The Case for School Choice Is Overwhelming From Every POV Except One

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Today marks the start of National School Choice Week (NSCW), an annual event designed to promote awareness of and interest in K-12 educational policies that give parents and students more ways to personalize and individualize their primary and secondary learning experiences. Reason is a proud media partner of NSCW, which has helped to organize over 30,000 events around the country this week. NSCW is agnostic on the form that choice takes—could be charter schools, voucher programs, private-school scholarships, homeschooling, education savings accounts (ESAs), you name it. All that matters is that it put the needs of students front and center.

Go here to find out information about events and activities happening in your area.

Throughout the week, Reason will be publishing articles, commentaries, videos, and podcasts on education policy. Tomorrow, for instance, we'll release an interview with George Mason University economist Bryan Caplan, whose forthcoming book on school policy literally makes the case against education (seriously: His book is called The Case Against Education: Why the Education System Is a Waste of Time and Money). On Tuesday, Reason's policy analyst Lisa Snell will host a panel discussion in Los Angeles with Matthew Ladner of the Charles Koch Institute and Jason Bedrick of EdChoice tacking the "most persistent arguments against school choice and why they're wrong." That event will be livestreamed via Hit and Run and Reason's Facebook page at 6:00 P.M. Pacific Time. John Stossel will be interviewing Eva Moskowitz, whose Success Academy is leading the way in charter-school success in New York City. Later in the week, we'll release a video expose of New York City's practice of paying millions of dollars in tuition to send kids with learning issues to private schools; we'll also publish a fascinating magazine story about the "microschool" movement. Consider it Shark Week, but for education policy.

For past School Choice Week coverage, go here.

For the latest education policy work from analysts at Reason Foundation, the nonprofit that publishes this website, go here.

The title of this post makes the claim that the case for giving students and parents more options for K-12 education is overwhelming. Here's some evidence about choice programs that get students into private schools from A Win-Win Solution: The Empirical Evidence on School Choice, by Greg Forster (Fourth Edition, 2016):

  • Eighteen empirical studies have examined academic outcomes for school choice participants using random assignment, the gold standard of social science. Of those, 14 find choice improves student outcomes: six find all students benefit and eight find some benefit and some are not visibly affected. Two studies find no visible effect, and two studies find Louisiana's voucher program—where most of the eligible private schools were scared away from the program by an expectation of hostile future action from regulators—had a negative effect.
  • Thirty-three empirical studies (including all methods) have examined school choice's effect on students' academic outcomes in public schools. Of those, 31 find choice improved public schools. One finds no visible effect. One finds a negative effect.
  • Twenty-eight empirical studies have examined school choice's fiscal impact on taxpayers and public schools. Of these, 25 find school choice programs save money. Three find the programs they study are revenue neutral. No empirical study has found a negative fiscal impact.
  • Ten empirical studies have examined school choice and racial segregation in schools. Of those, nine find school choice moves students from more segregated schools into less segregated schools, and one finds no net effect on segregation. No empirical study has found that choice increases racial segregation.
  • Eleven empirical studies have examined school choice's effect on civic values and practices, such as respect for the rights of others and civic knowledge. Of those, eight find school choice improves civic values and practices. Three find no visible effect from school choice. No empirical study has found that school choice has a negative effect on civic values and practices.

And when it comes to the ways that charter schools help at-risk students (often minorities in urban areas), it turns out that randomized control trials (RCTs) paint an unambiguous picture of success by basically any measure.

Outside of K-12 education, there is virtually no other good or service for which expanded choices would be considered a bad thing. Even absent abundant empirical evidence, it makes sense that choice is good, especially given that students are forced to attend school. When it comes to food or medicine, no one would stand for being forced to patronize this or that supermarket or doctor based on residential addresses. Letting students sort and match among competing providers is not simply a pragmatic goal but a moral one that allows individuals to reach their potential more easily. The only perspective that holds otherwise comes from those who benefit from a status quo that costs more and more money while returning flat or declining outcomes.

Over the coming week, we'll be laying out a comprehensive case for exponentially increasing school choice. In the meantime, here's a presentation that Lisa Snell and I gave in 2016 about ways to curb public education abuses.



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CBS' Patriots-Jaguars teaser featuring John Malkovich will get you fired up to watch football like never before

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Before the Patriots play the Jaguars in Sunday's AFC Championship Game, CBS will air a teaser featuring John Malkovich in which the famed actor questions the necessity of such a production. "But if they see this, aren't they already watching?" he asks, before wondering, "Couldn't you just get Jim Nantz to narrate over some footage?" Good thoughts, John, but instead, CBS hired you to create the ultimate hype video for a football game. And boy, are we glad they did.

RELATED: Rob Gronkowski unknowingly creates the perfect Gronk catchphrase

What starts in humor turns into a dramatic performance -- complete with a full orchestra -- worthy of an Emmy as Malkovich explains how he would "tease" this David-Goliath matchup of Jacksonville attempting to pull off a huge upset in New England to advance to the Super Bowl. The thought of Blake Bortles taking down Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at home seems impossible, but not after you hear Malkovich's powerful words that legit gave us chills. Anyway, have a look, because it's utterly brilliant:

And if the game is even one tenth as good, we're in for a treat.

RELATED: Why they are greasing light poles with Crisco in Philadelphia


WATCH MORE VIDEOS FROM THE LOOP



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15 For 18: A Strategy That Consistently Beats The Market

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In basketball, 15 out of 18 is a pretty good free throw percentage. I promise readers that know that I enjoy both basketball and investing that this is not another missive on Carmelo Anthony and market efficiency. In the NBA, the best basketball players in the world are shooting on average 76.6%. Lebron James, perhaps the best player in the world, is shooting 77.8%. This article is going to describe a strategy that has beat the market in 15 of the last 18 years (83.3%). Beating the market is more like a 50/50 proposition. In the universe of investors that comprise the stock market, roughly half are going to outperform on a given year and roughly have are going to underperform. Beating the market consistently is harder than standing unguarded fifteen feet from the basket and hitting a shot, but understanding this strategy can offer tips to consistently turn investing into something more closely resembling a lay-up.

In a recent series of articles, I highlighted five strategies for buy-and-hold investors that have historically beat the market. The fourth and fifth parts of this series are factor tilts that when combined have outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY), a commonly referenced market benchmark, with striking regularity.

The Dividend Aristocrats, S&P 500 constituents which have paid increasing levels of dividends for at least 25 consecutive years, have produced a return profile exceeding the broader market by 2.3% per annum over the past nearly three decades while exhibiting only four-fifths of the return volatility. The ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NYSEARCA:NOBL) closely replicates the Dividend Aristocrats.

The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is a version of the S&P 500 where the constituents are equal weighted as opposed to the traditional market capitalization weighting of the benchmark gauge. The Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA:RSP) replicates this alternative weight index. When the equal-weighted version of the index is rebalanced quarterly to return to equal weights, constituents which have underperformed are purchased and constituents which have outperformed are reduced, a contrarian strategy that has produced excess returns relative to the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 index over long time intervals.

Equal-weighting also gives an investor a greater average exposure to smaller capitalization stocks, a risk factor for which investors have historically been compensated with higher average returns. Over a long time series dating back to the 1990, equal-weighting has beat the capitalization-weighted benchmark by 2.5% per year. In an even longer data series that stretches back to the 1920s, equal-weighting the U.S. stock market constituents has bested capitalization-weighting by 2.8% per year.

Index total returns, including reinvested dividends, for the Dividend Aristocrats and the Equal Weight Index are detailed below. I compare a 50-50 weight of the two indices versus the total return of the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY).

The Dividend Aristocrats produced a disproportionate amount of their relative excess return versus the S&P 500 in falling markets (see 2002, 2008), and the equal-weighted index produced its relative excess returns in rising markets (see 2003, 2009), combining their return profiles produces a risk profile that exceeds the broader market with less variability of returns.

Combining these two strategies in equal proportions has bested the S&P 500 in 15 of the past 18 years. Singularly, the Dividend Aristocrats have beat the S&P 500 in 11 of the past 18 years, and the Equal Weighted Index has beat the S&P 500 in 13 of 18 years, but combining the two passive strategies in equal proportions has led to even more consistent outperformance.

How good has the outperformance of this strategy been? Any active fund manager beating the market for 15 of the last 18 years would have made himself a lot of money. The geometric average return of this strategy (+10%) soundly beat the S&P 500 (+5.4%) by nearly 5% per year while exhibiting lower return variability.

Over this historically weak period for stock returns that featured two large drawdowns (tech bubble, Global Financial Crisis), a dollar invested in this strategy in 2000 would be worth $5.51 today while a dollar invested in the S&P 500 would be worth less than half that figure, just $2.58, even with the S&P 500 near all-time highs.

In each of the years that the S&P 500 produced negative returns in this sample period, the Dividend Aristocrats outperformed. The worst performance for the Dividend Aristocrats relative to the market has been in 1998, 1999, and 2007 - years that preceded down years for the market. Combining the Dividend Aristocrats with the equal-weighted index, which tends to outperform the market when it is sharply rising, provides a diversification benefit.

The 50/50 strategy's underperformance in both 2015 and 2017 was likely a function of the outperformance of the high-flying tech stocks. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Facebook (FB) were all top ten contributor's to the S&P 500's rise in both years. Since none of these stocks were even in existence for the full 25-year time horizon needed for inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats, none were included in that half of this strategy. They obviously have a much lower weight (0.2%) in the equal-weight strategy than the capitalization-weighted strategy where they are top holdings.

While there can be periods of underperformance like 2017, I am pretty confident in saying that over the next 18 years, a combination of the Dividend Aristocrats and the Equal Weighted Index will have lower variability of returns than the broader market. Because the Dividend Aristocrats Index is populated by companies that are able to return increasing levels of cash to shareholders through both the peaks and valleys of the business cycle, this index has lower drawdowns in weak markets.

If we believe that this strategy will have lower relative risk to the broad market, will this strategy continue to generate excess returns? I believe that the Dividend Aristocrats will produce excess returns when adjusted for their lower risk over long time intervals. This strategy effectively overweights these high quality companies, capturing the Low Volatility Anomaly, and missing S&P 500 constituents that go out of business. I am sure that some astute readers will note that the Dividend Aristocrats have outperformed the combination with the Equal Weighted Index over the entire dataset. Adding the Equal Weighted Index enhances returns in bullish market environments, allowing the combination to be more consistent together.

While their risk-adjusted performance will remain strong, I do not expect that low volatility stocks, like the Dividend Aristocrats, will necessarily continue to outperform the broader market on an absolute basis. As long-time readers know, I believe that there are structural and behavioral reasons that Low Volatility strategies have generated structural alpha. I am very confident in future risk-adjusted outperformance, but less confident on absolute outperformance of these strategies prospectively as the interest rate environment eventually normalizes.

As I have written before, equal weighting the S&P 500 constituents is an alpha-generative contrarian strategy that also more effectively captures the "small(er) cap premium" than the capitalization weighted S&P 500, and I think that this part of this 50/50 strategy will be an increasing component of its outperformance prospectively.

For passive investors who want broad market exposure, understanding that changing your index weightings to a combination that overweights dividend growth stocks and equal weights the broad market benchmark has historically produced higher average returns with lower variability of returns. I hope this article helps readers to better understand how to combine factor tilts to improve portfolio performance. That's the alpha we are seeking.

Disclaimer: My articles may contain statements and projections that are forward-looking in nature, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions. While my articles focus on generating long-term risk-adjusted returns, investment decisions necessarily involve the risk of loss of principal. Individual investor circumstances vary significantly, and information gleaned from my articles should be applied to your own unique investment situation, objectives, risk tolerance, and investment horizon.

Disclosure: I am/we are long RSP,NOBL,SPY.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.



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41 of Google's Toughest Interview Questions

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Google has a reputation for asking difficult, brainteaser interview questions that challenge how you act under pressure.

Most of them require you to think quantitatively and broadly, and test the way you tackle problems on the spot.

Google probably switches up its questions over time, but career website Glassdoor provides a glimpse of the types of brain-stumping puzzles Google has asked in the past.

Not all of Google's tricky questions are necessarily meant to be brainteasers--some of them sound simple but turn out to be difficult to answer in a concise way.

1. What is your favorite Google product, and how would you improve it?--Associate product manager, January 2016

 

2. If you wanted to bring your dog to work but one of your team members was allergic to dogs, what would you do?--Associate account strategist, December 2014

 

3. If ads were removed from YouTube, how would you monetize it?--Associate account strategist, January 2016

4. What do you know about Google?--Administrative business partner, February 2015

 

5. Design an evacuation plan for the building.--Business analyst, November 2014

6. Which do you think has more advertising potential in Boston, a flower shop or a funeral home?--Account strategist, October 2015

7. A coin was flipped 1,000 times and there were 560 heads. Do you think the coin is biased?--Quantitative analyst, September 2015

8. What does "being Googley" mean to you?--Product specialist, December 2015

9. Name a prank you would pull on x manager if you were hired.--Google applications support engineer, June 2014

10. What is your opinion on whether or not individuals should be required to use their official name when opening a Gmail or Google +  account?--Administrative assistant, April 2014

11. What would you want to do if you didn't have to work?--Interaction designer, September 2014

12. What scares you?--Business analyst interview, September 2014

13. How many ways can you think of to find a needle in a haystack?--Business associate, May 2014

14. Estimate the number of tennis balls that can fit into a plane.--Intern, December 2015

 

15. If you could be remembered for one sentence, what would it be?--Associate account strategist, March 2014

16. If you could only choose one song to play every time you walked into a room for the rest of your life, what would it be?--Associate account strategist, March 2014

17. How do you think the digital advertising world will change in the next three years?--Creative director, January 2016

18. What three things would you change at your university/workplace if you were CEO today?--Account strategist, April 2014

19. Describe AdWords to a 7-year-old.--Associate account strategist, December 2014

20. You have a grocery delivery service (similar to Amazon Fresh) that delivers food within 24 hours. Estimate how many trucks you need to operate this service.--Product manager, November 2015

21. How would you explain cloud computing to a 6-year-old?--Product manager, November 2015

 

22. Tell me what you think about Google charging users $1 per month to use Gmail.-- BOLD candidate, October 2015

23. How many haircuts do you think happen in America every year?--Business associate, May 2014

24. List six things that make you nervous.--Android support level III, July 2014

25. Tell me something about you that isn't on your résumé.--Associate account strategist, March 2014

26. What is the market for driverless cars in the year 2020?--Product manager, November 2015

27. Model raindrops falling on a sidewalk (sidewalk is 1m and raindrops are 1cm). How could we know when the sidewalk is completely wet?--Software engineer, January 2016

28. How would I explain the importance of HTML 5 to Larry Page and then to my grandma?--Creative specialist, January 2016

29. Tell me a joke.--Executive assistant, March 2014

30. Do you prefer earning or learning?--Software engineer, January 2016

Source

31. If I gave you $10 million right now, what would you do?--Associate account strategist, May 2014

32. Define a service that would allow you to travel to the future.--Interaction designer, December 2015

33. Would you remove the link to an extremist piece of writing?--Legal assistant, December 2015

34. How could you solve humankind's biggest crisis given $1 billion and a spacecraft?--Database administrator, December 2015

35. You have a colony on Mars that you want to communicate with. How do you build a system to communicate with them?--Associate product manager, November 2014

36. How many cars travel across a bridge each day?--Advertising interview, September 2014

37. If you had access to a bank's database, how would you use that information to design an ATM for elderly people?--Associate product manager, February 2015

38. How would you improve a shoe factory?--Field operations specialist, November 2014

39. Design a mobile social app for a chain of local orthodontist offices.--Product manager, November 2015

40. What is the number of new book titles published in the U.S. each year?--Product manager, November 2015

41. How would you solve homelessness in downtown San Francisco?--Product manager, November 2015



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Change My View: Why Our Best Hope for Civil Discourse Is on Reddit

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I had a view, and my view was this: Serial sexual abusers should submit to castration. Castration, I believed, would sideline the abuser’s compulsions and thus keep the world safe from him (or her lol). While castration hasn’t been tested on abusers in the Harvey Weinstein style, it’s been used with success on child molesters, bringing the recidivism rate, or so I’d read somewhere, from 75 percent to 2 percent. (Another upside: Castration is rumored to forestall male-pattern baldness.) Of course I meant an entirely bloodless course of hormone therapy. Not a hatchet. I’m not some harridan. The abusers would just get shot up with something called an anaphrodisiac, a brew to suppress androgens and other traces of Aphrodite in the blood.

My opinion was built on a couple of statistics, but less rational motivations were also in play. Like many who have held jobs, I’ve served my time in taxis and at happy hours showing down with groping goats in the garb of VIPs. I’ve either wised up to or aged out of this dispiriting cycle, but now, I imagined, with a touch of grandiosity, I might stop it dead. My view, if I really advocated for it, might not only redeem my own experiences, it would revise my earlier meekness with a Valkyrie-like reversal—and avenge the sisterhood.

Yet another contingency undergirded my pro-castration platform: a church-trained, perhaps sentimental worldview that even the worst among us can be delivered from evil—if not by prayer alone then by the ministrations of a compassionate endocrinologist. My hormone-­therapy prescription was designed both to recognize the suffering of the sinner—he’s “sick” and treatable with medicine—and to punish him with that pitiless word. Castration.

So I had this opinion, and as you can tell I adored it; it made the crooked places in my brain straight and the rough places plain. As the opinion gave me comfort, I grew more tenacious. I amassed an arsenal made of words sharpened to a fine point. I was all but spoiling for a fight.

At the same time, something seemed sinister in my view. Castration? It was zealous. It was maybe mean. At once I realized: I dearly wanted to have my opinion changed.

Because, look, as righteous as I felt, my conscience was also appalled that I wanted to disable the testicles of any mother’s son, however much that son liked to masturbate into potted plants and force frottage on colleagues at the vending machine. To recommend that those in power sterilize, spay, and geld the people they don’t approve of—that seems the very essence of barbarism. Had my desire for revenge made a Mengele of me? Worse still, was I trying to pass off my personal revenge fantasy as high-minded and rational, inspired by Google searches I digni­fied as “scientific data”? And so I signed on to Change My View, a section of Reddit where people post opinions and ask to have them changed.

Change My View was the brainchild of Kal Turnbull, a musician who was just 17 when he launched the subreddit in 2013, roughly three years before intransigence became the guiding principle of all debate everywhere. As a high school senior, Turnbull could have been forgiven for digging in his heels on teen truisms like punk’s not dead or—he’s Scottish—alba gu bràth. Instead he rebelled against all sloganeering and groupthink.

“I was generally surrounded by people that all think similarly,” Turnbull told me by email from near Inverness, in the Scottish Highlands, where he records music in a farm shed. Back in 2013 Turnbull and his mates tended to discuss Breaking Bad, Scottish independence, and indie rock, but Turnbull won’t say what the group’s consensus on those things was, because he’s assiduous about avoiding bias now. “In the grand scheme of the world, we all thought similarly,” he told me. “This led me to wonder, what does someone actually do when they want to hear a different perspective or change their view?”

Turnbull didn’t want to attract the chippy you-talkin’-to-me? crowd that was already adequately represented on Reddit. He meant to populate his forum with people sincerely in quest of lively and honorable debate. At first Change My View did attract rancor and ad hominem brattery, but Turnbull was patient and true to his vision of civil discourse. He enlisted moderators from among the more fair-minded regulars, and for five years now they have policed not just name-calling, rudeness, and hostility but superfluous jokes and mindless agreement. (Turnbull deletes what he calls “low-effort” comments.)

Change My View looks like a standard sub­reddit, a message board on which threads are organized by topic. (The parent company of Condé Nast, which owns WIRED, holds a majority stake in Reddit.) Yes, you have to trudge through the Caledonian Forest of Reddit’s UX and, as usual, risk being hazed when you trespass against Reddit’s clubby customs. But it’s worth it. CMV is a little heath of reason.

If you have a view, you post it. You’re a “submitter.” Then those who aim to change your view roll in, posting their views of your view. These are “commenters.” Submitters are not supposed to look for fights on Change My View; that’s for … everywhere else on the internet. Instead CMV posters foreground their flexibility—and maybe some insecurity, which brings with it a poignant willingness to be transformed.

Once you submit a view, you’ve committed to a mental marathon. The rule that makes Change My View different from a freewheeling chat room is that a submitter is required to respond within three hours to brook respectful challenges to their view. You can’t just post and skedaddle for the day. If a submitter doesn’t respond to commenters in good time, they’re considered AWOL, insincere, or obdurate, and the board moves on.

"What’s astounding about Change My View is that no single radioactive topic—not Trump, Brexit, sex, guns—has overrun it."

So you train your attention on the topic, and stay and debate. In come the comments, raising questions and courteously testing your conviction. If you’re unmoved by the comments and refuse to modify your original submission, the debate comes to a close when commenters get tired of it. But if you are persuaded to change your view, and only when you decide it’s changed, you award a delta, the mathematical symbol for change, which is rendered by Option-J on a Mac. The delta goes to the commenter who you believe made you modify, or overturn, your view. To have your view changed or to change someone else’s view are both counted as victories.

Recently a poster called Sherlocked_  plowed into a time-honored lion’s den: “I lean left but believe abortion should be illegal in most cases.” What appeared, however, were not lions at all. Instead, gentlemanly commenters filed in to make debating-society points about physical autonomy. Sherlocked_  heard them out, asking for clarification here and there, but refused to budge.

Finally Penny_lane67 moved the subject from the status of the fetus to the woman, saying that pregnancies can affect women in many ways—some physical, some otherwise. Sherlocked_  acknowledged that this thought was new to him. He mulled it over, ruminating in a few paragraphs.

At last he wrapped up the thread in a small internet miracle: “As I type this and think about it more I think you’re right, even if it wasn’t abuse and it was simply an accidental pregnancy, there is a chance the pregnancy could cause psychological harm to the mother. And because that would be so hard to diagnose, if I allow abortions in those cases I think I effectively have to in all cases.” Delta. ∆

Now I wanted nothing more than to have Sherlocked_’s intellectual curiosity, flexibility, generosity, broad-mindedness. But I wasn’t sure I could pull it off. I entered Change My View with trepidation. I felt like I was submitting to chemical castration myself.

Kal Turnbull, who is now 22, created the Change My View subreddit in 2013.

Kate Peters

Turnbull’s good gardening has let a thousand flowers bloom, and what’s astounding about Change My View is that no single radioactive topic—not Trump, Brexit, sex, guns—has overrun it. Instead, eclectic subjects, most far from the headlines, pile up like a tone poem. Submissions include “Chiropractors are pseudo-­scientific BS,” “Palestine will be completely annexed by Israel within 50 years,” and “In Mrs. Doubtfire (1993) Daniel is the villain.”

The diversity supplies a surge of faith in our fellows. In our era of idées fixes it’s almost disorienting to read an opinion that’s held lightly, so lightly it’s presented expressly for overhaul. Submitters here are by definition skeptical of their own views or otherwise dislike holding too fast to them. But initially I couldn’t fathom how to phrase a view as pre-undermined and prime for demolition. That is, until I started looking closely at the submitted views, which, as in the case of my castration view, contained hints of minds at war with themselves. The submitter who finds chiropractors quacks seemed to hope one might relieve their joint pain, where the Mrs. Doubtfire connoisseur, who took the controversial stand that lovable Daniel (Robin Williams) is the villain of the piece, appeared mostly to want to match wits with other fans of the film. As for the bold opiner on Israel, maybe this person feared for the future they nonetheless foresaw and was hoping someone would disabuse them of the prophecy. Sometimes an opinion seems like a burden you long to lay down.

If submitting is an act of trust, it follows that commenting on a submission is an act of dominance. Commenters on Change My View are a much more familiar internet type than are submitters, whom they far outnumber. After all, they prefer being right to doubting themselves. They also like debate, persuasion, and the sweet, swift QED of winning an argument. They crave those deltas.

When I first heard about the preponderance of commenters, I wondered whether CMV simply reproduced the power dynamics of ordinary internet shouting matches, with the sole innovation that it had found people, like me, entirely willing to play the fish at the poker table. I pushed Turnbull on this. “Those who are good at challenging views would not necessarily be good at being challenged themselves,” he admitted.

“Only one gets to be right!” I persisted, seeing a chance to win.

And that’s when Turnbull—who at 22 is less than half my age—opened my eyes. His reasoning instantly modeled exactly the civil, and enjoyable, discourse he’s promoting.

“Assuming the view change is correct, those who have gained new perspective also ‘get to be right,’ ” he wrote. He even wishes we were all more pleased when we find out we’re wrong about something. “I would try to celebrate it,” he went on, “but I agree it’s not always as simple as this. It seems to be in our nature to focus on how we were wrong over the fact that we’re now right (as if we can’t be works in progress), and we often attach our egos to what we believe. This is an idea we are trying to challenge at CMV. A view is just how you see something, it doesn’t have to define you, and trying to detach from it to gain understanding can be a very good thing.”

Racking up deltas is how you get on the leaderboard at CMV. But in some ways, the subreddit rewards change on either side. One of the highest scorers in delta-acquisition to date is a Brett W. Johnson, management consultant, Eagle Scout, and member of Mensa based in Houston.

Johnson emailed me at length explaining that he believes in regularly challenging his own views, and Change My View is the first place he has discovered where you can demonstrate a willingness to change course without being perceived as weak. “In many places, if someone is open to having their mind changed on an issue, they are often met with scorn or ridicule for not already believing the alternate view,” he wrote. “There are few places I have ever found where someone can come in and say, ‘I’m not sure why people don’t think like I do—can anyone help me understand the other side?’ and be met with honest, civil, and straightforward discussion.”

Johnson is now a moderator on Change My View, and he understood my anxiety about submitting a view for challenge. I realized I was abashed both about my view and my reasons for holding it. And I was about to expose both things to the internet. What if my logic was found wanting?

He wrote, “Personally, I love being wrong! Being shown that I was wrong means that I get to remove a little pocket of ignorance I had and gain a more complete understanding of the world.”

My fear of being polemically impotent now seemed embarrassing. I was ready to love being wrong. So at last I submitted my case for the chemical castration of sex abusers to Change My View. You have to post the reasons for your belief, however imminently erroneous; I did that. But I didn’t say why I was anxious about my view—that I feared I was a monster for holding it.

The commenters were exceedingly civil. With what seemed like plain curiosity, the first ones asked whether I imagined the men in question would have to have criminal convictions before they were considered serial abusers. I admitted I hadn’t thought of that; most of the men I had in mind were the ones who’d been exposed by extensive reporting, but they hadn’t been tried. I conceded that it could be an elective therapeutic treatment for men who acknowledged they were sexually compulsive and destructive, but compulsory castration would be appropriate only for convicts. That taught me that actually administering the kind of program I was advocating would be thorny. Then Moonflower, who has been awarded 60 deltas, wrote, “The problem with any kind of permanent-­physical-damage punishment is that occasionally an innocent person will be convicted, and these medications do carry health risks which it would be unethical to force upon a person who might turn out to be innocent.” I liked that Moonflower raised the specter of innocence among alleged sexual abusers without politics or stridency. In other forums—like, say, Twitter—anyone who extenuates sexual abuse is considered a traitor to the sisterhood. But “occasionally an innocent person will be convicted” was nothing but an acknowledgment of the imperfection of the criminal legal system. So far, I couldn’t tell anything about anyone’s political allegiances, gender, or cultural positioning; usually a conversation about sex, gender, and penises brings out the most entrenched ideologues. But here we were discussing logistical, practical, and ethical questions. It came to me in a flash: This had nothing to do with Trump!

That alone was a surprise. We were somehow free.

Damn do these people like to debate. Thomas­Edmund84 pulled up as a fellow traveler: “I can’t believe this topic came up today (been debating this issue all morning).” I asked him how he and his people had framed the conversation, and he said, “The nature of the debate was quite complex—as best I could tell from the literature, chem castration is very effective in some people and ineffective in others—high chance of side effects in both. I think in the end worth a shot if the person agrees, unfair without.” There was something in the “as best I could tell” that suggested he knew he was fallible, and that was the house style on the forum. We’re doing the best we can, trying to get to the truth, and no one of us has a monopoly on it.

Eventually I awarded deltas to three commenters who had helped me modify my view: I now allowed that the hormone treatment for sexual abusers would have to be post-conviction, voluntary, and reversible. My opinion was no longer a “take” fitted to Twitter or an op-ed. It was a responsible perspective, honed in a collegial atmosphere. There was something else surprising about this gang. Not one of them had called me a castrating bitch.

In a culture of brittle talking points that we guard with our lives, Change My View is a source of motion and surprise. Who knew that my most heartening ideological conversation in ages would involve gonads, gender wars, and for heaven’s sake Reddit?

And in the end Change My View did change my view. It lifted—for a time, anyway—a set of persistent doubts about the sturdiness of my opinions. Yes, my opinions generally sound plausible. As a rule, I substantiate them. But occasionally I suspect with a shudder that I’ve conceived one in partisan bias, scattershot anxiety, or even outright malice. In short, I question my capacity to reason impartially. What if, in this case, my view was prompted exclusively by rage at widespread sexual mistreatment of women? Or even blind fury at men? I tried to see the bright side: At least I was questioning my beliefs and their underpinnings, which would make me fit right in on Change My View.

While I’ve been anxious about my moral character more times than I can count, I hadn’t realized that I was bringing all that private brooding to my first post on Change My View. What I wanted, in coming to CMV, was to drop my self-doubt—to be relieved of that view of myself.

In this I wasn’t alone. I suspected the antiabortion submitter had felt as I did, worried that his view of abortion was at odds with the rest of his ideals, and that the contradiction suggested something was wrong with him. Just as I feared that misandry motivated me to favor castration, this submitter, who said he was generally liberal, seemed anxious that in wanting to recriminalize abortion he was a closet misogynist.

Maybe what we share when we submit views for changing is not the view itself as much as those poltergeist doubts that haunt all of us—about our motives, our capacity to reason, our politics, our principles, even our essential goodness. It’s that profound vulnerability in users of the forum that makes Change My View such a trusting and rewarding community.

There’s something wrong with me. That was an opinion that felt like a burden I’d longed to lay down. That was a view it felt like a triumph to change.


  • Tech, Turmoil, and the New Censorship: Zeynep Tufekci explores how technology is upending everything we thought we knew about free speech.
  • “Nice Website. It Would Be a Shame if Something Happened to It.”: Steven Johnson goes inside Cloudflare's decision to let an extremist stronghold burn.
  • Everything You Say Can and Will Be Used Against You: Doug Bock Clark profiles Antifa’s secret weapon against far-right extremists.
  • Please, Silence Your Speech: Alice Gregory visits a startup that wants to neutralize your smartphone—and un-change the world.
  • 6 Tales of Censorship: What it's like to be suspended by Facebook, blocked by Trump, and more, in the subjects’ own words.

Virginia Heffernan (@page88), a WIRED contributor, is the author of (Magic and Loss: The Internet as Art).

This article appears in the February issue. Subscribe now.



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To Save Drowning People, Ask “What Would Light Do?”

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Imagine you’re a lifeguard and you see someone struggling to stay afloat. Being a responsible lifeguard, you want to get to them as quickly as possible. You’re pretty fast when swimming, but even faster running on sand. So what’s the quickest route to get to the swimmer? It may not sound like it, but this puzzle, which was laid out by famed physicist Richard Feynman, is actually an analogy for the behavior of light. Although I first read it over 10 years ago, its lesson about how light travels has stuck with me.

Aatish Bhatia

At first thought you might consider whether a straight line (path A) is the fastest path. This is indeed the shortest one, but it isn’t the quickest. You can do better, because if you run further along the beach, you’ll cover more distance on land than in water. And since you’re faster on land, you get there in less time.

So maybe option B is quickest? Of all the choices, this path involves the least swimming. But that’s not right either. Although you’re moving faster now, this route is too long, and it slows you down.

As you can see, there’s a trade-off here. As Feynman puts it, “the path of least distance has too much water in it; the path of least water has too much land in it; the path of least time is a compromise between the two.” The quickest route is C—a very specific path that lies somewhere between A and B.

Students of calculus learn to solve these sorts of optimization problems. But how do lifeguards do it? Are lifeguards calculating derivatives and solving equations in their heads? I doubt it. I bet that they use some combination of training and sheer instinct, in the same way that a basketball player doesn’t need to understand the laws of projectile motion to make a free throw. Somehow we’re able to approximate solutions to fairly tricky math problems without explicitly doing any math. (It’s even harder to solve in reality, because of added variables like the ocean current.) 

You might be wondering what this has to do with light. In 1657 the French lawyer and mathematician Pierre De Fermat (the same guy behind Fermat’s Last Theorem) worked out that when light travels from one place to another, it always takes the path of least time. The strange implication is that if a lifeguard needs to get somewhere as fast as possible, she should ask herself what light would do. 

Here’s a way to understand this. Say you take a laser pointer and shine it into a bowl of water. The light is now in a similar situation to the lifeguard. When it’s moving through air, it can whiz by incredibly fast, but while it’s in the water, it’s slowed down, because it keeps bumping into water molecules. And do you see what the light does? It bends, just like the lifeguard’s path does when she reaches the water.

If you shine a laser pointer into a bowl of water, you’ll see that the light bends. The angle by which it bends is provided by Snell’s law.Matt Kuchta / CC-BY

In fact, there’s a formula called Snell’s law that correctly predicts the exact angle by which the light bends, depending on the materials it’s traveling through and the angle at which it hits the surface. This formula works, but it isn’t particularly illuminating (so to speak)—it gives you the right answer, but doesn’t give you a reason why the light bends.

But Fermat had a different way of looking at this. He asked, when light travels, out of all the different routes that it could possibly take, what if it chooses the quickest path possible for any given endpoint? What would that imply? And when he worked out the consequence of this guess, he found that out pops good old Snell’s law. Fermat’s guess fit perfectly with the observed behavior of light.* Here was a sensible explanation to light’s peculiar behavior—a hidden method to its madness.

And it isn’t just about how light bends. Fermat’s principle of least time also explains why light bounces symmetrically off a mirror, why the lenses in our glasses have the shapes that they do, or why dish antennas are parabolic. (You can learn about these neat applications from Feynman himself, in text or in video.)

If Fermat’s idea sounds a little strange to you, you’re not alone. One of the leading experts on light during Fermat’s time, Claude Clerselier, wrote the following,

Fermat’s principle can not be the cause, for otherwise we would be attributing knowledge to nature: [nature] acts without foreknowledge, without choice, but by a necessary determination.

What bothered everyone about Fermat’s idea is that it seemed to require agency. How could light choose a path? How could it possibly know which path was the fastest? Does it somehow sniff out the other paths? Fermat didn’t know it at the time, but the answer is yes. Here’s how Feynman puts it:

The principle of least time is a completely different philosophical principle about the way nature works. Instead of saying it is a causal thing, that when we do one thing, something else happens, and so on, it says this: we set up the situation, and light decides which is the shortest time, or the extreme one, and chooses that path. But what does it do, how does it find out? Does it smell the nearby paths, and check them against each other? The answer is, yes, it does, in a way.

Like light’s bizarre quantum behavior in demonstrations like the “quantum eraser,” this is very difficult to square with our intuitive understanding of how physics works on a human size scale. But experiments, along with the continued usefulness of glasses and parabolic dishes, dependably confirm that light does effectively sniff out and pick the shortest path available.

Recently I came across two stories of animals pulling off the same trick as lifeguards and light—getting from one place to another using the route that takes the least time. How they know to do this is a mystery.

Elvis may be small, but wait till you see him do calculus.Tim Pennings

The first creature is a dog, a Welsh corgi called Elvis who lived with a math professor named Tim Pennings. Tim would play with Elvis on the shore of Lake Michigan. He’d throw Elvis’s favorite tennis ball into the water, and Elvis would dart off and fetch it.

During this game of fetch, Tim noticed that Elvis was doing something interesting. When he threw the ball into the water, Elvis didn’t just leap into the surf and swim the whole way. Instead of choosing the direct path, Elvis would typically run along the shore, and then, at a certain point, he’d suddenly turn into the water and swim for the ball.

This raised a question in Tim’s mind: What if Elvis is taking the path of least time? Tim, being a math professor, sat down and used calculus to work out the optimal solution to the tennis-ball problem. Then he decided to test his idea out.

Aatish Bhatia

He spent a day with his dog at Lake Michigan, throwing tennis balls into the water, marking off and measuring the distances that Elvis ran along the shore and how far the ball traveled. After collecting 35 such data points (the x and y values in the figure above, in meters), he plotted them. Along with these data points, he also plotted the optimal trajectory, shown by the straight line below.

And indeed, Elvis did a pretty good job at finding the optimal path—he consistently chose the quickest possible route instead of the shortest one! Keep in mind that the mathematical model had to make many simplifying assumptions—that there are no currents in the water, that Elvis runs and swims at a constant speed without getting tired, that the shore is a straight line, and so on. In reality, it’s possible that Elvis was even quicker than the solution predicted by the model.

Courtney Gibbons / CC BY-NC-SA 3.0

Tim was impressed enough by Elvis’s trick to write a paper called “Do Dogs Know Calculus?” In it he reassures the reader that “Elvis does not know calculus…In fact,” Tim adds, “he has trouble differentiating even simple polynomials. More seriously, although he does not do the calculations, Elvis’s behavior is an example of the uncanny way in which nature often finds optimal solutions.”

(By the way, Elvis wasn’t the only canine optimizer. In another paper, two mathematicians corroborated that Salsa, a female Labrador, also chose the path of least time when playing catch along a lake in France. Maybe mathematicians’ dogs adopt some of their owners’ abilities?)

The second creature with this uncanny ability is one of the world’s most invasive species—the little fire ant, or Wasmannia auropunctata. Ants help each other navigate by leaving trails of pheromones as they travel, and over time, these trails converge on to a straight line from a food source to their nest. These little guys are natural optimizers, and they can even find the shortest path in a pretty complex maze.

But no one had really studied what happens when an ant faces the lifeguard dilemma. When it moves from a smooth surface (where it’s fast) to a really sticky one (where it’s slower), does it choose the direct path, or does it choose the path of least time?

So a group of research set out to test this, using a glass surface and a rough green felt surface, analogous to the sand and the water. They found that the ant trails were far closer to the quickest path than to the direct path. Like light and lifeguards, these ants seemed to minimize time and not distance.

When these ants travel from smooth glass to rough felt, they travel faster by bending in a manner similar to light.Simon Tragust / CC BY 3.0

But how do they do it? Surely they aren’t doing the math? The researchers suggested that perhaps by sheer luck some ants stray on to a faster route, and being more efficient, these routes get reinforced until they become the main route. But no one really knows how these ants solve the lifeguard’s dilemma. It’s still an open question.

Evolution is of course an optimizer, rewarding efficiency with increased representation in the gene pool. Clever and efficient strategies will reap the greatest rewards. Perhaps it shouldn’t surprise us, then, that very different creatures arrive at the same trick through very different means. So the next time you’re stuck in traffic trying to find the fastest way back home, maybe you should take a lesson from ants, dogs, or even light.


Footnote

*The modern statement of Fermat’s principle is that light chooses a path such that a small change in path length doesn’t affect the time of travel. In most cases, this reduces to the path of least time. Feynman’s lecture has more on this.

For the calculus-inclined reader: The paper above by Perruchet and Gallego devises a clever rule that dogs can follow to optimize their path, without needing any foreknowledge of the entire trajectory. It’s an interesting read. And here’s a derivation of how you can get to Snell’s law and the law of reflection from Fermat’s principle.

References

Feynman, Richard Phillips. QED: The strange theory of light and matter. Princeton University Press, 2006.

Pennings, Timothy J. “Do dogs know calculus?College Mathematics Journal 34.3 (2003): 178-182.

Perruchet, Pierre, and Jorge Gallego. “Do Dogs Know Related Rates Rather than Optimization?The College Mathematics Journal 37 (2006): 1.

Oettler, Jan, et al. “Fermat’s Principle of Least Time Predicts Refraction of Ant Trails at Substrate Borders.PloS One 8.3 (2013): e59739.

The chapter on The Principle of Least Time from the Feynman Lectures, which are now freely available online.

Aatish Bhatia is a recent physics Ph.D. working at Princeton University to bring science and engineering to a wider audience. He writes the award-winning science blog Empirical Zeal and is on Twitter as @aatishb.

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WATCH: The blackhole finding Stephen Hawking is famous for was discovered by Richard Feynman a year before on a blackboard.

Astrophysicist and novelist.” data-credits=”” style=“width:733px”>

This classic Facts So Romantic post was originally published in March 2014.



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Amazon’s Electric Dreams is more optimistic about the future than Black Mirror

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These days, it’s almost impossible to talk about any kind of science-fiction TV anthology without comparing it to Charlie Brooker’s future-fears series Black Mirror. It’s the question most SF fans and telephiles will immediately ask. The new Amazon Prime Video anthology Philip K. Dick’s Electric Dreams does have some comparison points to Brooker’s series, and it’s unlikely that either Amazon or its UK television partner, Channel 4, mind having their fledgling series mentioned alongside Netflix’s well-established, buzzy technological creepshow. But Electric Dreams is decidedly brighter than Black Mirror. Co-creators Ronald D. Moore and Michael Dinner are every bit as pessimistic as Brooker about how technology is going to transform the culture in the centuries ahead, but they have a lot more faith in the people who will still be around.

The 10 episodes of Electric Dreams’ first season (each roughly 50 minutes long) are driven more by grounded characters than far-out premises. Those who know Moore’s work shouldn’t be surprised. In his Battlestar Galactica remake and his Outlander adaptation, Moore has often just let wild fantasy be the backdrop for stories about the deepest yearnings and aspirations of human beings (or robots who look and act like human beings). And he falls into the usual pattern of science fiction, where most stories about the future are really about the present. In stories set a thousand years from now — or even 10 — the creators are usually extrapolating from current trends, and reflecting their own visions of where humanity’s headed. The stories in Electric Dreams are a snapshot of today, filtered through our collective hopes and fears.

Like Moore, Philip K. Dick based his science fiction in human longing. Even the best-known movie adaptations of his work — Blade Runner, Total Recall, Minority Report, A Scanner Darkly — put their spectacle in service of complex considerations of what animates us all, and ask, “How much is disappointment, injustice, and compulsion a necessary byproduct of being alive?”

The best Electric Dreams episodes make this theme fairly plain. The haunting “The Commuter” has more in common with The Twilight Zone than Black Mirror, as it follows a good-natured railway worker (played by great British character actor Timothy Spall) who discovers a town that isn’t on his maps. There, people who’ve had difficult lives get a chance to be happy. Because his biggest problem is a psychologically disturbed son, he gradually realizes that “escape” could cost him someone he loves. “Safe and Sound” (based on the story “Foster, You’re Dead!”) has Annalise Basso as a teenager from a socially suspect hippie community, who tries to fit in with her new big city classmates by wearing one of their Apple Watch-like tracking devices, but learns that thinking about security and conformity all the time makes her more paranoid… and less popular.

“Real Life” (scripted by Moore, adapting Dick’s “Exhibit Piece”) is the most overtly Dick-ian episode, conceptually. Anna Paquin and Terrence Howard play stressed-out professionals in different realities whose favorite method of recreation is to live vicariously through each other. The episode never fully clarifies whether one of them is fictional, or if they’re connecting across time and space. The “how” of “Real Life” matters less than the way it depicts a sort of melancholy ouroboros, with two people creating a feedback loop of dissatisfaction. Similarly, “The Hood Maker” derives its strong emotional pull from the tenuous bonds formed between a cop (Richard Madden) and a telepath (Holliday Grainger) who have been socialized to fear and resent each other.

Rachelle Lefevre and Anna Paquin in “Real Life”Photo by Elizabeth Sisson / Amazon Video

Unlike Black Mirror (or The Twilight Zone, for that matter), Electric Dreams doesn’t exactly excel at hooking viewers with plot. “Safe and Sound” and “The Hood Maker” are fairly full (as is the genuinely surprising “Autofac”), but episodes like “Impossible Planet,” “Crazy Diamond,” and “Father Thing” offer only mildly spooky situations, not nail-biting thrills. They’re low on suspense, and don’t build to any cruelly ironic twists or gasp-inducing revelations.

Instead, they offer remarkably strong performances. In “Impossible Planet,” the excellent young Irish actor Jack Reynor (so memorable in Glassland and Sing Street) plays a jaded interstellar tour guide, while Geraldine Chaplin is the dying aristocrat who’ll pay a fortune to get him to take her to a place that may no longer exist. “Crazy Diamond” (based on the story “Sales Pitch”) has Steve Buscemi as a scientist agreeing to help one of his company’s androids (played by Borgen / The Duke of Burgundy star Sidse Babett Knudsen) outlast her expiration date. In “Father Thing” (written and directed by Dinner), Greg Kinnear is an alien who’s taken the form of one skeptical suburban kid’s dad. Even when Electric Dreams’ episodes are flat and predictable — and frankly, “Father Thing” is both — they’re still well-acted.

Although each of these science-fiction mini-movies has a different writer-director team, and they all take place in different realities, there’s some uniformity to the presentation. The show as a whole tends to take its cues from an opening credits sequence and Harry Gregson-Williams theme song that are unabashedly retro in their vision of a future filled with electronic pleasures. With rare exceptions (like the noir-inflected “The Hood Maker” and the post-apocalyptic “Autofac”), the clothing and architecture doesn’t have that common Blade Runner grubbiness, even in tales that take place in dark times. Instead, characters travel in spaceships and live in cities that could’ve been copied over from the 1950s pulp magazines where Dick’s work first appeared.

Juno Temple and Janelle Monae in “Autofac”Photo by Parrish Lewis / Amazon Video

One of the must-see Electric Dreams episodes, “K.A.O.,” is a case in point. Written and directed by Mudbound’s Dee Rees (very loosely adapting Dick’s “The Hanging Stranger”), the episode stars Mel Rodriguez as an ordinary citizen of the gleaming mega-nation Mex-Us-Can, whose life is turned upside down when he hears his country’s lone presidential candidate casually say in a speech that she intends to “kill all others.” Initially surprised that no one else is freaking out over the comment, he soon learns that the more he protests that something’s amiss, the more he risks being labeled one of those “others.”

Rees is cleverly illustrating how easily an entire society can accept the unacceptable, so long as their basic needs are met and the people in charge seem to know what they’re doing. But she also emphasizes that even here, one person can stand up for what’s right.

That’s what makes Electric Dreams a little easier to take than Black Mirror, even though it’s generally less exciting. One of the key lines in the entire series comes toward the end of “The Commuter,” when Spall’s railway man sums up his life with his troubled son and admits, “There were moments of joy.” In this show’s vision of the world to come, no utopia is perfect, and no dystopia is unlivable. Both will ultimately depend a lot on the company we keep.

Steve Buscemi and Sidse Babett Knudsen in “Crazy Diamond”Photo by Christopher Raphael / Amazon Video

Ranking the episodes

Because Electric Dreams is an anthology, the episodes don’t follow any particular pattern or order. (In fact, judging by the early reviews, different critics got different episodes randomly labeled as “episode 1, “episode 2,” etc.) There are no outright terrible episodes, but for viewers with limited time, here’s a ranking of all 10 in descending order, from “watch as soon as you can” to “not bad if you have an hour to kill.”

1. “K.A.O.” A barbed political allegory, brought to life by a brilliant Mel Rodriguez performance and energetic filmmaking from writer-director Dee Rees.

2. “Safe and Sound” Contemporary relevance abounds in this story about a society that couches authoritarianism within technological convenience.

3. “The Commuter” A wistful atmosphere and a heartbreaking Timothy Spall define this meditation on why we can’t always get what we want.

4. “The Hood Maker” The most cinematic and narratively ambitious of these first 10 episodes plays like a mash-up of Blade Runner and Minority Report.

5. “Autofac” In which the remaining humans after a nuclear war (led by a resourceful rebel played by Juno Temple) fight against the automated factories and delivery drones (represented by a robotic Janelle Monae) that keep running after the end of the world.

6. “Human Is” Bryan Cranston (also one of the series’ executive producers) is scarily intense as a cruel military officer whose sudden change in personality after a mission on a hostile planet is both a blessing and a concern to his wife, played by The Babadook’s Essie Davis.

7. “Impossible Planet” Jack Reynor and Geraldine Chaplin flesh out a thin story, which asks whether it’s compassionate or exploitative to pretend to make someone’s dream come true.

8. “Real Life” Virtual reality offers an escape for two soulmates who don’t mind who they become, so long as they can stop being themselves for a little while.

9. “Crazy Diamond” Even the great Steve Buscemi and Sidse Babett Knudsen (plus a soundtrack featuring songs by Syd Barrett) can’t overcome the familiarity of this story about an artificial entity striving for survival.

10. “Father Thing” Another episode that’s overly generic, drawing on the usual “body snatcher” clichés.



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Fundamentals

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You may already have seen Jochen’s essay Four Verses from the Daodejingan entry in this year’s FQXi competition. It’s a thought-provoking piece, so here are a few of the ones it provoked in me. In general I think it features a mix of alarming and sound reasoning which leads to a true yet perplexing conclusion.

In brief Jochen suggests that we apprehend the world only through models; in fact our minds deal only with these models. Modelling and computation are in essence the same. However, the connection between model and world is non-computable (or we face an infinite regress). The connection is therefore opaque to our minds and inexpressible. Why not, then, identify it with that other inexpressible element of cognition, qualia? So qualia turn out to be the things that incomprehensibly link our mental models with the real world. When Mary sees red for the first time, she does learn a new, non-physical fact, namely what the connection between her mental model and real red is. (I’d have to say that as something she can’t understand or express, it’s a weird kind of knowledge, but so be it.)

I think to talk of modelling so generally is misleading, though Jochen’s definition is itself broadly framed, which means I can’t say he’s wrong. In his terms it seems anything that uses data about the structure and causal functioning of X to make predictions about its behaviour would be a model. If you look at it that way, it’s true that virtually all our cognition is modelling. But to me a model leads us to think of something more comprehensive and enduring than we ought. In my mind at least, it conjures up a sort of model village or homunculus, when what’s really going on is something more fragmentary and ephemeral, with the brain lashing up a ‘model’ of my going to the shop for bread just now and then discarding it in favour of something different. I’d argue that we can’t have comprehensive all-purpose models of ourselves (or anything) because models only ever model features relevant to a particular purpose or set of circumstances. If a model reproduced all my features it would in fact be me (by Leibniz’ Law) and anyway the list of potentially relevant features goes on for ever.

The other thing I don’t like about liberal use of modelling is that it makes us vulnerable to the view that we only experience the model, not the world. People have often thought things like this, but to me it’s almost like the idea we never see distant planets, only telescope lenses.

Could qualia be the connection between model and world? It’s a clever idea, one of those that turn out on reflection to not be vulnerable to many of the counterarguments that first spring to mind. My main problem is that it doesn’t seem right phenomenologically. Arguments from one’s own perception of phenomenology are inherently weak, but then we are sort of relying on phenomenology for our belief (if any) in qualia in the first place. A red quale doesn’t seem like a connection, more like a property of the red thing; I’m not clear why or how I would be aware of this connection at all.

However, I think Jochen’s final conclusion is both poignant and broadly true. He suggests that models can have fundamental aspects, the ones that define their essential functions – but the world is not under a similar obligation. It follows that there are no fundamentals about the world as a whole.

I think that’s very likely true, and I’d make a very similar kind of argument in terms of explanation. There are no comprehensive explanations. Take a carrot. I can explain its nutritional and culinary properties, its biology, its metaphorical use as a motivator, its supposed status as the favourite foodstuff of rabbits, and lots of other aspects; but there is no total explanation that will account for every property I can come up with; in the end there is only the carrot. A demand for an explanation of the entire world is automatically a demand for just the kind of total explanation that cannot exist.

Although I believe this, I find it hard to accept; it leaves my mind with an unscratched itch. If we can’t explain the world, how can we assimilate it? Through contemplation? Perhaps that would have been what Laozi would have advocated. More likely he would have told us to get on with ordinary life. Stop thinking, and end your problems!

 

 



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Construction firm with 43,000 employees goes under

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A major British construction company is going into liquidation after failing to secure a financial lifeline.

Carillion (CIOIF), which employs 43,000 people around the world, said in a statement Monday that rescue talks with stakeholders including the British government had collapsed.

"We have been unable to secure the funding to support our business plan, and it is therefore with the deepest regret that we have arrived at this decision," Carillion Chairman Philip Green said in the statement.

Carillion, which has roughly half its global workforce in Britain, has its roots in the construction business. But it also builds infrastructure for high speed rail and power distribution projects, and provides services to the government.

Green said that the U.K. government will provide funds to keep the company's public services, which include school lunches and prison management, in operation.

PricewaterhouseCoopers will oversee the firm's liquidation.



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Researchers finds that one person likely drove Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000

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Researchers Neil Gandal, JT Hamrick, Tyler Moore, and Tali Oberman have written a fascinating paper on Bitcoin price manipulation. Entitled “Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem” and appearing in the recent issue of the Journal of Monetary Economics the paper describes to what degree the Bitcoin ecosystem is controlled by bad actors.

To many it’s been obvious that the Bitcoin markets are, at the very least, being manipulated by one or two big players. “This paper identifies and analyzes the impact of suspicious trading activity on the Mt. Gox Bitcoin currency exchange, in which approximately 600,000 bitcoins (BTC) valued at $188 million were fraudulently acquired,” the researchers wrote. “During both periods, the USD-BTC exchange rate rose by an average of four percent on days when suspicious trades took place, compared to a slight decline on days without suspicious activity. Based on rigorous analysis with extensive robustness checks, the paper demonstrates that the suspicious trading activity likely caused the unprecedented spike in the USD-BTC exchange rate in late 2013, when the rate jumped from around $150 to more than $1,000 in two months.”

The team found that many instances of price manipulation happened simply because the market was very thin for various cryptocurrencies including early Bitcoin. “Despite the huge increase in market capitalization, similar to the bitcoin market in 2013 (the period examined), markets for these other cryptocurrencies are very thin. The number of cryptocurrencies has increased from approximately 80 during the period examined to 843 today! Many of these markets are thin and subject to price manipulation.”

The manipulation happened primarily via two bots, Markus and Willy, that seemed to be performing valid trades but did not actually own the bitcoin they were using. During the Mt. Gox hack a number of these bots were able to create fake trades and make off with millions while manipulating the price of BTC.

The publicly reported trading volume at Mt. Gox included the fraudulent transactions, thereby signaling to the market that heavy trading activity was taking place. Indeed, the paper later shows that even if the fraudulent activity is set aside, average trading volume on all major exchanges trading bitcoins and USD was much higher on days the bots were active. The associated increase in “non-bot” trading was, of course, profitable for Mt. Gox, since it collected transaction fees.

But the Willy Bot likely served another purpose as well. A theory, initially espoused in a Reddit post shortly after Mt. Gox’s collapse (Anonymous, 2014b), is that hackers stole a huge number (approximately 650,000) of bitcoins from Mt. Gox in June 2011 and that the exchange owner Mark Karpales took extraordinary steps to cover up the loss for several years.

The bottom line is simple: if Bitcoin wants to be taken seriously it probably should be this easy or legal to manipulate the markets. While decentralization is supposed to replace regulation it’s clear that there is still a way to go before it can be truly taken seriously. “As mainstream finance invests in cryptocurrency assets and as countries take steps toward legalizing bitcoin as a payment system (as Japan did in April 2017), it is important to understand how susceptible cryptocurrency markets are to manipulation. Our study provides a first examination,” write the researchers.

Featured Image: Bryce Durbin


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