Meanwhile, At Hillary Clinton's Headquarters: Tragedy

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-09/meanwhile-hillary-clintons-headquarters-tragedy

It was supposed to be a night of joy, celebrations and breaking "glass ceilings." It is now nothing short of tragedy.

despite a palpable buzz in the air at the start of the evening, the crowd grew quiet as the swing states of North Carolina and Florida went to the Republican presidential nominee. Michigan, New Hampshire and Wisconsin all look as though they could swing for Trump, as well. Pardon, president Trump.

“I feel nauseous,” one top campaign official for Clinton told People before slipping behind a black curtain beyond which reporters were barred.



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Donald Trump would have lost if Bernie Sanders had been the candidate

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/presidential-election-donald-trump-would-have-lost-if-bernie-sanders-had-been-the-candidate-a7406346.html

“Right now in every major poll, national poll and statewide poll done in the last month, six weeks, we are defeating Trump often by big numbers, and always at a larger margin than Secretary Clinton is.”

So spoke Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton’s Democratic rival in the primary, when he appeared on the May 29 2016 edition of NBC’s 'Meet the Press'.

It was not the first time the socialist former Mayor of Burlington had made the claim. And it was something that his supporters believed passionately. 

Time after time, supporters of the white-haired, frequently cantankerous Democratic socialist, said the media was helping prepare a coronation for Ms Clinton in a way that was neither fair or democratic.

At a rally in the Bronx, New York, in April, Paul Nagel, 58, a gay rights and housing activist, told The Independent that Mr Sanders would go into the Oval Office on the back of a popular movement and that he could continue to listen to the people. “What we’re seeing now feels 1969,” he said. 

At rallies for the 74-year-old across the country, there was a sense of euphoria and excitement that simply did not exist at those for Ms Clinton. Ms Clinton’s supporters said they had made a calculation to vote for her as they believed she would be the best candidate to lead the country, but there was no sense of the passion witnessed at her rivals events, or those of Barack Obama eight years earlier.

But it was not just anecdotal evidence. A series of polls suggested that Mr Sanders - with his calls for free college tuition, the removal of student debt, a national health service and the removal of big money from politics - would stand a better chance against Mr Trump than Ms Clinton.

A poll by NBC News-Wall Street Journal on May 15 said Ms Clitnon would beat Mr Trump by three points, but said Mr Sanders would win by 15 points.

A CBS News-New York Times on May 3 gave Ms Clinton a six point advantage over Mr Trump, but said Mr Sanders would win by 13 points.

At the same time, Fox News said Ms Clinton would lose to Ms Clinton by three points, but said Mr Sanders would win by four.



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Here's the full text of Donald Trump's victory speech - CNN

http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&ct2=us&usg=AFQjCNFOFWtjtt0VWrkI2PJ_d47VHyglkw&clid=c3a7d30bb8a4878e06b80cf16b898331&cid=52779266647255&ei=UhAjWNCMAcvZuAKqoomYDw&url=http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/09/politics/donald-trump-victory-speech/index.html?sr%3DtwCNN110916donald-trump-victory-speech1024AMStoryLink%26linkId%3D30960247


Thank you. Thank you very much, everybody. Sorry to keep you waiting. Complicated business. Complicated. Thank you very much.

I've just received a call from Secretary Clinton. She congratulated us. It's about us. On our victory, and I congratulated her and her family on a very, very hard-fought campaign.

I mean, she fought very hard. Hillary has worked very long and very hard over a long period of time, and we owe her a major debt of gratitude for her service to our country.

I mean that very sincerely. Now it is time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people.

It is time. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be President for all of Americans, and this is so important to me. For those who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people, I'm reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so that we can work together and unify our great country.

As I've said from the beginning, ours was not a campaign but rather an incredible and great movement, made up of millions of hard-working men and women who love their country and want a better, brighter future for themselves and for their family.

It is a movement comprised of Americans from all races, religions, backgrounds, and beliefs, who want and expect our government to serve the people -- and serve the people it will.

Working together, we will begin the urgent task of rebuilding our nation and renewing the American dream. I've spent my entire life in business, looking at the untapped potential in projects and in people all over the world.

That is now what I want to do for our country. Tremendous potential. I've gotten to know our country so well. Tremendous potential. It is going to be a beautiful thing. Every single American will have the opportunity to realize his or her fullest potential.

The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer.

We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. We're going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it.

We will also finally take care of our great veterans who have been so loyal, and I've gotten to know so many over this 18-month journey.The time I've spent with them during this campaign has been among my greatest honors. Our veterans are incredible people.

We will embark upon a project of national growth and renewal. I will harness the creative talents of our people, and we will call upon the best and brightest to leverage their tremendous talent for the benefit of all. It is going to happen.

We have a great economic plan. We will double our growth and have the strongest economy anywhere in the world. At the same time, we will get along with all other nations willing to get along with us. We will be. We will have great relationships. We expect to have great, great relationships.

No dream is too big, no challenge is too great. Nothing we want for our future is beyond our reach.

America will no longer settle for anything less than the best. We must reclaim our country's destiny and dream big and bold and daring. We have to do that. We're going to dream of things for our country, and beautiful things and successful things once again.

I want to tell the world community that while we will always put America's interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone, with everyone. All people and all other nations.

We will seek common ground, not hostility; partnership, not conflict.

And now I would like to take this moment to thank some of the people who really helped me with this, what they are calling tonight a very, very historic victory.

First, I want to thank my parents, who I know are looking down on me right now. Great people. I've learned so much from them. They were wonderful in every regard. Truly great parents.

I also want to thank my sisters, Marianne and Elizabeth, who are here with us tonight. Where are they? They're here someplace. They're very shy, actually.

And my brother Robert, my great friend. Where is Robert? Where is Robert?

My brother Robert, and they should be on this stage, but that's okay. They're great.

And also my late brother Fred, great guy. Fantastic guy. Fantastic family. I was very lucky.

Great brothers, sisters, great, unbelievable parents.

To Melania and Don and Ivanka and Eric and Tiffany and Barron, I love you and I thank you, and especially for putting up with all of those hours. This was tough.

This was tough. This political stuff is nasty, and it is tough.

So I want to thank my family very much. Really fantastic. Thank you all. Thank you all. Lara, unbelievable job. Unbelievable. Vanessa, thank you. Thank you very much. What a great group.

You've all given me such incredible support, and I will tell you that we have a large group of people. You know, they kept saying we have a small staff. Not so small. Look at all of the people that we have. Look at all of these people.

And Kellyanne and Chris and Rudy and Steve and David. We have got tremendously talented people up here, and I want to tell you it's been very, very special.

I want to give a very special thanks to our former mayor, Rudy Giuliani. He's unbelievable. Unbelievable. He traveled with us and he went through meetings, and Rudy never changes. Where is Rudy. Where is he?

Gov. Chris Christie, folks, was unbelievable. Thank you, Chris. The first man, first senator, first major, major politician. Let me tell you, he is highly respected in Washington because he is as smart as you get.

Sen. Jeff Sessions. Where is Jeff? A great man. Another great man, very tough competitor. He was not easy. He was not easy. Who is that? Is that the mayor that showed up? Is that Rudy?

Up here. Really a friend to me, but I'll tell you, I got to know him as a competitor because he was one of the folks that was negotiating to go against those Democrats, Dr. Ben Carson. Where's Ben? Where is Ben? By the way, Mike Huckabee is here someplace, and he is fantastic. Mike and his family Sarah, thank you very much. Gen. Mike Flynn. Where is Mike? And Gen. Kellogg. We have over 200 generals and admirals that have endorsed our campaign and they are special people.

We have 22 Congressional Medal of Honor people. A very special person who, believe me, I read reports that I wasn't getting along with him. I never had a bad second with him. He's an unbelievable star. He is ... that's right, how did you possibly guess? Let me tell you about Reince. I've said Reince. I know it. I know it. Look at all of those people over there. I know it, Reince is a superstar. I said, they can't call you a superstar, Reince, unless we win it. Like Secretariat. He would not have that bust at the track at Belmont.

Reince is really a star and he is the hardest-working guy, and in a certain way I did this. Reince, come up here. Get over here, Reince.

Boy, oh, boy, oh, boy. It's about time you did this right. My god. Nah, come here. Say something.

Amazing guy. Our partnership with the RNC was so important to the success and what we've done, so I also have to say, I've gotten to know some incredible people.

The Secret Service people. They're tough and they're smart and they're sharp and I don't want to mess around with them, I can tell you. And when I want to go and wave to a big group of people and they rip me down and put me back down in the seat, but they are fantastic people so I want to thank the Secret Service.

And law enforcement in New York City, they're here tonight. These are spectacular people, sometimes underappreciated unfortunately. We appreciate them.

So it's been what they call a historic event, but to be really historic, we have to do a great job, and I promise you that I will not let you down. We will do a great job. We will do a great job. I look very much forward to being your president, and hopefully at the end of two years or three years or four years or maybe even eight years you will say so many of you worked so hard for us, with you. You will say that -- you will say that that was something that you were -- really were very proud to do and I can — thank you very much.

And I can only say that while the campaign is over, our work on this movement is now really just beginning. We're going to get to work immediately for the American people, and we're going to be doing a job that hopefully you will be so proud of your President. You will be so proud. Again, it's my honor.

It's an amazing evening. It's been an amazing two-year period, and I love this country. Thank you.

Thank you very much. Thank you to Mike Pence.



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GMO's Grantham Warns Of "Dismal Consequences" For Investors In A World Where Bubbles Don't Burst

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-08/gmos-grantham-warns-dismal-consequences-investors-world-where-bubbles-dont-burst

The first time GMO's Geremy Grantham proposed the 2,250 "bubble bogey" in the S&P, was May of 2014. As readers may recall, in an article "How And When The Bubble Finally Bursts: Jeremy Grantham's Take" the famous asset manager laid out what he believes is the maximum level for the S&P before a bubble burst is finally triggered, is roughly 2,250, roughly a 2-standard-deviation (2-sigma) point on historical data that has effectively separated real bubbles from mere bull markets.

Today, in a note, musing on the fate of the stock market bubble (full letter below), Grantham appears to have changed his mind, and no longer expects a "traditional bubble burst", instead believes that the the S&P will fizzle in a "Japanese scenario" where it slowly, painfully grinds lower: "for bubble historians eager to see pins used on bubbles and spoiled by the prevalence of bubbles in the last 30 years, it is tempting to see them too often. Well, the US market today is not a classic bubble, not even close." He adds that the "market is unlikely to go “bang” in the way those bubbles did. It is far more likely that the mean reversion will be slow and incomplete."

In other words, a world in which bubbles grow and grow, but never burst, and merely deflate. While superficially that sounds like great news, according to Grantham for most investors it is actually very bad news:

The consequences are dismal for investors: we are likely to limp into the setting sun with very low returns. For bubble historians, though, it is heartbreaking for there will be no histrionics, no chance of being a real hero. Not this time.

Maybe he is right. On the other hand, in a world in which even the smallest dip in the US stock market has to be countered by more aggressive expansions of central bank balance sheets, and where central banks are running out of firepower, we would not be so confident that the "bubbles of yore" are gone for ever.

That said, if Grantham is right, and there is no violent burst, that also means his bubble bogey target is, as he puts it, a "red herring".

The 2300 level on the S&P 500, which marks the 2-standard-deviation (2-sigma) point on historical data that has effectively separated real bubbles from mere bull markets, is in this case quite possibly a red herring. It is comparing today’s much higher pricing environment to history’s far lower levels. I have made much of the convenience of 2-sigma in the past as it has brought some apparent precision to the more touchy-feely definition of a true bubble: excellent fundamentals irrationally extrapolated. Now, when this definition conflicts with the 2-sigma measurement – ironically, it was chosen partly because it had never conflicted before – I apparently prefer the less statistical test. But you can imagine the trepidation with which I do this.

But while the equity market is less of a concern to the famous investors, there is another asset that is more troubling:

Hidden by the great bubbles of 2000 and 2007, another, much slower-burning but perhaps even more powerful force, has been exerting itself: a 35-year downward move in rates (see Exhibit 1), which, with persistent help from the Fed over the last 20 years and a shift in the global economy, has led to a general drop in the discount rate applied to almost all assets. They now all return 2-2.5% less than they did in the 1955 to 1995 era (or, as far as we can tell from incomplete data, from 1900 to 1995). This broad shift in available returns gives rise to the question of what constitutes fair value in this changed world; will prices regress back toward the more traditional levels? And if they do, will it be fast or slow?

Ah yes, the real question that matters: if and when central bankers deflate the bond bubble of the past three and a half decades, how will they keep yield from "regressing" in a stable fashion, without losing control of the long end? That may be the true $64 trillion question.

Grantham then poses another just as important question: whether abnormally high US profit margins will also regress, and, if so, by how much and how fast? "

Counterintuitively, it turns out that the implications for the next 20 years for pension funds and others are oddly similar whether the market crashes in 2 years, falls steadily over 7 years, or whimpers sideways for 20 years. The real difference in these flight paths will be, of course, over the short term. Are we going to have our pain from regression to the mean in an intense 2-year burst, a steady 7-year decline, or a drawn-out 20-year whimper?"

Grantham then leaves the reader off with some 37 observations on why the bubble will end with a "whimper" not a bang: "The caveat here is that while I am very confident in saying that we are not in a traditional bubble today, all the other arguments below are more in the nature of thought experiments or, less grandly, simply thinking aloud. I am asking you – especially you value managers – to think through with me some of these varied possibilities and their implications."

Below we present Grantham's first 8 cases for a "whimper, not a bang"

  1. Classic investment bubbles require abnormally favorable fundamentals in areas such as productivity, technology, employment, and capacity utilization. They usually require a favorable geo-political environment as well. But these very favorable factors alone are not enough.
  2. Investment bubbles also require investor euphoria. This euphoria is typically represented by a willingness to extrapolate the abnormally favorable fundamental conditions into the distant future.
  3. The euphoric phases of these epic bull markets have tended to rise at an accelerating rate in the final two to three years and to fall even faster. Exhibit 2 shows four of my all-time favorites. True euphoric bubbles have no sound economic underpinning and so are particularly vulnerable to sudden bursting when some unexpected bad news occurs or when selling just starts… “comes in from the country” as they said in 1929
  4. We have been extremely spoiled in the last 30 years by experiencing 4 of perhaps the best 8 classic bubbles known to history. For me, the order of seniority is, from the top: Japanese land, Japanese stocks in 1989, US tech stocks in 2000, and US housing, which peaked in 2006 and shared the stage with both the broadest international equity overpricing (over 1-sigma) ever recorded and a risk/return line for assets that appeared to slope backwards for the first time in history – investors actually paid for the privilege of taking risk.
  5. What did these four bubbles have in common? Lots of euphoria and unbelievable things that were widely believed: Yes, the land under the Emperor’s Palace really did equal the real estate value of California. The Japanese market was cheap at 65x said the hit squad from Solomon Bros. Their work proved that with their low bond rates, the P/E should have been 100. The US tech stocks were 65x. Internet stocks sold at many multiples of sales despite a collective loss and Greenspan (hiss) explained how the Internet would usher in a new golden age of growth, not the boom and bust of productivity that we actually experienced. And most institutional investment committees believed it or half believed it! And US house prices, said Bernanke in 2007, “had never declined,” meaning they never would, and everyone believed him. Indeed, the broad public during these four events, two in Japan and two in the US, appeared to believe most or all of it. As did the economic and financial establishments, especially for the two US bubbles. Certainly only mavericks spoke against them.
  6. Let me ask you: How does that level of euphoria, of wishful thinking, of general acceptance, compare to today’s stock market in the US? Not very well. The market lacks both the excellent fundamentals and the euphoria required to unreasonably extrapolate it.
  7. Current fundamentals are way below optimal – trend line growth and productivity are at such low levels that the usually confident economic establishment is at an obvious loss to explain why. Capacity utilization is well below peak and has been falling. There is plenty of available labor hiding in the current low participation rate (at a price). House building is also far below normal.
  8. Classic bubbles have always required that the geopolitical world is at least acceptable, more usually well above average. Today’s, in contrast, you can easily agree is unusually nerve-wracking.

The full letter which includes GMO's full list of 37 "cases for a whimper" is below (pdf link)



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Political Ad Of The Year?

http://ift.tt/2fsiUgV

While most wait to see if The Clinton campaign is truly out of ammo in the shit-slinging competition known as the election campaign, we, like many others, had been wondering if Trump was also planning some sort of special closing argument.
As Dilbert Creator Scott Adams exhalts "he did not disappoint. In my opinion, his final ad is the political ad of the year, if not the best ever."

Here's what Adams believes makes this ad so special...

1. Trump delivers his lines perfectly, like an experienced actor. We haven’t heard him like this before. You probably didn’t think he had this in him. He stays calm and assured, but not cocky. That is an effective counter-framing to Clinton’s framing of Trump as an unpredictable madman. Here Trump comes off as perfectly reasonable and deeply empathetic.

 

2. The timing is perfect. This race went so low that even the trolls were starting to gasp for oxygen. Trump made us wait for relief – Hollywood style. He made us crave civility and sanity. And just when we thought it was out of reach, he goes ultra-positive. But here’s the best part. Clinton has no good options to counter this message. If she stays dark, Trump finishes as the inspirational one. If she tries to match his positive message, she has little chance of doing it this well.

 

3. While Obama is out talking about his legacy, and Clinton is out talking about making history as the first woman president, Trump (the narcissist) asks for the American people’s help in draining the swamp and making America great again. That’s one heckuva contrast to end on.

 

4. The writing for Trump’s speech is great. The editing is great. The production is great. The visual artistry is fantastic. This one will be studied for a long time, not only for its persuasion excellence and production values but also for its strategic timing.

 

5. Trump’s strongest message at this point is that Clinton is corrupt in a variety of hard-to-explain ways. People don’t need to understand the details. They just have to hear the message enough. This video uses visual persuasion perfectly to portray the halls of power and corruption versus the people united. The color red is exceptionally well-used. It activates us.

Adams concludes presciently: "You just witnessed something special. "

Read more here...

If you enjoyed Trump's video you may enjoy Adams' book.



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The Daily 202: Rural strategy takes Trump to very red places in final days - Washington Post

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Donald Trump speaks at The Farm in Selma, North Carolina, last night. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

With Breanne Deppisch

THE BIG IDEA: 

SELMA, N.C.—As he barnstorms the country in the final days of the campaign, Donald Trump has made a notable number of stops in relatively out-of-the-way places like this one, most of which are already guaranteed to break heavily for Republicans.

After his motorcade traveled 47 miles from the Raleigh airport last night, the GOP nominee spoke to an energetic crowd of 15,000 during an outdoor rally on a farm in this town of 6,000.

Mitt Romney carried Johnston County with 63.4 percent four years ago, but the former Massachusetts governor only received 48,000 of his 2.3 million votes in North Carolina from here.

Donald’s advisers believe he can win over rural whites by a much bigger margin than Mitt and come away with significantly more votes, which they gamble will offset his weakness among suburban Republicans. They believe off-the-charts turnout in the country will tip the balance in a battleground state that remains a true toss-up.

A week ago Wednesday, Trump went to Kinston – in the coastal plains region of Eastern North Carolina. The population is 21,000. Earlier yesterday afternoon, on the other side of the state, Trump spoke in Concord, on the periphery of the Charlotte metro area, in a county Romney won with 60 percent.

Many savvy Republican operatives are puzzled by these scheduling decisions. They just don’t think there are that many additional votes to net, and they believe Trump should be focusing more on shoring up recalcitrant Republicans who might be amenable to coming home in the wake of the FBI announcement about new emails in the Hillary Clinton investigation.

I’ve written several times about Trump’s time management problem, from the ribbon cutting for his new D.C. hotel last week to his Albuquerque visit on Sunday. Remember when he wasted a week campaigning in California in June? Or when he held a big rally in Mississippi this August? Or when he went to his golf course in Scotland? In this case, there is a more legitimate – even if ill-advised – theory of the case. Polonius might even say there a method in the madness.

A supporter in Selma (Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA)

-- Trump supporters who live in the rural areas which Trump has lavished with attention predict it will pay huge dividends and fuel what they expect to be a landslide victory next Tuesday. Fifteen voters I interviewed at Trump’s rally made this point:

Neal Brantley did not vote for Romney in 2012 because he perceived him as too moderate. He wrote in Ron Paul’s name instead. Asked if locals are more excited about 2016 than past elections, the 76-year-old fence builder stretched out his arms as wide as they would go. “I never heard anything I would call ‘enthusiasm’ before now,” he said. “It’s the difference between this point and this point.”

Brantley is also a leader in the local chapter of the Sons of Confederate Veterans and likes to wear a replica of Robert E. Lee’s uniform. Because he has a white beard, he said many people tell him that he looks just like the Civil War commander. “How much smaller a town can you get than here? This is truly real America right here,” he said.

Tracy Haas, 43, a business manager for a nonprofit, said it is “mind blowing” that Trump would come here – in a good way. “It was genius of him,” she said. “People on the Democrat side probably laughed at him because it’s little ole Selma, but it was so genius. I mean we’re on a farm, and that’s what Johnston County is all about – the country.”

“It means so much that he’s here,” added Judy Bennett, 47, a property manager who lives a mile down the road. “It puts our county on the map. A potential president of the United States has been here now! Hillary would never come because we’re not important enough to her. She doesn’t care about us.”

A little boy watches Trump here last night. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

-- Review Trump’s schedule, and you’ll see how this strategy is manifesting itself far beyond North Carolina: On Wednesday, he went to Pensacola, Florida. He stumped in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, on Tuesday, instead of the Milwaukee suburbs, where’s he badly underperforming and needs to shore up soft Republicans. On Sunday, it was Greeley, Colorado. Last Thursday, it was Springfield, Ohio. He’s also invested time trying to win one electoral vote from rural Maine.

The National Rifle Association, the conservative outside group that has been most helpful to Trump, has trained its advertising fire on these same rural voters in target states, including North Carolina.

Check out the word "Hillary" on Trump's teleprompter last night. (Carlo Allegri/Reuters)

-- For Trump, vanity might also be a factor. The reality TV star draws energy from large, raucous audiences. His advance guys have an easier time building crowds in places like Selma.

Literally, the loudest cheers last night came when Trump talked about the size of his crowd. He did it three times during a 45-minute speech. “Even the pundits, even the ones that don’t like me, say there’s never been anything like this. You just take a look at this field,” he said. “We’re just five days away from the change you’ve been waiting for your entire life. … You are going to remember this night as a very important night.”

Eileen LePage, 47, said she could not bring herself to vote for Romney last time because he is too much of a squishy politician, but she cannot wait to go vote for Trump. Though she lives in Selma, she said even here there is “a stigma” attached to publicly supporting him. Her sons were nervous they’d be called racists at school by the African American students. And she worried about how the Mexican immigrants who attend her Catholic parish might respond. But seeing so many members of the local community – though virtually all white -- was exhilarating and even liberating.

The speech was immediately followed by a fireworks show. The crowd chanted U-S-A, and the lyrics “you can’t always get what you want” blared over the loudspeakers. At the exit, a vendor sold target practice sheets with a bullseye over Clinton’s head for $2 – “or three for $5.” He also hawked buttons that said, “Cubs win. Trump wins.”

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:

-- America’s labor market continues to show signs of gradual strengthening, with newly released government data showing the economy added 161,000 jobs last month. From Ana Swanson reports: “Annual wage growth surged to levels not seen since before the financial crisis, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.9 percent in October from 5 percent the previous month. Economists … had expected U.S. employers to add 173,000 new jobs in October, roughly on pace with average monthly job gains over the course of the year. The final piece of economic data released before the presidential election on Tuesday, the jobs report showed an economy that is steadily emerging from the shadow of the Great Recession.”

A crowd of about 5,500 watched Hillary, Bernie and Pharrell at Coastal Credit Union Music Park in Raleigh last night. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

-- Our Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll gives Clinton a three-point edge over Trump nationally, 47 to 44 percent. The poll finds the popular vote could be amazingly similar to 2012, when Obama won by a four-point margin. From our in-house pollsters Scott Clement and Emily Guskin:

  • Trump holds a clear 48-39 percent advantage on who is best "to deal with corruption in government."
  • Trump leads with independents by eight points in the latest wave (47-39). That mirrors Romney's 5-point win with the group.
  • Twenty-nine percent believe the most important issue is the economy. That’s followed by corruption in government, terrorism and national security, health care and immigration.

Megyn Kelly poses for a portrait in New York. Her book "Settle For More" comes out on Nov. 15. (Victoria Will/Invision/AP, File)

-- Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly reportedly alleges in her new memoir that Roger Ailes tried to sexually assault her in his New York office and hinted that she would be fired when she “pushed him away.” Radar Online’s Sharon Churcher got an early look at the book: “Kelly claims he started to harass her in the summer of 2005, a few months after she was hired as a legal correspondent in Fox’s Washington bureau. She writes that she was informed by her managing editor that she’d ‘captured the attention of Mr. Ailes’ and she was summoned to the first of a series of meetings in his Manhattan office. ‘Roger began pushing the limits,’ she alleges. ‘There was a pattern to his behavior. I would be called into Roger’s office, he would shut the door, and over the next hour or two, he would engage in a kind of cat-and-mouse game with me.’” The now 76-year-old offered to advance her career “in exchange for sexual favors,” Radar reports. In 2006, she says he began trying to kiss her on the lips – and when she refused, asked her when her contract was up. “And then, for the third time, he tried to kiss me,” Kelly writes. "Mr. Ailes denies her allegations of sexual harrassment or misconduct of any kind," lawyer Susan Estrich says in a statement.

Children play next to a burning oil field south of Mosul. (Felipe Dana/AP)

GET SMART FAST:​​

  1. Thousands of residents poured out of eastern Mosul, escaping for the first time since ISIS wrested control of the city more than two years ago. Streams of giddy civilians – including women who ripped off their hair covers with glee and shepherds who pushed herds of sheep from the war zone – began heading towards newly-constructed camps in the area. Officials say more than 1.2 million civilians are still trapped in the city. (William Booth and Loveday Morris)
  2. Federal investigators ruled that Penn State should pay $2.4 million for multiple violations of campus safety laws, stemming from a five-year probe of former assistant football coach Jerry Sandusky’s sexual abuse of minors. If upheld, the Education Department’s fine would be the largest by far since the law was enacted more than 25 years ago. (Nick Anderson)
  3. The Supreme Court stayed the execution of an Alabama death row inmate, just hours before the man’s scheduled lethal injection. The high court’s decision marked the seventh time that Thomas Arthur — a 74-year-old who was convicted of murder in 1982—faced an execution date that was called off. (Mark Berman)
  4. A U.S. Park Police officer accidentally shot himself in the foot while fending off a raccoon attack in Rock Creek Park. The cop said he was attacked by the furry critter around noon on Thursday and was then transported to the hospital. (Justin Wm. Moyer)
  5. South Korean President Park Geun-hye issued a national apology over a mounting political crisis involving a so-called “shadow aide,” saying she would submit to an investigation of her administration. “All this is my fault,” she said. (Anna Fifield)
  6. More than 800,000 Haitians are still in desperate need of humanitarian help after Hurricane Matthew pummeled the country last month, the U.N. said. And as aid to the area stalls, residents have grown increasingly ravenous -- looting trucks and violently fighting over supplies. At least one boy was killed in the fracas last week. (Nick Miroff)
  7. A new CDC report finds that the Zika virus is linked to a specific cluster of birth defects in children, being dubbed “congenital Zika syndrome.” The syndrome covers five specific problems rarely – if ever – seen with other infections and drives home the severe effects caused by the mosquito-borne disease. (Lena H. Sun)
  8. Researchers think they have found a new use for polio drugs -- using them to treat acute flaccid myelitis, a mysterious paralyzing disease that has affected more than 100 children this year. Some doctors suspect the two illnesses are in the same family of diseases. (Dan Hurley)
  9. The SEC is now investigating Wells Fargo over its sham account scandal, working to determine whether the bank misled investors by not disclosing that 5,300 employees were fired in connection with setting up unauthorized accounts. (Renae Merle)
  10. Middle school students are now just as likely to die from suicide as they are from traffic accidents, according to a horrifying new CDC study. Some believe the rising pervasiveness of social media may be a factor. (New York Times)
  11. Harvard announced it will cancel the remainder of its men’s soccer season, after officials discovered that athletes were continuing to produce vulgar and explicit “scouting reports” rating women on physical appearance and sexual appeal. The dean also ordered a legal investigation into the matter. (Harvard Crimson)
  12. A nationally-known con man who posed as a high school student at age 26 before faking his way into a Princeton scholarship in the 1980s was arrested this week in Aspen. Officials found him living in an illegally-built shack on the side of a ski mountain. (AP)
  13. A South Carolina woman reported missing in August was found locked in a 30-foot shipping container this week. Police said she was “chained like a dog” and yelling for help. She told authorities that she has been kept captive there for more than two months. (WYFF-4)
  14. Fans of Trader Joe’s often laud its friendly employees, known for cheerfully handing out samples. But some ousted workers are complaining of safety lapses and mistreatment from the company – including one former employee who says he was fired for lacking a “genuine” smile. (New York Times)

Russian President Vladimir Putin confers with then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at the APEC summit in Vladivostok, Russia, in September 2012. (Mikhail Metzel/AP/Pool)

IMPORTANT READS ON RUSSIA: 

-- “From ‘reset’ to ‘pause’: The real story behind Hillary Clinton’s feud with Vladimir Putin,” by Joby Warrick and Karen DeYoung: “In one of her last acts as secretary of state in early 2013, [Clinton] wrote a confidential memo to the White House on how to handle Vladimir Putin. ... Her bluntly worded advice: Snub him. ‘Don’t appear too eager to work together,’ Clinton urged. … ‘Don’t flatter Putin with high-level attention. Decline his invitation for a presidential summit.’ It was harsh advice coming from the administration’s top diplomat, and Obama would ignore key parts of it. But the memo succinctly captured a personal view about Putin on the part of the future Democratic presidential nominee: a deep skepticism, informed by bitter experience, that would be likely to define U.S.-Russian relations if Clinton is elected. Her lasting conclusion, as she would acknowledge, was that 'strength and resolve were the only language Putin would understand.' For Clinton, the rhetoric reflects genuine disappointment and frustration from a tumultuous term as secretary of state during which cooperation between Moscow and Washington briefly soared, only to come crashing to Earth after Putin’s reelection."

-- U.S. intelligence agencies do not see Russia as capable of using cyberespionage to alter the outcome of next week’s presidential election, BUT they are warning that Moscow may continue meddling even after the voting has ended to sow doubts about legitimacy and extend political turbulence. From Greg Miller and Adam Entous: “U.S. security officials have not ruled out Russian-sponsored disruption on Election Day. In recent weeks, officials at the [DHS] have collected evidence of apparent Russian ‘scanning’ of state-run databases and computer voting systems. ‘Whether they were really trying hard to get in, it’s not clear,’ a U.S. official said. Still, the decentralized nature of U.S. polling would make it extraordinarily difficult to subvert a nationwide race. Instead, U.S. officials said it is more likely that Russia would use hacking tools to expose or fabricate signs of vote-rigging, aiming to delegitimize an election outcome that [Trump] has said he may refuse to accept if he does not win."

-- Facebook must fix this --> “How MACEDONIA Became A Global Hub For Pro-Trump Misinformation,” by BuzzFeed's Craig Silverman and Lawrence Alexander: “’This is the news of the millennium!’ said the story on WorldPoliticus.com. Citing unnamed FBI sources, it claimed [Clinton] will be indicted in 2017 for crimes related to her email scandal. ‘Your Prayers Have Been Answered,’ declared the headline. For Trump supporters, that certainly seemed to be the case. They helped the baseless story generate over 140,000 [Facebook shares] … Meanwhile, roughly 6,000 miles away in a small Macedonian town, a young man watched as money began trickling into his Google AdSense account. Over the past year, the central Macedonian town of Veles (population 45,000) has experienced a digital gold rush as locals launched at least 140 US politics websites. These sites have American-sounding domain names [and] almost all publish aggressively pro-Trump content aimed at conservatives."

The young Macedonians who run these sites don’t care about Trump. Their motivations are purely economic: "As Facebook earning reports show, a U.S. Facebook user is worth about four times a non-U.S. user. Several teens said they learned the best way to generate traffic is to get their stories to spread on Facebook — and the best way to generate Facebook shares to publish sensationalist -- often false -- content catering to Trump supporters. 'Yes, the info in the blogs is bad, false, and misleading but the rationale is that ‘if it gets the people to click on it and engage, then use it,' one site creator admitted."

(AFP/Getty)

A FLURRY OF POLLS:

-- NBC/WSJ/Marist says GEORGIA is deadlocked, with Trump up just one point (45-44). Donald is in pretty good shape in two other traditionally red states. Among likely voters, he has a five-point lead in ARIZONA and a nine-point lead in TEXAS.

-- A Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll shows Clinton and Trump deadlocked in NEW HAMPSHIRE at 42 percent. Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte leads Maggie Hassan by two points. 

-- A Simpson College/RABA Research poll shows Trump up just three points in IOWA (44-41). If Clinton wins, one in five Iowans said they do not think the country is ready for its first woman president. But three in four voters said they trust the election system.

-- Monmouth suggests that UTAH is moving back pretty comfortably into Trump's column. Independent Evan McMullin trails Trump by 13 points after being in the margin of recent polls.

-- Quinnipiac University has some fresh down-ballot numbers. Where four Republican incumbents stand: Richard Burr is down four in North Carolina, trailing Deborah Ross 49-45. Pat Toomey is within the margin of error in Pennsylvania, with the pollster saying it is “too close to call.” Marco Rubio is up six in Florida. Rob Portman is up 18 in Ohio! Remember, the Q poll had him down early on to Ted Strickland.

DISPATCHES FROM THE BATTLEGROUNDS:

-- “Officer slayings bring a new anguish to IOWA at end of a rancorous election,” by Colby Itkowitz and Mark Berman in Des Moines: “A day after police in Iowa captured a man they say killed two officers in a pair of brazen ambushes, authorities said they still didn’t know the motive for the ‘cowardly’ attacks, and residents grappled with their anguish. Scott Michael Greene, 46, whose relationship with his mother had disintegrated so badly that each received protective orders against the other, was formally charged with two counts of first-degree murder. He was taken from the hospital where he had been evaluated to the Polk County jail, restrained … by the handcuffs of the two slain officers. Outside the Des Moines police department, a steady stream of mourners gathered around a makeshift memorial — a parked patrol car barely visible under the flower bouquets, stuffed animals, condolence notes and children’s drawings. Mary White, 42, stood by the memorial with her arm around her 11-year-old son, Alex, their eyes both red-rimmed from crying. ‘Everybody is against everybody. Why? Why are we enemies?’

-- The Trump Effect: We're seeing an uptick in Latinos voting early across the country. From John Wagner, Anne Gearan and Jose A. DelReal: Hispanic voters represented 13.2 percent of all early voters in ARIZONA as of this week, up from 11 percent at the same point in 2012 and 8.1 percent in 2008. In NEVADA, Latinos make up 11.8 percent of early voters so far, compared with 10.5 percent in 2012 and 9.1 percent in 2008. And in FLORIDA, they accounted for 14.1 percent of all returned ballots as of Tuesday, up from 9.6 percent at the same point in 2008. ... COLORADO and VIRGINIA have also seen increases in Latino participation, state officials said. And in the traditionally red state of Texas, counties located along the Mexican border have seen large surges in early voters."

-- A Univision poll finds Clinton leading Trump by 30 points among FLORIDA Hispanics. This is remarkable when you consider that the state's Hispanics (because of the large, anti-communist Cuban population) used to favor Republicans. Her 60-30 advantage in the state is fueled largely by the influx of Puerto Ricans, who support her by a 71 percent margin. The Puerto Ricans put Obama over the top in the Sunshine State in 2012 too.

-- In PHOENIX, Tim Kaine delivered a speech entirely in Spanish as part of the Clinton campaign's broader effort to juice Latino turnout. Trump is "someone who thinks 'Latino outreach' means tweeting out a picture of a taco bowl,” said the vice presidential nominee. He blasted Trump for calling Alicia Machado “Miss Housekeeping" and suggesting that the Indiana-born judge Gonzalo Curiel is “biased” against Trump because of his Mexican heritage. (CNN)

-- Voter suppression? Reuters’ Julia Harte obtained emails that show NORTH CAROLINA state and county Republican officials lobbied members of at least 17 county election boards to keep early-voting sites open for shorter hours on weekends and in evenings - times that usually see disproportionately high turnout by Democratic voters.

--A federal judge rejected a PENNSYLVANIA GOP effort to roll back restrictions on poll watching rules. "There is no need for this judicial fire drill and [the Republican Party] offers no reasonable explanation or justification for the harried process they created," a U.S. District Judge wrote on Thursday. (Philadelphia Inquirer)

-- Barack and Michelle Obama will stump alongside Bill and Hillary on Election Eve in PHILADELPHIA. It will be the first time the couples appear together on the trail and shows the continuing significance of PENNSYLVANIA.

-- POTUS and FLOTUS cut a series of personalized radio ads targeting black voters The spots are specifically aimed at seven congressional districts with major African American populations — two in Florida, two in Nevada, one in California, one in Kansas and another in Nebraska. The ads will run on at least two popular stations per district, including hip-hop and R&B stations, running at least twice an hour until Election Day. "We have the opportunity to build on all the progress we've made, to fight for the issues you and I believe in," the president says in one ad. "I'm doing everything I can to make sure our Democrats all around the country have what they need to win, and that's why I need you." (CNN)

-- The Clinton campaign has reached out to “dozens” of Democratic House and Senate candidates this week to offer a formal endorsement and support from her massive digital organizing program. From Buzzfeed’s Ruby Cramer: “Clinton officials contacted a select group of House and Senate campaigns across the county with the same question: What do you need? On the table: Clinton’s endorsement, to use in whatever way best suits the candidate, along with a menu of options from the campaign’s digital field operation — social media posts, text messages, emails encouraging voters to volunteer, and access to Clinton’s online organizing tools. Dozens of Democratic House and Senate candidates — including in non-battleground states Indiana, New York, and California — heard from the campaign early this week, in most cases from one of its state directors.

Clinton and Kaine in Annandale, Virginia, this summer. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

-- “Republicans dare to hope: Did VIRGINIA get her swing back?” by Laura Vozzella and Jenna Portnoy: “Clinton is airing ads again in Virginia. ... Kaine will spend precious time campaigning in Northern Virginia and Richmond (on Monday). Polls are tightening. And so Republicans who long ago gave up any hope that Trump could win here are starting to wonder: Is Virginia back in play? When Trump returned with a $2 million television ad buy two weeks ago, even fellow Republicans panned the move as a financially unjustifiable face-saver, one meant to beat back rumors that he was pulling out of the state entirely. [Now], some Republicans who had privately thrown in the towel months ago were expressing newfound optimism Thursday. ‘It’s looking extremely close,’ [said one party official]. ‘I think what we’re seeing is ghosts of 2014 in terms of the closeness of the race.'"

"Terry McAuliffe has been determined to deliver the state for Clinton, staying in almost daily contact with Bill Clinton and Robby Mook, Clinton’s campaign manager who also led McAuliffe’s race for governor," Laura and Jenna note. "He has said publicly for months that he expected the race to tighten. In private, he continues to express confidence in the outcome."

-- Reality check: While Virginia will be closer than conventional wisdom currently suggests (never forget how close that 2013 governor's race wound up), Clinton is virtually certain to win.

A Roanoke College Poll this morning has Clinton up seven points post-Comey (45-38). Seven in 10 likely voters agreed Clinton is more qualified to be president than Trump.

People in the Trump high command do not think the commonwealth is winnable, which is why Donald is not traveling there. Democrats are only putting six figures into Virginia TV time, which is not very much when you consider how much cash she has on hand and the relative size of the Old Dominion.

David Wasserman, an editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, concurs: "Although absentee voting has been underwhelming in heavily black localities, it’s been impressive in Northern Virginia — and, for what it’s worth, in areas with pockets of Latino voters. Trump still has enormous problems with suburban, college-educated women, who are a huge voting force in places like Fairfax, Loudoun and Henrico counties.”

Hillary stumps with Bernie in Raleigh last night. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

THE LATEST ON THE EMAILS:

-- Deep divisions inside the FBI and the Justice Department over how to Clinton’s email investigation will likely fester even after Tuesday’s election -- and pose a significant test for Jim Comey’s leadership amid the infighting. From Matt Zapotosky, Rosalind S. Helderman, Sari Horwitz and Ellen Nakashima: “Although investigators had discovered the emails in early October, software glitches prevented them from separating [Huma Abedin]-related emails from the hundreds of thousands of messages recovered until Oct. 19 or 20." And while Comey had been quickly alerted by his deputy to the original find, he took no further action until the day after his final briefing on Oct. 27. “If Clinton is elected, Comey might have to contend with one or more investigations involving a sitting president. If she is not, he might face criticism for upending her bid."

-- Clinton declined on Thursday to say whether, if elected, she would ask the FBI director to resign: “I’m not going to, you know, either get ahead of myself by assuming I’ll be fortunate enough to be elected,” Clinton said in a radio interview. “That’s really up to you and your listeners.” She added she would also “never comment on any kind of, you know, personnel issue.”

-- Kaine said he is “puzzled” by Comey’s letter to Congress, but does not believe the decision was made with any sort of political motive: "I don't think he is trying to influence the outcome of the election, I don't question his integrity, but I do have serious questions about the judgment demonstrated by this … highly unusual letter that was so cryptic that he kind of had to do a do-over letter the next day that he put out next week," the senator said during a Fox radio interview on Thursday. His tone comes as a rhetorical softening from other Clinton allies, who have delivered harsher broadsides against the FBI director since his bombshell announcement. (Politico)

-- The State Department released more than 1,200 pages of new Clinton emails recovered from her server. Many of the documents, however, are near-duplicates of messages that have already been made public. (Politico's Josh Gerstein)

-- Dallas Observer, “The Dallas IRS Office That's Quietly Determining the Fate of the Clinton Foundation,” by Joe Pappalardo: “The Earle Cabell Federal Building in downtown Dallas is an all-purpose office complex, a bastion of federal bureaucracy. … Most people come for a passport or to get business done in front of a federal judge. But inside, a quiet review is underway that has direct ties to the raging presidential election: The local branch of the IRS' Tax Exempt and Government Entities Division is reviewing the tax status of the Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton Foundation. This IRS review has not generated similar waves as [DOJ] probes into the foundation, and has largely been forgotten in the campaign's melee. It's just not as sexy as private email servers, FBI infighting and charges of political pressure … But even though this examination is less scrutinized and is harder to conceptualize, it's impact may be important. The report won't likely be done in time to influence the presidential campaign — even though the review started more than four months ago — but it could certainly influence the first term of Hillary Clinton presidency.”

-- Should they keep control of the House in the next Congress, Republicans could easily launch impeachment proceedings, with political will as the most significant obstacle. From Mike DeBonis: “The House Judiciary Committee typically investigates charges of official wrongdoing and, if it finds them to be warranted, forwards articles of impeachment to the House floor.” Neither Oversight Chairman Jason Chaffetz nor Judiciary Committee Chairman Robert Goodlatte have called for Clinton’s impeachment, though they have made clear they intend to continue probing her emails: “In a joint letter sent Thursday, the two chairmen called on [Loretta Lynch] to preserve documents related to the email investigation, including the new evidence the FBI disclosed last week. [They] also asked the federal investigators to probe whether Clinton committed perjury during 2015 testimony.”

-- Nancy Pelosi said the premature talk of impeachment is “a brazen attempt to nullify the vote of the American people, outside our constitutional framework and destructive to the Framers’ intent.”

-- New York Times, “Family Disputes and a Nasty Can of Beans: Hillary Clinton as Litigator,” by Amy Chozick: “Mrs. Clinton’s 1970s-era adventures in the Arkansas bar could have provided some of the color for a John Grisham novel — or for a fish-out-of-water comedy like ‘My Cousin Vinny.’ … It was not glamorous: She represented a moving company whose customer had sued it for damaging a coffee table, a crop-duster who flew his airplane too close to his rice fields … and a canning company that was sued after a man opened his pork and beans and found the rear end of a rat. Yet a tour of Mrs. Clinton’s early work … turns up much of what would distinguish her as a politician many years later: Diligent preparation and a surgical approach to dismantling opposing arguments. A capacity for warmth with clients and adversaries alike. Toughness and deftness in the face of male condescension. And a minimal appetite for the spotlight, if not quite an aversion to it.”

Melanie Trump speaks in Berwyn, Pa. (AP/Patrick Semansky)

THE DAILY DONALD:

-- Melania Trump delivered rare public remarks in Pennsylvania, vowing to work against cyberbullying should her husband win. From Mary Jordan: “Our culture has gotten too mean and too rough,” she said – sounding nothing at all like Trump, whose insults and name-calling are a central part of his campaign. “As adults, many of us are able to handle mean words, even lies,” she said in a speech aimed at winning over more female voters. “They hurt when they are made fun of or made to feel less in looks or intelligence. We have to find a better way to talk to each other, to disagree with each other, to respect each other.”

But her calls for civility may have been too little, too late – as even some Trump supporters lamented the crude language often used by the Republican nominee online and on the campaign trail. “’I am a woman, and of course it bothers me,’ said Victoria Granero, 60, who still plans to vote for Trump. Noting that the Republican nominee is trailing badly with female voters and that his wife offered a refreshingly different approach … Granero was puzzled about only now getting to hear from Melania Trump. ‘Why didn’t he send her out earlier?’” she asked. “I don’t think she can help him now.”

Plagiarism watch: Journalists covering the speech quickly noticed that one of Melania’s optimistic mantras — "if you could dream it, you could become it" — was first uttered by Trump's second wife, Marla Maples, in 2011...

Reporters also had a field day highlighting examples of Donald cyber-bullying as Melania decried it:

-- Eric Trump made headlines of his own for suggesting that former Ku Klux Klan leader and Louisiana Senate candidate David Duke “deserves a bullet”: "Ross, it's disgusting and by the way, if I said exactly what you said, I'd get killed for it but I think I'll say it anyway," the younger Trump said in a Denver radio interview, after the host said Duke “deserves” to be shot. "The guy does deserve a bullet. I mean, these aren't good people. These are horrible people. In fact, I commend my father. My father's the first Republican who's gone out and said, 'Listen, what's happened to the African-American community is horrible and I'm going to take care of it.'" (CNN)

-- Ted Cruz stumped alongside Mike Pence in Iowa, but he carefully avoided ever using Trump’s name! He instead spoke in vague terms to the importance of “defeating Clinton” and keeping Congressional majorities. “We’re going to keep Republican control of the Senate and we’re going to defeat Hillary Clinton in this presidential election,” Cruz said. Paul Ryan, who reluctantly endorsed Trump, is also going to campaign with Pence. (Politico)

-- Marc Fisher, who co-authored The Post's Trump biography this summer, looks at how he might deal with a likely loss next week: “Losing to Clinton on Tuesday would be Trump’s most public and devastating failure. How does a man whose image is based on being the ultimate winner cope with losing? ... His behavior in defeat has stayed remarkably consistent throughout his career: He acts like it didn’t happen. Either he didn’t really lose, or it was someone else’s fault. At New York Military Academy, the boarding school where Trump spent much of his adolescence, his baseball coach and mentor, Theodore Dobias, saw Trump as a kid who ‘would do anything to win … [he] just wanted to be first, in everything, and he wanted people to know he was first.’ Losing, Trump has stated throughout his public life, is degrading, pathetic, unacceptable. ‘Man is the most vicious of all animals,’ he once told a writer, ‘and life is a series of battles ending in victory or defeat. You just can’t let people make a sucker out of you.’”

-- New York Times, “Trump’s Income Isn’t Always What He Says It Is, Records Suggest,” by Russ Beuttner: “[Trump] has repeatedly held out his financial disclosures as a justification for breaking with tradition and refusing to release his personal tax returns. ‘You don’t learn that much from tax returns,’ he said in September during his first debate … ‘You learn a lot from financial disclosure. And you should go down and take a look at that.’ But an examination of his tax appeals on several properties … shows that what Mr. Trump has reported on those forms is nowhere near a complete picture of his financial state. The records demonstrate that large portions of those numbers represent cash coming into his businesses before covering costs like mortgage payments, payroll and maintenance. After expenses, some of his businesses make a small fraction of what he reported on his disclosure forms, or actually lose money. … In fact, it is virtually impossible to determine from the forms just how much he is earning in any year.”

-- CNBC spoke to branding experts who identified “multiple reasons” why Trump’s campaign may not hurt his businesses in the long run: “Trump was disliked even before he launched his campaign and stuck to his brand of ‘aggressively’ marketing himself and ‘stirring emotions, said [one branding expert]. Consumers often discern between a product and the person behind it. ... Some [also] say Trump has won new support for future ventures, such as a rumored TV network, from a wider demographic — blue-collar Americans — even if some high-end consumers abandon him. ‘I think he could potentially lose more of his high-end customer base simply because they are not necessarily the ones in his voting demographic,’ [said another branding expert and author]. ‘But at the same time he could potentially have opened up a whole new market for himself in middle-market goods and services.'"

-- Trump is signaling interest in appointing Goldman Sachs alum Steven Mnuchin as Treasury secretary should he win. From Politico’s Zachary Warmbrodt: The decision comes as his transition team has been searching for private-sector executives who could be named to the Cabinet posting. But it is also totally at odds with Trumps rhetoric on the trail.

Demonstrators walk past a U.S. flag embroidered with Trump comments during a protest outside his D.C. hotel. (Reuters/Jonathan Ernst)

CONSERVATIVE ELITES MAKE THEIR CLOSING ARGUMENT AGAINST TRUMP:

-- “In a normal election, the FBI and WikiLeaks factors might be disqualifying," conservative commentator Charles Krauthammer writes. “[But] as final evidence of how bad are our choices in 2016, Trump’s liabilities, especially on foreign policy, outweigh hers. We are entering a period of unprecedented threat to the international order that has prevailed under American leadership since 1945. After eight years … the three major revisionist powers — Russia, China, and Iran — see their chance to achieve regional dominance and diminish, if not expel, American influence. At a time of such tectonic instability, even the most experienced head of state requires wisdom and delicacy to maintain equilibrium. Trump has neither. His joining of supreme ignorance to supreme arrogance, combined with a pathological sensitivity to any perceived slight, is a standing invitation to calamitous miscalculation. It took seven decades to build this open, free international order. It could be brought down in a single presidential term. That would be a high price to pay for the catharsis of kicking over a table.

-- From Post columnist and former Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson: “I never imagined that Republican leaders — many of whom I know and have respected — would fall in line with such dangerous delusions, on the theory that anything is better than [Clinton]. Most options are better than Clinton. But not all. And not this. The GOP has largely accommodated itself to a candidate with no respect for, or knowledge of, the constitutional order. Every constitutional conservative should be revolted. Those who are complicit have adopted a particularly dangerous form of power-loving hypocrisy. It is almost beyond belief that Americans should bless and normalize Trump’s appeal. Normalize vindictiveness and prejudice. Normalize conspiracy theories and the abandonment of reason. Normalize every shouted epithet, every cruel ethnic and religious stereotype, every act of bullying in the cause of American ‘greatness’ … In the end, a Trump victory would normalize the belief that the structures of self-government are unequal to the crisis of our time. And this would not merely replace the presidential portrait above the fireplace. It would deface it.”

-- “Trump doesn’t happen in a more or less united party, he happens in a broken one,” writes WSJ columnist Peggy Noonan. “But the split in the party happened in the past 15 years. When you give a party two unwon wars, one a true foreign-policy catastrophe, and a great recession, it will begin to break because its members lose confidence in its leaders. When the top of the party believes in things that the bottom of the party doesn’t want (on immigration, entitlements and trade), things will break further. The bottom will begin to feel the top no longer cares about it. That will end their loyalty. Mr. Trump’s Republican foes are wrong in thinking his followers are just sticking with the party. They’re not, they’ve broken from the party. In such circumstances the base of a party will do surprising things, such as turn, in hopeful desperation, to a strange outsider in hopes maybe he can break through the mess.”

-- “Trump doesn’t happen in a more or less united party, he happens in a broken one,” Peggy Noonan writes in her Wall Street Journal column. “But the split in the party happened in the past 15 years. When you give a party two unwon wars, one a true foreign-policy catastrophe, and a great recession, it will begin to break because its members lose confidence in its leaders. When the top of the party believes in things that the bottom of the party doesn’t want (on immigration, entitlements and trade), things will break further. The bottom will begin to feel the top no longer cares about it. That will end their loyalty. Mr. Trump’s Republican foes are wrong in thinking his followers are just sticking with the party. They’re not, they’ve broken from the party. In such circumstances the base of a party will do surprising things, such as turn, in hopeful desperation, to a strange outsider in hopes maybe he can break through the mess.”

-- Perspective --> “Election maps are telling you big lies about small things,” by Lazaro Gamio: In 2012, about the same number of votes were cast in these 160 counties as were cast in the rest of the country. But, your run-of-the-mill election map won't show you that:

If you chart the states by electoral votes, a more accurate picture of which states will elect Trump or Clinton emerges. In contrast to a standard geographic map, this cartogram shrinks the country's expansive Republican center and exaggerates the small, electoral-vote-rich Northeast:

-- “Victims turn table on Internet ‘troll,’ win $1.4 million civil award,” by Justin Jouvenal: “William Moreno said the campaign of Internet trolling he and his family endured was as vicious as it was unrelenting. A SWAT team was sent to their Virginia home, false charges were filed against him and he was accused online of molesting a girl. The ‘reign of terror,’ as he described it, was so bad that Moreno said he eventually tried to take his own life. Now, he and his family have finally turned the tables on one of the men they accused of tormenting them, winning a $1.4 million civil judgment in court. The ruling by a Loudoun County jury late last month is one of the largest in an Internet trolling case in the nation’s history. The family doubts it will ever collect the full sum but hopes the verdict is a warning to cyberbullies everywhere. ‘It’s important to realize that cyberbullying can lead to this horrible stuff that spills into the real world,’ said Sharon Moreno. ‘It’s especially difficult for vulnerable people.’”

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

Trump’s campaign released a new ad seeking to tie Clinton to “pervert” Anthony Weiner: The 30-second spot seeks to characterize Clinton as unfit for the presidency based on the FBI’s decision to reopen its investigation. Watch it here:

Kaine got a very positive shoutout on Facebook from an old roommate:

A few reactions to Eric Trump's comment that David Duke "deserves a bullet":

Consider this tortured thought from Jason Chaffetz:

Jon Ralston is summing up our feelings just a few days out:

Paul Ryan's staff is denying this possibility:

Celebrities are urging people to vote:

Scott Walker celebrated National Sandwich Day:

After the Wall Street Journal fronted a story on Arkansas claiming that it invented queso -- which Texas strongly disputes -- John Cornyn challenged Tom Cotton to a queso taste-off:

GOOD READS FROM ELSEWHERE:

-- New York Times, “These Officials Help Write Ballot Questions. Companies Write Them Checks,” by Eric Lipton and Robert Faturechi: “Big-money corporate lobbying has reached into one of the most obscure corners of state government: the offices of secretaries of state, the people charged with running elections impartially. The targeting of secretaries of state with campaign donations, corporate-funded weekend outings and secret meetings with industry lobbyists reflects an intense focus on often overlooked ballot questions, which the secretaries frequently help write. The ballot initiatives are meant to give voters a direct voice on policy issues … But corporate and other special interests are doing their best to build close ties with the secretaries because a difference of even a few words on a ballot measure can have an enormous impact on the outcome.” Secretaries of state from Washington, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada – all Republicans – participated  in closed-door meetings with [corporate lobbyists] … [Now], the influence campaign has intensified, with more citizen-driven ballot initiatives to be decided on Election Day this year than at any time in the past decade.”

HOT ON THE LEFT

“Catholic parish's bulletin says Democratic voters are doomed to hell, Clinton is satanic,” from The San Diego Union-Tribune: “Between requests for prayers for the sick and a notice for an upcoming chastity luncheon, a newsletter from a Catholic church in Old Town that doubles as an election-day polling site included a flier that told parishioners they’ll go to hell if they vote for Democrats. Two Sundays later, the message had changed: Satan was working through former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The Oct. 16 bulletin from the Immaculate Conception Catholic Church was stuffed with a flyer written in both English and Spanish that cited five legislative policies — support for abortion, same-sex marriage, euthanasia, human cloning, and embryonic stem cell research — that will doom a politician and their supporters to eternal damnation. ‘It is a mortal sin to vote Democrat … immediately after death the souls of those who die in a state of mortal sin descend into hell,’ the flyer said.”

 

HOT ON THE RIGHT

“Man builds cage to protect Trump campaign sign,” by ABC 13/WMAZ: “As car after car drives past Jim Poe's front yard …, many drivers have been turning their heads and even honking their horns. The eye-grabbing attraction is four metal poles and barbed wire fencing in a metal cage that is anchored into the ground. Inside the cage stands a large [Trump] campaign sign. On the front of the cage are two signs. One reads ‘POSTED. NO TRESPASSING. KEEP OUT.’ The second reads ‘TRESSPASS (sic) WILL BE SHOT’ Early this year, Poe put a small Trump campaign sign in his front yard with no protection around it. Poe said someone stole it, so he put an even larger sign in his yard with barbed wire around it. Someone went through the barbed wire and also stole that sign. ‘So I went a step further and built this steel cage, which is anchored in the ground … we are getting ready to put spotlights on it,’ Poe said. He said he plans to leave the sign up, regardless of Tuesday’s verdict.”

DAYBOOK:

On the campaign trail:

Trump speaks in Atkinson, N.H., Wilmington, Ohio and Hershey, Pa.

Clinton rallies supporters in Pittsburgh and Detroit.

Kaine is in Melbourne, Fla.

Pence is in Lansing, Mich., Greenville, N.C. and Miami, Fla.

Bill Clinton stops in Pueblo, Denver and Fort Collins, Colo.

Sanders is in Davenport, Iowa City and Cedar Falls, Iowa and Omaha, Neb.

At the White House: 

Obama speaks in Fayetteville and Charlotte, N.C.

Biden is in Madison, Wis.

On Capitol Hill: The Senate and House are out.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: 

Georgia Republican Gov. Nathan Deal attacked opponents of an education ballot initiative he is pushing by referring to “COLORED PEOPLE”: “The irony of some of the groups who are opposing doing something to help these minority children is beyond my logic,” he said. “If you want to advance the state of colored people, start with their children.” (Fox 5 Atlanta)

A mockup of the proposed gondola system on the Potomac.

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

-- Could gondolas connecting Rosslyn and Georgetown become the future of travel for beltway area commuters? A new study found the method would be both a legal and feasible endeavor. Officials found that the proposed transit system would serve at least 6,500 passengers crossing between D.C. and Arlington, and could improve transit options for commuters facing heavy morning traffic and a host of problems imperiling the Metro rail. (Perry Stein)

-- A breezy day that (sort of) feels like fall, the Capital Weather Gang forecasts: “It’s somewhat windy but at least skies are mainly sunny! Drier, cooler air is riding on the coattails of 15-25 mph north-northwesterly winds. There may be a slight wind chill, despite high temperatures around 60 to the mid-60s. Have one extra layer or wind breaker on-hand. Okay, maybe a light coat if walking on the shady side of the street!”

-- The school bus driver in the deadly Baltimore crash that killed him and five others earlier this week was no longer authorized to be driving with a commercial license. The 67-year-old, whose vehicle collided with a Maryland Transit commuter bus during rush hour, reportedly failed to provide required medical information to state regulators. (Dan Morse)

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

A crowd of 5,200 came to see Hillary, Bernie and Pharrell in Raleigh last night:

The Cubs returned to Wrigley Field as World Series champions:

Obama alumni are urging votes for Clinton:

Watch Senate Democratic women talk about the rules of "Girl Club":

VIDEO

Seth Meyers walked through the state of the polls:

VIDEO

What if Obama were Trump? College Humor imagined it:

VIDEO

"Girls" star Lena Dunham released a "pantsuit anthem":

VIDEO

Finally, please join us on Facebook and at the Washington Post homepage for live election night coverage:



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Stuck between a rock and a hard placem: An explanation of Apple’s new MBP

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Stuck between a rock and a hard place

An explanation of the disappointment of Apple’s new MacBook Pro

It’s been 4 years since the last substantial update to the MacBook Pro. The exact reasons why Apple decided to neglect their pro equipment, and why they still have not updated the Mac Pro or the iMac are known only to Apple, but it seems reasonable to assume that if Mac’s were still their main profit generator that this would not have happened. The iPhone is updated like clockwork at the same time every year.

This would have been a lot more tolerable if Apple had communicated the fact that they’d start ignoring their pro line of products in advance, so people could plan around it. People could have avoided waiting literally several years to upgrade thinking that there must be one coming just around the corner.

It is adding insult to injury that before Apple became a powerhouse of a company that produces consumer electronics for information consumption, rather than information production, it was the creative pro users who were their most loyal and vocal fans. Apple would probably not exist today if it were not for this core base of users that stuck with Apple while it was the underdog for so many years.

Today, things have changed. Apple no longer needs creative types. The profit from selling just the iPhone is about the same as the entire PC industry (Mac and Windows) combined, both at about $120 billion / year.

Which is why, after a hiatus of several years, people were very interested to see what Apple would come out with. There was speculation before the release: Was the delay due to Apple transitioning from Intel processors to their own ARM processors manufactured in house? Had they been spending all this time integrating 3D XPoint (futuristic storage) technology into their laptop range? Hopes flourished in the space of uncertainty leading up to the release.

They finally did release it, and it immediately seemed underwhelming by any standard: A thinner laptop, which aside from the TouchBar which many people consider a gimmick, mostly seems to amount to a series of spec bumps. It has a slightly more modern CPU. An incrementally faster GPU. A screen with the same resolution, albeit with a wider color display and higher contrast and brightness. And most worrisome of all, it is still capped to 16GB of RAM, which has been available in their laptops for nearly a decade now. I was very disappointed myself. Amongst other things I make and sell neural nets for a living, and running this one on an image more than around 5 megapixels tends to create a 32GB swap file on my 16GB 2015 MBP, so I was really hoping for a machine with a 64GB RAM option for multimedia creation.

Predictably, there has been an onslaught on Apple’s design decisions from the masses, however most of it seems based upon a misunderstanding:

• Why is it limited to 16GB of RAM? Supporting more RAM would just require a bigger battery, so instead of making it thinner, they could have included 32GB of RAM and kept it the same width as the previous model

Although this is technically true, there is a little-known legal obstacle to this: The Federal Aviation Administration has capped the maximum allowable size of laptop batteries on flights to 100 watt-hours. That explains why Apple’s 2015 pro model contains precisely a 99.5 watt-hour battery. Although the recent MBP release only contains a 76 watt-hour battery, due to the fact that there is no low-power RAM available in greater than 16GB capacities for Intel’s latest mobile CPU it can be argued that Apple are still working within that 100 watt-hour ceiling, and that they are using the best components that they can given that ceiling.

Using the other 24 watt-hours available wouldn’t be enough to move the RAM & CPU up to the desktop counterparts in their laptop and still have reasonable battery life, so given the components they are restricted to using a 76 watt-hour battery is enough. With no such ceiling maybe they would have used very different components and created a larger machine. Since that was never an option that is a moot point.

This is also why the only laptops currently available which support >16GB RAM are huge, like this one which weighs 17 pounds (8KG). This battery capacity limitation goes a long way to explaining a lot of the problems with current laptops from all manufacturers. It’s also probably the main defining force of this iteration of the MacBook Pro. Apple were determined to have a reasonably long battery life, and everything else they did had to be designed around the limited size of the battery. They couldn’t have made it bigger or more powerful if they wanted to.

• The TouchBar is a gimmick, and they could have just made the screen itself touch sensitive

Apple said that they prototyped this and it didn’t work out, and I tend to believe them. User input is something that’s hard to get right for everybody at once, and it seems like we’re just going to have to wait and see how it works out before judging this. My perspective of it has improved since I ran the TouchBar in the Simulator in the latest version of XCode, which emulates it by putting it on the screen.touchbaremulator

I have gotten the opportunity to see how it works in practice and it’s better than I thought it’d be after I saw it onstage. My guess is that they have not nailed the entire future of user interaction on laptops with one fell swoop with this, but whether it becomes a genuinely useful tool and the beginning of future paradigm shifting design iterations is yet to be seen.

The dial with the new Microsoft Surface Studio certainly looks sexy and has the wow factor, but it is too soon to call it the winner yet. I will be interested to see in a year from now which input method is the most used and the most supported. Any predictions which declare either the winner at this point are too early.

• The GPU is disappointingly underpowered. They are up against things like the 1060 from Nvidia which is more than 3 times faster

This is about that battery restriction again. The 1060 draws 75 watts and the AMD Radeon which Apple uses uses draws a mere 35 watts. Given that these are the power draws under maximum loads, out of all of the criticisms of the new MBP in my opinion this one is the most valid. Apple could have included an Nvidia 1060 and under maximum load the battery would have drained a lot more quickly, but MBP’s have had on the fly GPU switching (from the integrated GPU on the processor to the discrete GPU) for years now, so they could have achieved this. But they have their reasons. I imagine when you’re working on that scale, including a GPU which makes the battery drain nearly twice as fast would result in a backlash from a certain percentage of their confused consumers.

• The storage capacity in the base models as the same as it was before

Apple’s internal storage speed is in line with the industry’s best, and the prices that they charge tend to be less than the competitors. On the contrary, Apple has stopped overcharging for its internal storage recently.

• It’s increasing the need for dongles

In the long term it’s doing the exact opposite: It’s finally setting USB-C/thunderbolt as the standard. It is pushing the industry along, like it has many times before by abandoning obsolete technologies. And thunderbolt is indeed making a lot of connection technologies obsolete, but due to the lack of support or peripherals for it it is now time for the industry to catch up. In the future we’ll be seeing USB-C everything.

With those things covered most of the design limitations due to the battery restriction for the other criticisms seem obvious. If you think about it, what would you have liked them to have included that is not affected by the power limitation?

And with all that said, personally I would by something like this oversized PC laptop monstrosity in a heart beat if it could run macOS, because I am (computational) power mad. But I do understand that if Apple were to release something like that that they would come up against far greater criticism than they are now. Their reputation is based on building reliable products that work well under normally balanced circumstances. Due to Intel’s lack of support for lower power RAM in capacities greater than 16GB in its latest laptop sized CPU’s, Apple’s arms really are tied, and it is Intel that dropped the ball in this respect, not Apple.

With peoples emotions running high over Apple’s latest release, we have missed the good news

Considering that today’s fastest SSD’s top out at about 2500 megabytes a second, and that the standard-until-now USB 3 has an upper limit of 640 megabytes per second, the new MacBook Pro’s 4 ports each with bidirectional (up and down simultaneously) 5 gigabytes per second is insane, and it is the first time that anybody has achieved this in the laptop market. The future of this is extremely exciting.

The 3rd party innovation opportunity here is huge. I predict that in the coming months and years we’ll be seeing thunderbolt connected external SSD’s with speeds that far exceed the internal SSD’s speed. I don’t see any reason why it wouldn’t be possible right now to create an obscenely fast RAID array of SATA SSD’s in a box on the end of a thunderbolt cable, and create the worlds fastest consumer storage drive by stacking up the drives. We are finally not limited by the speed of SATA at a measly half gigabyte per second, which has been the bottleneck in external I/O for many years now throughout the entire PC industry.

By having all of this bandwidth and power (100 watts over USB-C, and the MBP can output 15 watts itself on a USB-C cable out) available over these ports we’ll be seeing innovations we haven’t even thought of yet. And having power run over the same cable is just the icing on the cake, now there is no reason that thunderbolt cannot become a power connection standard, having it coming out the walls to power everything from kettles to lamps to tv’s to computers. We’ve been seeing ridiculous USB devices for years such as usb powered fans, robotic cats, etc for years, showing that the market has a willingness to create these things, and they only had 4.5 watts to work with. Now, with the advent of USB-C with its 100W available, it’s finally possible to make actually useful USB-C powered peripherals.

Even just having a standardized power supply will be a game changer. It’ll mean that we can have a battery pack standard that will power multiple devices. Imagine being able to have a USB-C charger which will power your flashlight, power your TV when you go camping, and recharge your MBP, all with the same battery with a single USB-C out cable. Part of the attraction of USB-C is that the device will draw the amount of power that it needs, so compatibility amongst all our devices can finally arrive. Pairing that with huge amounts of data what else could anybody want out of a connection standard? The industry for USB-C devices hasn’t even started yet, but if Apple continue to set industry standards like they have in the past, it’s going to be massive.


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MacBook Pro review: the Air apparent

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If you’re a fan of Apple laptops, I’ve got some good news and some bad news. The good news: Apple has finally updated its Pro laptop line with some genuinely new and powerful options. Even better, the new MacBook Pro has been shrunken down to the degree of serving as the MacBook Air’s spiritual successor, which is what many of us had been hoping for all along. The bad news? Apple isn’t just giving, it’s also taking away.

At first blush, the new 13-inch MacBook Pro, sans fancy Touch Bar, looks like the perfect replacement for my aged MacBook Air from 2013. It’s the thinnest and lightest Pro ever, and it provides the display and performance upgrades my three-year-old laptop has been in desperate need of. Costing $1,499, it sits right in the middle between Apple’s $1,299 MacBook and the new $1,799 MacBook Pro with a Touch Bar and four Thunderbolt ports. It’s like the Air, in that it bridges the gap between Apple’s most portable and most powerful mobile computers, but it does so in an interesting new way.

Without the much-ballyhooed additions of Touch Bar interactions and Touch ID on the pricier new MacBook Pro models — which won’t be shipping for weeks — this more basic MBP is essentially the professionalization of the 12-inch MacBook. It’s a bigger and significantly more powerful version of that super-thin machine. More of a pro MacBook than a MacBook Pro.

macbook pro 2016
If you wanted a bigger and more powerful MacBook, this is it

Why does it feel more like a MacBook? Well, just look at it. The familiar MagSafe charger is gone, retired along with Apple’s SD card reader, HDMI output, and old-school USB ports. This $1,499 MacBook Pro strips connectivity down to just a headphone jack on its right side and two USB-C ports with Thunderbolt 3 on the left. That’s it. You also get the new option to style it out in a handsome space gray and an upgraded version of the MacBook’s super flat butterfly-mechanism keyboard. All of this, along with the solid-state Force Touch trackpad, expresses Apple’s modernized laptop design, whose signature change is the frenzied push of USB-C as the unitary replacement for all the world’s ports. Apple is determined to force the future into existence, and this laptop is just the next logical step.

Logical though it may be for Apple, this MacBook Pro presents a dichotomy. Professional video editors and photographers have been waiting for a new Pro laptop — but this midrange MacBook Pro probably isn’t that. Instead, the world’s coffee shops are filled with nomadic professionals seeking an Apple computer to replace the much more ubiquitous, but now dated, MacBook Air. So while Apple has been busy crafting the Pro MacBook, the way it will be received by most people is the way that I’m addressing it today: as a Pro MacBook Air.

macbook pro 2016

The MacBook Air kicked off the ultrabook trend among laptops before Intel even coined that term. Its familiar wedge shape has been copied by almost everyone, and it has served as a benchmark for thinness, battery life, and industrial design in its category. But the Air design hasn’t changed in six long years. In the meantime, Lenovo’s Yoga laptops reinvented the hinge, Dell’s XPS 13 reinvented the display, Razer reinvented the keyboard, and Microsoft reconfigured our entire idea of a laptop. The Air once stood alone as an ultra-portable with negligible compromises, but now there’s competition, and the Air has fallen dramatically behind with its anachronistic, washed-out screen.

So Apple’s first task is to simply get its slimmest 13-inch laptop back on par with its Windows rivals. And it all starts with the industrial design.

Apple’s industrial design remains best-in-classmacbook pro 2016

The new MacBook Pro is precision engineering at its absolute finest. Run your finger along the spartan, portless side of this laptop and you won’t detect even a millimeter’s discrepancy between the bottom chassis and the top lid. They are two separate parts, but when the MacBook Pro is closed, they feel like one cohesive, solid slab of aluminum. The final vestiges of plastic on the exterior have been shorn off, replaced by a metal bottom to the display and a sapphire glass Apple logo that no longer lights up. Yes, this is very much the MacBook design scaled up.

(One advantage to the new Apple logo is that you’ll no longer see its ghostly presence on your screen when there’s a strong light behind your laptop. That used to frustrate me on sunny days with the Air, and it felt like a distinctly un-Apple-like oversight in the overall design.)

The interior of the new MacBook Pro is another spot that will be familiar to MacBook users, but largely foreign to everyone else. The keyboard’s keys seem to have been melted down into millimeter-thick slabs: they’re wider and a little more densely packed than on an Air or earlier Pro models. I found them alien at first, but once I stopped "testing the keyboard" and just started typing naturally, I found my rhythm and was quickly up to full speed — after a while, these larger keys start to feel like big input islands that are hard to miss. Their key travel is a shallow 0.55mm, which won’t be to everyone's taste, but this updated MBP keyboard definitely has a better feel than the practically flat one on the MacBook.

The Rolls-Royce of touchpads, offering outsized luxury and unerring operation

Apple’s touchpad on this year’s MacBook Pro is something special. It spans the entire height of the wrist rest and half the width. It’s enormous, limousine-sized, and seemingly excessive, but I love it. The vastness of this thing means it’s always within easy reach, and because it’s built using Force Touch — simulating the tactile response of a click without ever moving — I can click the top of it in a way that I can’t do with the mechanical switch of my MacBook Air. I also like this new touchpad for the sheer visual appeal: compared to older versions, it looks like a display that’s had its bezels removed; like cutting-edge, space-maximizing technology. Not being mechanical also means it’ll stay this way for years, whereas my Air’s more conventional trackpad has developed a slight creaking habit.

Compared to my MacBook Air, the new Pro has a much smaller footprint, yet feels larger and more accommodating in use. That's mostly thanks to the touchpad, but the larger keys on the keyboard also help. The display’s bezels are vastly thinner and with the stereo speakers sitting either side of the keyboard, Apple has basically left no wasted space on the 13-inch MacBook Pro. There’s even a double-wide Escape key, perhaps to make up for its loss on the MacBook Pro with Touch Bar.

macbook pro 2016

I’m writing this entire review on the 2016 MacBook Pro and I frankly don’t want to go back to typing on my Air. It’s a universally better experience. If you were still harboring reservations about either the flatter keyboard or artificially clicking touchpad of the MacBook, this new MBP is sure to allay them in a hurry.

The absolute biggest upgrade for any Air user will be the display. The new Pro’s 2560 x 1600 display is gorgeous, from literally any angle, and it matches the wider color gamut of the latest iPhone 7 models and Apple’s 5K iMac. Even for existing MacBook Pro users, this is a nice step up in contrast and brightness (now 500 nits versus the prior model’s 300), both of which are 67 percent higher. Apple may be killing us softly with all these incremental upgrades, but they really do add up to a supremely well-designed machine.

The same wide color gamut as on the 5K iMac and iPhone 7, now on a laptop

macbook pro 2016

Beside its great build quality and fantastic display, the new MacBook Pro also performs superbly. I am swiping between desktops and darting in and out of heavy-duty apps like Adobe’s Lightroom and Photoshop with perfect ease and fluidity. The external polish is very much matched by the internal performance, and I struggle to imagine scenarios where anyone would feel constrained by this, the so-called entry-level, Pro laptop. It’s not a cheap computer by any means, so you should expect nothing less, of course.

I would go further and say that if you’re not involved in high-volume, high-resolution photo or video processing, you should just stick with the basic 2GHz Core i5 CPU and 8GB of RAM. Anything else would be overkill for most people.

Any doubts about why this new MacBook Pro exists while being so similar to the MacBook should really be extinguished by its performance. The Pro has a much more powerful processor and smoother graphics to go along with a significantly improved keyboard and a titanic trackpad. The MacBook is still the better computer to take on a flight with you, but the MacBook Pro approaches its level of portability while offering vastly more power and a longer-lasting battery.

Like an artfully carved chess set without a queen, this laptop is lovely but is missing vital pieces

It’s at this point that I would have expected to be able to say to Air users that they can stop reading and should just go buy the new MacBook Pro. But Apple’s futurism has expressed itself in less advantageous ways, too. The Cupertino company has both given and taken away.

macbook pro 2016

For starters, the SD card slot is gone from the new MacBook Pro. A company that built up its entire product line on the adulation and money of professional photographers is now turning its back on them and blowing up the best bridge between the tools of their trade: camera and laptop. Without an SD card slot in the computer, we’re left having to tote an adapter everywhere ($50 when bought from Apple), or buying a USB-C cable for our cameras ($30), or relying on entirely unreliable wireless transfer apps. Maybe that’s fine on the MacBook, but it’s not okay on the MacBook Pro.

Apple’s solution for everything cabled is now a combined Thunderbolt 3 and USB-C port, of which the company provides two on the Touch Bar-deprived MacBook Pro I am reviewing. Is there any technical reason why this computer couldn’t have four, like the $1,799 model with a Touch Bar? Nope, it all comes down to price. Two USB-C ports are still double the number I’d get on a MacBook, but they’re both on the left side of the MBP and are compatible with nothing I own other than, amusingly, my Android phones.

The future may be wireless, but the present is full of dongles

The cool thing about the pricier MacBook Pros is that they split their USB-C ports evenly, two on each side, and since you can use any one of them to charge, that lets you pick which side to plug the charger into. I’ve always thought that an underrated advantage of Google’s Chromebook Pixel, but in Apple’s world, $1,499 is apparently not enough to unlock ambidextrous convenience. The MacBook Pro does have a headphone jack, unlike the new iPhone 7, but that’s hardly a consolation since buying the two devices together would mean either carrying around two sets of headphones or always having yet another dongle with you.

macbook pro 2016

Apple has chosen one unifying port for everything that plugs into the Mac, and it has one unifying port for everything connecting to the iPhone. But the problem is that they’re not the same port. If I want to plug an iPhone into my MacBook Pro, I’ll need a dongle or a new cable ($25 from Apple), and neither is provided with either Macs or iPhones. And there’s no interchanging iPad peripherals with MacBook Pro ones, even as the two devices continue along a path toward converging into one.

If I want to connect an external hard drive to back up my MacBook Pro data, I’ll need a USB adapter ($19).

If I want to plug into Ethernet because the Wi-Fi around me sucks, I’ll need a new dongle ($35), different from those already in existence for prior MacBooks.

If I want to connect to an external display or projector to do a work presentation, I’ll have to choose between the VGA dongle ($40) or the AV multiport dongle that includes HDMI ($69).

If I bought into Apple’s previous Thunderbolt promotions and have any Thunderbolt accessories, those will need an adapter, too ($49).

You can find most — if not all — of these adapters for less money than what Apple is charging. But many people won’t bother. And for those who do, the quality and consistency of USB-C hubs leaves a lot to be desired right now.

macbook pro 2016

Stare long enough into the immaculate, minimalist symmetry of that pair of USB-C ports, and you too might perceive the alluring future of personal computers. The future. But we live in a present where Windows XP is still widely used by businesses resistant to change. A world where the aforementioned VGA port is still the likeliest way to get visuals off your laptop in a boardroom meeting. And that thing’s almost as old as I am!

Apple is making users adapt to it when it should be adapting to users

Apple is forcing me to accept the loss of compatibility with USB sticks, USB drives, USB Ethernet adapters, HDMI cables, and, most painfully, MagSafe chargers, all because it’s decided to be impatient about the future. I’m not disputing the advantages of standardizing around USB-C, but I question how fast others will follow Apple’s lead here — MacBooks don’t have quite the same industry-wide influence as iPhones — and in turn how quickly this inconvenience will disappear for people like me. Apple could have at least kept the SD card slot alive, as a gesture to some of its most loyal fans and to ease the transition.

The MagSafe charger has been another mainstay of Apple laptops for years, latching magnetically into place with ease and disconnecting just as easily should the power cable get yanked away. Its plug has an LED light that indicates charging status. It gently decouples from the laptop without needing your intervention. It’s kind of perfect.

In its place, Apple’s new USB-C connector is hard to pull out and requires actual attention while doing so. There’s no charging indicator, either — though there is a little jingle, just as with your phone, when the charger is successfully connected. This change is good in that it moves Apple to a broader industry standard, but bad in that it downgrades the convenience and ease of use of the entire laptop.

macbook pro 2016

Battery life on this new MacBook Pro doesn’t rival the Air’s 12 hours, but it does achieve Apple’s claimed 10 hours. I’m a writer, so my typical use may be a bit more forgiving than other professionals, however I keep seeing a perfect match between remaining percentage and hours of battery life left: 56 percent equals five and a half hours, 22 percent will get me two and a quarter hours, and so on. Apple seems to have very deliberately targeted 10 hours as its goal and benchmark. You can expect to get less if you throw some intensive photo or video editing at this MacBook Pro, but I have little to no worries about the battery; it lasts a consistently long time. And don’t forget that you’re getting a more productive machine: editing photos on the Air’s old and faded display was essentially color guesswork, whereas Apple’s new laptop would delight photographers if only it offered them a way to get their photos onto the damn thing.

For the first time in seven years, I’m not sure that my next laptop will be a MacBook

While the display, build quality, and looks of the new MacBook Pro are beyond reproach, they’re no longer beyond the competition. Lenovo’s ThinkPad X1 Yoga has a spectacular OLED display. Dell’s XPS 13 has great battery life and design. HP’s EliteBook Folio has a hinge that folds out to a full 180 degrees, whereas Apple’s laptops have always been limited to opening to a little bit beyond vertical. Razer’s Blade Stealth has a 4K touchscreen, Thunderbolt 3, and the latest seventh-gen Intel processors, whereas Apple is still using sixth-gen chips. Why does any of that matter? It matters because this new MacBook Pro’s compromises are large enough to make me, a loyal and satisfied MacBook user for seven years, look outside the cozy confines of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple has built a beautiful computer with all the upgrades I wanted, but it’s taken away things that I actually need, and now I’m looking elsewhere.

To Apple’s credit, there’s no single Windows laptop that yet matches all of the MacBook line’s key strengths — touchpad ergonomics, battery life, display, and industrial design — but Apple’s changes have now created an opportunity that didn’t exist before. All a Windows vendor needs to do to convince me is to build something as good as a MacBook and then top it off with a simple SD card slot. macOS isn’t as major an advantage as it used to be, especially for someone like me whose professional life revolves around Google and Adobe’s cloud services.

macbook pro 2016

When it launched the MacBook in 2015, Apple wasn’t shy about claiming it had reinvented the laptop. With the benefit of some hindsight, I’d argue Apple only reinvented its own product line. Copycat designs have arisen, as they always do, but the MacBook’s biggest impact so far has been within Apple’s walled-in ecosystem. We can see more of the new MacBook’s DNA in the new MacBook Pro than original MacBook Pro features. This is just the way Apple laptops are made now and we can either learn to like it or go elsewhere.

Apple could have been a USB-C trailblazer even while retaining a classic USB port and SD card slot

And that, frankly, is the problem here. Apple is trying to return to its old habit of dragging us forward into the future like a wild-eyed inventor, but this time it might have cut a little too deep into present-day functionality while trying to promote tomorrow’s technology. Apple could have been a major trailblazer for USB-C even while retaining a classic USB port and a photographer-friendly SD card slot. I don’t think those things would have disrupted the MacBook Pro’s scrupulously perfected proportions or Apple’s bottom line too much.

I don’t know if I’ll be buying this MacBook Pro, in spite of its superb design and performance, and that’s surprising to me.

There’s no doubt that this is the best computer for current MacBook Air owners to upgrade to, should they be unwilling or uninterested in giving Windows or Chrome OS a shot. I’m also confident that this 13-inch MacBook Pro is a better, more versatile, functional, and powerful laptop than the 12-inch MacBook, so I’d recommend spending the extra cash if those are your only choices. Having used Apple’s Touch Bar on the more expensive MacBook Pros, I’d say that’s an intriguing and nicely executed addition, but the price for those models is really quite silly right now.

macbook pro 2016

But think carefully before you decide that you’re irrevocably locked into the Apple ecosystem. If its future is going to be characterized by such hostile decisions as the removal of the headphone jack from the iPhone or the scything off of the beloved MagSafe and SD card slot from laptops, maybe Apple isn’t your best friend anymore. Can this company continue to claim it’s looking out for its users’ best interests while discarding some of their most necessary tools?

The new MacBook Pro is as beautiful and desirable as ever, but using it is alienating to anyone living in the present. I agree with Apple’s vision of the future. I’m just not buying it today.



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