous test questions.

The same year that “Midnight” appeared on the STAAR test (2013), Texas paid Pearson some $500 million to administer the tests, reportedly without proper training to monitor the contract. Test scorers, who are routinely hired from ads on (where else?), Craiglist, also receive scant training, as reported by this seasoned test scorer. I’m not sure what the qualifications are for the people who make up the questions, but the ability to ride unicorns comes to mind.

Now comes research that reveals that a simple demographic study of the wealth of the parents could have accurately predicted the outcomes, no desks or test packets needed.  Educator and author Peter Greene reports,

“Put another way, Tienken et. al. have demonstrated that we do not need to actually give the Common Core-linked Big Standardized Test in order to generate the “student achievement” data, because we can generate the same data by looking at demographic information all by itself.

Tienken and his team used just three pieces of demographic data—

1. percentage of families in the community with income over $200K

2. percentage of people in the community in poverty

3. percentage of people in community with bachelor’s degrees

Using that data alone, Tienken was able to predict school district test results accurately in most cases.”

Now, technically Texas does not adhere to the Common Core, but since their tests are written and administered by the same sadistic behemoth, Pearson, it’s fair to draw some parallels. At least as fair as (say) those made-up questions about my neurotic poems.

When I heard the campaign promises to eliminate the Common Core made by Donald Trump, I thought, yeah, right. Wait until someone educates him on how much money is being made making kids miserable with these useless tests. Talk is cheap. School testing is big bucks, and those testers are not going down without a fight.

Stop it. Just stop it.

The only way to stop this nonsense is for parents to stand up and say, no more. No more will I let my kid be judged by random questions scored by slackers from Craigslist while I pay increased taxes for results that could just as easily have been predicted by an algorithm. That’s not education, that’s idiotic.

I won’t drag you through the entire dissection of my poem MIDNIGHT, just the concluding stanza:

. . . And I meander to its rhythm,

flopping like a fish.

Why can’t I get to sleep?

Why can’t I get to sleep?

14 The poet uses a simile in lines 23 and 24 to reveal that the speaker —

F  wants to be outside G  cannot get comfortable H  does not like fishing J   might be having a dream

I say G, H, and J.  I can’t get comfortable with any of this, it all seems like a bad dream (which indeed can keep me awake) and correct, I don’t like fishing (ick, worms). But fishing through school testing is even creepier than a fistful of worms, especially when it’s mislabeled as a legitimate measure of student and teacher competency.

Parents, educators, legislators, readers of news reports: STOP TAKING THESE TEST RESULTS SERIOUSLY

Idiotic, hair-splitting questions pertaining to nothing, insufficient training, profit-driven motives on the part of the testing companies, and test results that simply reveal the income and education level of the parents – For this we need to pay hundreds of millions of dollars and waste 10-45 days of classroom time each year to administer them? More if you consider the amount of days spent in test prep?

What creative ideas might Sean have been cooking up at 10 p.m. on a cold Wednesday night to excite his kids about reading and learning if he hadn’t been wandering down this loopy labyrinth? Would he have been drafting a lesson plan for those kids to develop their writing and communication skills through writing their own poetry? Maybe he just would have been catching an extra hour of sleep to feel energized for the colossal task he is faced with every day, turning on adolescents to reading, writing, and learning.

Maybe by leading kids to poetry instead of force feeding it to them, Sean could have helped them sort through their own neuroses, helping to become better adults and see themselves as something other than a test score, as worthless as a leftover bath.

But we can’t know that, because at 10 p.m. on December 13, 2016, Sean was writing to me, trying to decipher misleading test prep materials he’d been handed to ready his kids for a test they will take sometime next spring.

I may be neurotic, but this is crazy.

But then, what do I know. I can’t answer the questions on my own poetry. Read below:

 

STARR Test, Grade 7 2014

Let’s take these questions one at a time:

32 Which lines from the poem best suggest that the speaker’s situation is temporary?

F Doubtful,/I have a fever

G Tomorrow,/I’ll come around

H TODAY!/It hit like a thwop of mashed potatoes

J I could attract mosquitoes—/maybe—not friends.

I’m guessing G, but I could make a pretty good argument for H as it (all caps) belongs to today. Mustn’t overthink this, clock’s ticking. Let’s go with G.

33 What is the most likely reason that the poet uses capitalization in line 6?

A To highlight a problem the speaker experiences

B To stress the speaker’s expectations for tomorrow

C To indicate that the speaker’s condition happens unexpectedly

D To show the speaker’s excitement about an upcoming event

Could be A. All caps is a way to highlight a fact, right? I guess I wanted to stress the fact that the feeling belongs to TODAY, but maybe the answer is B. Let’s see, today is not tomorrow, could be that. But climbing into the test maker’s mind, I’m guessing they want the answer C. But here’s the thing: I remember adding the ALL CAPS during revision. Was it to highlight the fact it arrived today or was it to indicate that it happened unexpectedly? Not sure. Move on, lots to cover.

34 Read the following lines from the poem.

The poet includes these lines most likely suggest the speaker –

F does not wish to be pushed on a swing

G wants to deal with the situation alone

H does not often receive help from others

J is not physically strong

1. Definitely F. I don’t like being pushed around, especially on a mood swing. Or maybe F and G, clearly the speaker doesn’t want anyone in her space, pushing her around. Right? F, G, or wait, how about H? Exactly. Pushing me around when I’m in a mood is not helpful, but people do that all the time. Cheer up. Get that look off your face. Not helpful. J is just stupid, but is it a trick? (What happened to choice I? Where is I? Who am I?)

35 The imagery in lines 16 through 19 helps the reader understand –

A the shift in the speaker’s attitude

B the speaker’s unpleasantness

C why the speaker has no friends

D what the speaker thinks of others

Where is E, all of the above? C. Incoming dog breath has no friends. That’s obvious. Or B. Unpleasant yes, but that’s kind of an understatement. And of course there’s an argument to be made for A, I did shift into this mood TODAY. It wasn’t there yesterday. I obviously am not thinking much about others, that’s true (D), I was pretty much into myself and I was having a bad day.

36 The poet reveals the speaker’s feelings mainly by –

F using similes and metaphors to describe them

G explaining their effect on others

H connecting them to memories

J repeating specific words for emphasis

Now I really need that all above option. Yes F, using similes and metaphors in description. Righto. G, the phrase “could attract mosquitoes, not friends” is a pretty sure indicator my lousy mood had a bad effect on others. H? How else except through memory would I conjure up nasty dog breath and a terminal case of split ends? And then there’s J, repeated words (today, today, today). This one was the real stumper. Total guessing game on this one.

My final reflection is this: any test that questions the motivations of the author without asking the author is a big baloney sandwich. Mostly test makers do this to dead people who can’t protest. But I’m not dead.

I protest.